比特币（BTC）价格继续上涨，测试了107,000美元的电阻

加密货币市场在周一持续略有反弹，比特币的盘中高点为107,068美元，然后撤退至102,105美元左右。

The cryptocurrency market saw a slight rebound on Monday, with Bitcoin hitting an intraday high of $107,068 before pulling back to trade at around $102,105.

加密货币市场在周一有轻微的反弹，比特币的盘中高点为107,068美元，然后退回贸易，约为102,105美元。

As of press time, Bitcoin is trading at $105,850, showing a 24-hour fluctuation of less than 1%, and a 24-hour trading volume is trading at 40% to $64.63 billion, according to data from CoinMarketCap.

根据CoinMarketCap的数据，截至发稿时间，比特币的交易价格为105,850美元，显示24小时波动少于1％，24小时交易量的交易量为40％至646.3亿美元。

Some market observers have noticed an interesting “staircase” pattern in Bitcoin’s recent rise.

一些市场观察家注意到比特币最近的增长中有趣的“楼梯”模式。

Analyst Trader Tardigrade pointed out that the BTC price seems to be rising in phases, with each rising band of about $10,000, and a brief pause after each rise. He mentioned the movement from $75,000 to $85,000, then to $95,000, and most recently to $105,000. After each jump, there are usually seven to ten days of relatively calm sideways consolidation.

分析师Trader Tardigrade指出，BTC的价格似乎在阶段上涨，每个上升的乐队约为10,000美元，并且每次上升后短暂停顿。他提到了从75,000美元到$ 85,000的运动，然后是95,000美元，最近才能达到105,000美元。每次跳跃后，通常都有七到十天的相对平静的侧向整合。

For traders, this pattern presents predictable opportunities to take profits or enter new positions. These consolidations can serve as new support levels, indicating that buyers are willing to enter the market again. If this pattern continues, the next logical target could be $115,000, which is about 11% higher than the current price.

对于交易者而言，这种模式为获得利润或进入新职位提供了可预测的机会。这些合并可以作为新的支持水平，表明买家愿意再次进入市场。如果这种模式继续进行，下一个逻辑目标可能为$ 115,000，比目前的价格高出约11％。

Tardigrade believes that the value of the $100,000 mark is self-evident. This integer is not only an important psychological defense, but also a strong technical support. It is worth noting that after a sharp increase of 11% in early May, Bitcoin still maintained a slight increase of 0.5% last week. This "slow bull" feature is healthier and more sustainable than violent fluctuations.

Tardigrade认为，100,000美元大关的价值是不言而喻的。这个整数不仅是重要的心理防御，而且是强大的技术支持。值得注意的是，在5月初急剧增长11％之后，比特币上周仍保持0.5％的略有增长。与暴力波动相比，这种“缓慢的”功能更健康，更可持续。

Chart analyst CryptoCon offers a more optimistic outlook through the “Golden Ratio Multiplier” model.

Chart Analyst Cryptocon通过“黄金比率乘数”模型提供了更加乐观的前景。

CryptoCon said the model was one of the few technical indicators that accurately predicted the top of the Bitcoin cycle in April 2021.

Cryptocon说，该模型是为数不多的技术指标之一，该技术指标可以准确预测2021年4月的比特币周期顶部。

According to the model analysis, in March 2024, the market has reached the middle top of this cycle, which means that the market is likely to test the top again. The current model shows that the fifth-level target is $160,000 and continues to rise. This trend is quite similar to the bull market cycle from 2015 to 2017 - the current stage is equivalent to the position in April 2017, which is the eve of the main bull market. Historical experience shows that this slow accumulation stage often indicates that there may be an accelerated rise in the subsequent market.

根据模型分析，在2024年3月，市场已经达到了该周期的中间顶部，这意味着市场可能再次测试顶级。当前的模型表明，第五级目标是$ 160,000，并且继续上升。这种趋势与从2015年到2017年的牛市周期非常相似 - 当前阶段等同于2017年4月的职位，这是主要牛市的前夕。历史经验表明，这个缓慢的积累阶段通常表明随后的市场可能会加速上升。

It is worth noting that although this technical analysis has a certain reference value, the target of $160,000 is based on the calculation results of a specific model, and the actual trend may be affected by many factors. For ordinary investors, understanding this cyclical feature helps to grasp the market rhythm, but more importantly, it is necessary to do a good job of risk management.

值得注意的是，尽管此技术分析具有一定的参考值，但160,000美元的目标基于特定模型的计算结果，并且实际趋势可能受许多因素的影响。对于普通投资者来说，了解这种周期性功能有助于掌握市场节奏，但更重要的是，有必要在风险管理方面做得好。

Analyst Willy Woo offers another perspective. He believes that Bitcoin has transitioned from a volatile, explosively growing asset to a more mature financial instrument.

分析师Willy Woo提供了另一种观点。他认为，比特币已经从一个动荡的，爆炸性的资产转变为更成熟的金融工具。

While many still envision Bitcoin as a rapidly soaring "magical unicorn," Woo notes that the era of annual growth rates exceeding 100%, last seen in 2017, is largely behind them. He identifies 2020 as a pivotal year for Bitcoin’s institutionalization, as institutions, companies, and sovereign entities began significantly accumulating the cryptocurrency.

尽管许多人仍将比特币视为迅速飞涨的“神奇独角兽”，但吴指出，年增长率超过100％的时代，最终出现在2017年，在很大程度上落后于他们。他认为2020年是比特币制度化的关键年份，因为机构，公司和主权实体开始大大积累加密货币。

However, as more institutional capital enters, Bitcoin’s compound annual growth rate (CAGR) will naturally decrease from triple digits to around 30%-40%, and it will continue to moderate.

但是，随着越来越多的机构资本进入，比特币的复合年增长率（CAGR）自然会从三位数降低到30％-40％左右，并且它将继续下调。

This decrease, according to Woo, is a direct consequence of Bitcoin’s increasing maturity and its evolving role as a primary store of capital. He highlights Bitcoin’s status as a global financial asset, which will continue to absorb capital until it reaches its equilibrium point.

根据Woo的说法，这种下降是比特币成熟度增加及其作为主要资本存储的不断发展的作用的直接结果。他强调了比特币作为全球金融资产的地位，该资本将继续吸收资本，直到达到平衡点为止。

Looking further ahead, Willy predicts that Bitcoin’s CAGR will eventually stabilize in line with broader economic trends, which he estimates at around 8% per year (combining 5% long-term monetary expansion and 3% GDP growth).

威利（Willy）进一步预测，比特币的复合年增长率最终将根据更广泛的经济趋势稳定，他估计每年约为8％（合并5％的长期长期货币扩张和3％的GDP增长）。

Despite this future growth rate being relatively slow compared to Bitcoin’s early days, Willy remains optimistic about its long-term performance. He concludes by saying that until then (and perhaps another 15-20 years), people can enjoy the ride, as few publicly investable products can match Bitcoin’s performance over the long term, even if Bitcoin’s CAGR continues to decline.

尽管与比特币的早期相比，未来的增长率相对较慢，但威利仍然对其长期绩效保持乐观。他总结说，直到那时（也许还有15到20年），人们可以享受这次旅行，因为即使比特币的复合年增长率继续下降，很少有可公开的产品可以长期匹配比特币的性能。