比特幣 (BTC) 價格調整：BTC 反彈尚未結束的 4 個原因

比特幣 (BTC) 在飆升至 108,250 美元的歷史新高後，已經抹去了本月的大部分漲幅。較年初至今高點下跌13%，進入局部調整。

Bitcoin (BTC) price has dropped sharply this week after surging to a record high of $108,250 on Monday. The coin has erased most of the gains made this month and is now down 13% from the year-to-date high, having entered a local correction.

比特幣 (BTC) 價格在周一飆升至歷史新高 108,250 美元後，本周大幅下跌。該代幣已經抹去了本月的大部分漲幅，目前已較年初至今的高點下跌 13%，進入局部調整。

However, several fundamental and technical factors indicate that Bitcoin’s ongoing pullback could be short-lived and that the coin is likely to bounce back and retest the all-time high. Here are four reasons why.

然而，一些基本面和技術因素表明，比特幣的持續回檔可能是短暫的，而該貨幣可能會反彈並重新測試歷史高點。以下是四個原因。

Bitcoin price corrections are not new, and the ongoing pullback is predicted. BTC price often posts a sharp retreat after rising to a crucial resistance level.

比特幣價格調整並不新鮮，並且預計持續回調。比特幣價格在上漲至關鍵阻力位後通常會大幅回落。

The long-term chart below shows that Bitcoin soared to $19,778 in December 2017 and then crashed by 84%. It then dropped by 55% after hitting a high of $64,647 in April 2021. Most recently, Bitcoin peaked at $73,885 in March and then crashed by 33% through August.

下面的長期圖表顯示，比特幣在 2017 年 12 月飆升至 19,778 美元，然後暴跌 84%。在 2021 年 4 月觸及 64,647 美元的高點後，比特幣價格下跌了 55%。

A strong rebound will follow this retreat because BTC still has strong fundamentals. Mining output has fallen since the last halving event, while the amount of Bitcoin in exchanges has continued to drop.

這次回檔之後將會出現強勁反彈，因為 BTC 仍然擁有強勁的基本面。自上次減半事件以來，挖礦產量一直在下降，而交易所中的比特幣數量也持續下降。

Similarly, spot Bitcoin ETFs have attracted over $34 billion in assets, a trend that is expected to continue, especially from institutional investors.

同樣，現貨比特幣 ETF 已吸引了超過 340 億美元的資產，這一趨勢預計將持續下去，尤其是來自機構投資者。

Another reason Bitcoin prices may rebound is that the popular market value to realized value (MVRV) score is still lower than during historical corrections. The MVRV-Z score is calculated by subtracting the realized market cap from the circulating market cap and then dividing it by the standard deviation.

比特幣價格可能反彈的另一個原因是，流行的市場價值與實現價值（MVRV）得分仍然低於歷史調整期間。 MVRV-Z 分數的計算方法是從流通市值中減去已實現市值，然後除以標準差。

Higher MVRV-Z scores indicate that an asset is overheated and could be due for a correction. As shown in the chart below, Bitcoin’s MVRV score peaked at 2.89 earlier this week, which is still lower than the levels seen during the bear market March this year (3.05), January 2022’s correction (3.21), and March 2021 (5.25). This suggests the coin has more upside potential once the panic selling subsides.

較高的 MVRV-Z 分數表示資產過熱，可能需要修正。如下圖所示，本週早些時候，比特幣的MVRV 得分達到峰值2.89，仍低於今年3 月熊市期間（3.05）、2022 年1 月回檔（3.21）和2021 年3 月（5.25）的水平。這顯示一旦恐慌性拋售消退，代幣就有更大的上漲潛力。

According to CoinGlass, Bitcoin’s MVRV score reached a peak of 5.2 during the bull market of 2021. MVRV scores above 3 have historically indicated that Bitcoin is overvalued and could be due for a correction.

根據 CoinGlass 的數據，比特幣的 MVRV 得分在 2021 年牛市期間達到了 5.2 的峰值。

As shown in the chart above, BTC MVRV began to rise sharply in October 2023, coinciding with a surge in Bitcoin’s price. The MVRV score reached 2.89 on Monday, November 13th, as Bitcoin hit a record high of $108,250.

如上圖所示，BTC MVRV 從 2023 年 10 月開始大幅上漲，恰逢比特幣價格飆升。 11 月 13 日星期一，MVRV 得分達到 2.89，比特幣創下 108,250 美元的歷史新高。

However, the MVRV score still remains below the levels seen during previous bull markets, suggesting that Bitcoin’s recent rally could still have further to go. For instance, the MVRV score reached a peak of 5.2 during the bull market of 2021.

然而，MVRV 得分仍低於先前牛市期間的水平，這表明比特幣近期的反彈可能會進一步發展。例如，MVRV評分在2021年牛市期間達到了5.2的峰值。

Bitcoin prices may rebound as large BTC holders are still accumulating coins, and hopes of a strategic reserve are rising. MicroStrategy has added more BTC to its portfolio and now holds over 439,000 coins.

由於大型比特幣持有者仍在累積比特幣，並且戰略儲備的希望不斷增強，比特幣價格可能會反彈。 MicroStrategy 已在其投資組合中添加了更多 BTC，目前持有超過 439,000 個比特幣。

Marathon Digital, the largest Bitcoin miner, holds over 44,300 coins, while Riot Platforms and Hut 8 Mining have also added thousands of coins.

最大的比特幣礦商 Marathon Digital 持有超過 44,300 個比特幣，而 Riot Platforms 和 Hut 8 Mining 也增加了數千個比特幣。

After observing MicroStrategy’s success, more companies are likely to purchase Bitcoins. Over the past four years, MicroStrategy has transformed from a fledgling technology company into an $80 billion firm.

在觀察 MicroStrategy 的成功後，更多的公司可能會購買比特幣。在過去的四年裡，MicroStrategy 已從一家羽翼未豐的科技公司轉型為價值 800 億美元的公司。

Additionally, discussions about creating a strategic Bitcoin reserve, especially by Donald Trump, have gained traction. In a recent note, Bitwise noted that more countries could follow suit as the U.S. public debt has surged to over $36.4 trillion.

此外，關於建立戰略性比特幣儲備的討論，尤其是唐納德·川普的討論，也受到了關注。 Bitwise 在最近的一份報告中指出，隨著美國公共債務飆升至超過 36.4 兆美元，更多國家可能會效仿。

Finally, Bitcoin price has formed strong bullish technical patterns when viewed from a broader perspective. The weekly chart shows that the coin formed a cup pattern between 2021 and March this year. It then formed a handle between March and October, followed by a strong comeback.

最後，從更廣泛的角度來看，比特幣價格已形成強勁的看漲技術形態。週線圖顯示，該幣在2021年至今年3月期間形成了杯子形態。然後，它在三月到十月之間形成了一個手柄，隨後強勢捲土重來。

Bitcoin has rallied in most weeks since then, and it is often normal for an asset in an uptrend to pause temporarily. Bitcoin’s target in this bull run is $122,000, which was determined by measuring the depth of the cup at 76%. Adding 76% to the cup’s upper side gives a target of $122,000.

在接下來的大多數星期裡，比特幣都在上漲，處於上升趨勢的資產暫時暫停通常是正常的。比特幣本次牛市的目標是 122,000 美元，這是透過測量杯子深度 76% 確定的。將杯子上邊增加 76% 得出的目標為 122,000 美元。