比特币（BTC）价格周期理论受到威胁，投资者可以看到比特币历史上的第一个独特周期

自创建以来，比特币价格始终以周期性的模式移动，这是由不同的向上，侧向和向下移动的定义。但是，这种循环理论似乎受到威胁，而主要的加密货币似乎违背了趋势。

The Bitcoin price is believed to have always moved in a cyclical pattern — defined by distinct periods of upward, sideways, and downward movements — since its creation. However, this cycle theory appears to be under threat, with the premier cryptocurrency seemingly moving against the trend.

自创建以来，比特币价格始终以周期性的模式移动，这是由不同的向上，侧向和向下移动的定义。但是，这种循环理论似乎受到威胁，而主要的加密货币似乎违背了趋势。

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju, who had proclaimed that the BTC bull cycle is over in March 2025, reviewed his analysis and floated the idea that the Bitcoin price could break out of the usual cyclical trends. Another on-chain expert on the X platform has weighed in with an interesting take about BTC’s cyclical behaviors.

CryptoQuant的创始人Ki Young Ju宣称BTC Bull Cycle在2025年3月结束了，他审查了他的分析，并提出了比特币价格可能会破坏通常的周期性趋势的想法。 X平台上的另一位链链专家对BTC的周期性行为进行了有趣的看法。

Investors Could See The First Unique Cycle In Bitcoin’s History

投资者可以看到比特币历史上的第一个独特周期

Pseudonymous on-chain analyst Darkfost took to X to share their perspective on the current cycle and Bitcoin price potentially breaking the fractal cycle dynamics. According to the online pundit, the current market cycle could be different from the typical cycles seen in the past, but perhaps not as much as investors think.

化名链链分析师Darkfost拿到了X，分享了他们对当前周期的看法，比特币价格可能会破坏分形周期动态。根据在线专家的说法，当前的市场周期可能与过去看到的典型周期不同，但也许不像投资者那样多。

Darkfost based their analysis on the highlighted chart, which brings together key macroeconomic data and compares it to Bitcoin’s price movements. Firstly, the on-chain analyst believes that the flagship cryptocurrency has never had to evolve under market conditions this hostile for risk assets.

DarkFost将其分析基于突出显示的图表，该图表汇集了关键的宏观经济数据，并将其与比特币的价格变动进行了比较。首先，这位链链分析师认为，旗舰加密货币从未在这种敌对风险资产的市场条件下发展。

Darkfost alluded to the high interest rates by the US Federal Reserve, saying the potential juicy returns on safer investment instruments have not stopped the Bitcoin price from reaching two new all-time highs in the current cycle. Specifically, the crypto analyst pointed to the situation with Treasury yields. Darkfost said:

Darkfost暗示了美国美联储的高利率，称潜在的更安全投资工具的多汁回报并没有阻止比特币价格在当前周期中达到两个新的历史高潮。具体而言，加密分析师指出了国库收益率的情况。 Darkfost说：

“Why would big money, especially institutions, be willing to take risks when they could earn a safe 5% yield without any real risk? What’s even more striking is that the US2Y has been higher than long-term yields, an unusual and historically significant setup.”

“为什么大笔资金，尤其是机构，愿意在没有任何实际风险的情况下获得安全的5％的收益率时冒着风险？更令人惊讶的是，US2Y的长期收益率高于长期收益率，这是一种不寻常且历史上重要的设置。”

Darkfost went further to say that the current cycle might indeed be different, as liquidity has not been completely directed towards risk assets. However, this has not stopped the premier cryptocurrency from performing impressively in the past year.

DarkFost进一步说，当前周期可能确实有所不同，因为流动性尚未完全针对风险资产。但是，这并没有阻止主要的加密货币在过去一年中表现出色。

In the end, Darkfost mentioned that the reelection of United States President Donald Trump brings some level of uncertainty to the market. The on-chain analyst concluded that while Bitcoin remains in a typical cycle for now, investors could see the first truly unique cycle if macro conditions improve this year and last till 2026.

最后，Darkfost提到，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普（Donald Trump）的连任给市场带来了一定程度的不确定性。这位链链分析师得出的结论是，尽管比特币仍处于典型的周期状态，但如果宏观条件改善今年并且持续到2026年，投资者可以看到第一个真正独特的周期。

BTC Price At A Glance

BTC价格一目了然

As of this writing, Bitcoin is valued at around $94,752, reflecting a roughly 0.5% price decline in the past 24 hours.

在撰写本文时，比特币的价值约为94,752美元，反映了过去24小时的价格下降约0.5％。