比特幣（BTC）價格繼續上漲，測試了107,000美元的電阻

加密貨幣市場在周一持續略有反彈，比特幣的盤中高點為107,068美元，然後撤退至102,105美元左右。

The cryptocurrency market saw a slight rebound on Monday, with Bitcoin hitting an intraday high of $107,068 before pulling back to trade at around $102,105.

加密貨幣市場在周一有輕微的反彈，比特幣的盤中高點為107,068美元，然後退回貿易，約為102,105美元。

As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $105,850, showing a 24-hour fluctuation of less than 1%, and a 24-hour trading volume is trading at 40% to $64.63 billion, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

根據CoinMarketCap的數據，截至發稿時間，比特幣的交易價格為105,850美元，顯示24小時波動少於1％，24小時交易量的交易量為40％至646.3億美元。

Some market observers have noticed an interesting “staircase” pattern in Bitcoin’s recent rise.

一些市場觀察家注意到比特幣最近的增長中有趣的“樓梯”模式。

Analyst Trader Tardigrade pointed out that the BTC price seems to be rising in phases, with each rising band of about $10,000, and a brief pause after each rise. He mentioned the movement from $75,000 to $85,000, then to $95,000, and most recently to $105,000. After each jump, there are usually seven to ten days of relatively calm sideways consolidation.

分析師Trader Tardigrade指出，BTC的價格似乎在階段上漲，每個上升的樂隊約為10,000美元，並且每次上升後短暫停頓。他提到了從75,000美元到$ 85,000的運動，然後是95,000美元，最近才能達到105,000美元。每次跳躍後，通常都有七到十天的相對平靜的側向整合。

For traders, this pattern presents predictable opportunities to take profits or enter new positions. These consolidations can serve as new support levels, indicating that buyers are willing to enter the market again. If this pattern continues, the next logical target could be $115,000, which is about 11% higher than the current price.

對於交易者而言，這種模式為獲得利潤或進入新職位提供了可預測的機會。這些合併可以作為新的支持水平，表明買家願意再次進入市場。如果這種模式繼續進行，下一個邏輯目標可能為$ 115,000，比目前的價格高出約11％。

Tardigrade believes that the value of the $100,000 mark is self-evident. This integer is not only an important psychological defense, but also a strong technical support. It is worth noting that after a sharp increase of 11% in early May, Bitcoin still maintained a slight increase of 0.5% last week. This "slow bull" feature is healthier and more sustainable than violent fluctuations.

Tardigrade認為，100,000美元大關的價值是不言而喻的。這個整數不僅是重要的心理防禦，而且是強大的技術支持。值得注意的是，在5月初急劇增長11％之後，比特幣上週仍保持0.5％的略有增長。與暴力波動相比，這種“緩慢的”功能更健康，更可持續。

Chart analyst CryptoCon offers a more optimistic outlook through the “Golden Ratio Multiplier” model.

Chart Analyst Cryptocon通過“黃金比率乘數”模型提供了更加樂觀的前景。

CryptoCon said the model was one of the few technical indicators that accurately predicted the top of the Bitcoin cycle in April 2021.

Cryptocon說，該模型是為數不多的技術指標之一，該技術指標可以準確預測2021年4月的比特幣週期頂部。

According to the model analysis, in March 2024, the market has reached the middle top of this cycle, which means that the market is likely to test the top again. The current model shows that the fifth-level target is $160,000 and continues to rise. This trend is quite similar to the bull market cycle from 2015 to 2017 - the current stage is equivalent to the position in April 2017, which is the eve of the main bull market. Historical experience shows that this slow accumulation stage often indicates that there may be an accelerated rise in the subsequent market.

根據模型分析，在2024年3月，市場已經達到了該週期的中間頂部，這意味著市場可能再次測試頂級。當前的模型表明，第五級目標是$ 160,000，並且繼續上升。這種趨勢與從2015年到2017年的牛市週期非常相似 - 當前階段等同於2017年4月的職位，這是主要牛市的前夕。歷史經驗表明，這個緩慢的積累階段通常表明隨後的市場可能會加速上升。

It is worth noting that although this technical analysis has a certain reference value, the target of $160,000 is based on the calculation results of a specific model, and the actual trend may be affected by many factors. For ordinary investors, understanding this cyclical feature helps to grasp the market rhythm, but more importantly, it is necessary to do a good job of risk management.

值得注意的是，儘管此技術分析具有一定的參考值，但160,000美元的目標基於特定模型的計算結果，並且實際趨勢可能受許多因素的影響。對於普通投資者來說，了解這種週期性功能有助於掌握市場節奏，但更重要的是，有必要在風險管理方面做得好。

Analyst Willy Woo offers another perspective. He believes that Bitcoin has transitioned from a volatile, explosively growing asset to a more mature financial instrument.

分析師Willy Woo提供了另一種觀點。他認為，比特幣已經從一個動蕩的，爆炸性的資產轉變為更成熟的金融工具。

While many still envision Bitcoin as a rapidly soaring "magical unicorn," Woo notes that the era of annual growth rates exceeding 100%, last seen in 2017, is largely behind them. He identifies 2020 as a pivotal year for Bitcoin’s institutionalization, as institutions, companies, and sovereign entities began significantly accumulating the cryptocurrency.

儘管許多人仍將比特幣視為迅速飛漲的“神奇獨角獸”，但吳指出，年增長率超過100％的時代，最終出現在2017年，在很大程度上落後於他們。他認為2020年是比特幣制度化的關鍵年份，因為機構，公司和主權實體開始大大積累加密貨幣。

However, as more institutional capital enters, Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) will naturally decrease from triple digits to around 30%-40%, and it will continue to moderate.

但是，隨著越來越多的機構資本進入，比特幣的複合年增長率（CAGR）自然會從三位數降低到30％-40％左右，並且它將繼續下調。

This decrease, according to Woo, is a direct consequence of Bitcoin’s increasing maturity and its evolving role as a primary store of capital. He highlights Bitcoin’s status as a global financial asset, which will continue to absorb capital until it reaches its equilibrium point.

根據Woo的說法，這種下降是比特幣成熟度增加及其作為主要資本存儲的不斷發展的作用的直接結果。他強調了比特幣作為全球金融資產的地位，該資本將繼續吸收資本，直到達到平衡點為止。

Looking further ahead, Willy predicts that Bitcoin’s CAGR will eventually stabilize in line with broader economic trends, which he estimates at around 8% per year (combining 5% long-term monetary expansion and 3% GDP growth).

威利（Willy）進一步預測，比特幣的複合年增長率最終將根據更廣泛的經濟趨勢穩定，他估計每年約為8％（合併5％的長期長期貨幣擴張和3％的GDP增長）。

Despite this future growth rate being relatively slow compared to Bitcoin’s early days, Willy remains optimistic about its long-term performance. He concludes by saying that until then (and perhaps another 15-20 years), people can enjoy the ride, as few publicly investable products can match Bitcoin’s performance over the long term, even if Bitcoin’s CAGR continues to decline.

儘管與比特幣的早期相比，未來的增長率相對較慢，但威利仍然對其長期績效保持樂觀。他總結說，直到那時（也許還有15到20年），人們可以享受這次旅行，因為即使比特幣的複合年增長率繼續下降，很少有可公開的產品可以長期匹配比特幣的性能。