比特幣（BTC）價格週期理論受到威脅，投資者可以看到比特幣歷史上的第一個獨特週期

自創建以來，比特幣價格始終以周期性的模式移動，這是由不同的向上，側向和向下移動的定義。但是，這種循環理論似乎受到威脅，而主要的加密貨幣似乎違背了趨勢。

The Bitcoin price is believed to have always moved in a cyclical pattern — defined by distinct periods of upward, sideways, and downward movements — since its creation. However, this cycle theory appears to be under threat, with the premier cryptocurrency seemingly moving against the trend.

自創建以來，比特幣價格始終以周期性的模式移動，這是由不同的向上，側向和向下移動的定義。但是，這種循環理論似乎受到威脅，而主要的加密貨幣似乎違背了趨勢。

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, who had proclaimed that the BTC bull cycle is over in March 2025, reviewed his analysis and floated the idea that the Bitcoin price could break out of the usual cyclical trends. Another on-chain expert on the X platform has weighed in with an interesting take about BTC’s cyclical behaviors.

CryptoQuant的創始人Ki Young Ju宣稱BTC Bull Cycle在2025年3月結束了，他審查了他的分析，並提出了比特幣價格可能會破壞通常的周期性趨勢的想法。 X平台上的另一位鍊鍊專家對BTC的周期性行為進行了有趣的看法。

Investors Could See The First Unique Cycle In Bitcoin’s History

投資者可以看到比特幣歷史上的第一個獨特週期

Pseudonymous on-chain analyst Darkfost took to X to share their perspective on the current cycle and Bitcoin price potentially breaking the fractal cycle dynamics. According to the online pundit, the current market cycle could be different from the typical cycles seen in the past, but perhaps not as much as investors think.

化名鍊鍊分析師Darkfost拿到了X，分享了他們對當前週期的看法，比特幣價格可能會破壞分形週期動態。根據在線專家的說法，當前的市場週期可能與過去看到的典型週期不同，但也許不像投資者那樣多。

Darkfost based their analysis on the highlighted chart, which brings together key macroeconomic data and compares it to Bitcoin’s price movements. Firstly, the on-chain analyst believes that the flagship cryptocurrency has never had to evolve under market conditions this hostile for risk assets.

DarkFost將其分析基於突出顯示的圖表，該圖表匯集了關鍵的宏觀經濟數據，並將其與比特幣的價格變動進行了比較。首先，這位鍊鍊分析師認為，旗艦加密貨幣從未在這種敵對風險資產的市場條件下發展。

Darkfost alluded to the high interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, saying the potential juicy returns on safer investment instruments have not stopped the Bitcoin price from reaching two new all-time highs in the current cycle. Specifically, the crypto analyst pointed to the situation with Treasury yields. Darkfost said:

Darkfost暗示了美國美聯儲的高利率，稱潛在的更安全投資工具的多汁回報並沒有阻止比特幣價格在當前週期中達到兩個新的歷史高潮。具體而言，加密分析師指出了國庫收益率的情況。 Darkfost說：

“Why would big money, especially institutions, be willing to take risks when they could earn a safe 5% yield without any real risk? What’s even more striking is that the US2Y has been higher than long-term yields, an unusual and historically significant setup.”

“為什麼大筆資金，尤其是機構，願意在沒有任何實際風險的情況下獲得安全的5％的收益率時冒著風險？更令人驚訝的是，US2Y的長期收益率高於長期收益率，這是一種不尋常且歷史上重要的設置。”

Darkfost went further to say that the current cycle might indeed be different, as liquidity has not been completely directed towards risk assets. However, this has not stopped the premier cryptocurrency from performing impressively in the past year.

DarkFost進一步說，當前週期可能確實有所不同，因為流動性尚未完全針對風險資產。但是，這並沒有阻止主要的加密貨幣在過去一年中表現出色。

In the end, Darkfost mentioned that the reelection of United States President Donald Trump brings some level of uncertainty to the market. The on-chain analyst concluded that while Bitcoin remains in a typical cycle for now, investors could see the first truly unique cycle if macro conditions improve this year and last till 2026.

最後，Darkfost提到，美國總統唐納德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的連任給市場帶來了一定程度的不確定性。這位鍊鍊分析師得出的結論是，儘管比特幣仍處於典型的周期狀態，但如果宏觀條件改善今年並且持續到2026年，投資者可以看到第一個真正獨特的周期。

BTC Price At A Glance

BTC價格一目了然

As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at around $94,752, reflecting a roughly 0.5% price decline in the past 24 hours.

在撰寫本文時，比特幣的價值約為94,752美元，反映了過去24小時的價格下降約0.5％。