比特幣（BTC）價格分析：宏觀指標顯示底部已經形成或接近

宏觀指標表明，比特幣（$BTC）要么接近，要么已經找到了這次長期修正的底部，因為它接近六個月的價格。

Bitcoin (BTC) price indicators are suggesting that the bottom for this long correction, approaching six months of sideways to downwards price action, is either close to being found, or has already been found by BTC.

比特幣（BTC）價格指標表明，這次長期修正的底部，即接近六個月的橫向下行價格走勢，要么即將被發現，要么已經被 BTC 發現。

A game of patience and waiting

一場需要耐心與等待的遊戲

For those crypto investors who are new to the world of Bitcoin, the last few months must have felt trying in the extreme. Many would perhaps even have sold their BTC position, especially if they had jumped onboard when Bitcoin was close to its top, at nearly $74,000.

對於那些剛接觸比特幣世界的加密貨幣投資者來說，過去幾個月一定感到非常艱難。許多人甚至可能會出售他們的比特幣頭寸，特別是如果他們在比特幣接近最高點（接近 74,000 美元）時加入。

What probably the majority of these investors don’t realize, is that even in traditional stock market trading, it’s a game of patience. As it happens, the crypto market is far more volatile than the stock market, and so big moves do happen a lot quicker. Six months is quite a short period of time in the world of investing.

大多數投資者可能沒有意識到，即使在傳統的股票市場交易中，這也是一場耐心的遊戲。事實上，加密貨幣市場的波動性比股票市場大得多，因此大的波動確實發生得更快。在投資領域，六個月是相當短的一段時間。

That said, it is starting to look like Bitcoin could be at or near the bottom of this long, drawn-out correction, in spite of the reports across social media that this or that huge entity might be selling.

也就是說，儘管社交媒體上有報導稱這個或那個巨大的實體可能正在出售，但比特幣開始看起來可能處於或接近這場長期回調的底部。

Sellers and buyers at the Bitcoin ETFs

比特幣 ETF 的賣家和買家

It is true that for the Spot Bitcoin ETFs, the selling is certainly ongoing. Friday saw the eighth straight day of net outflows from the ETFs, and it was another big sale of 3.03K BTC that institutions or private investors divested themselves of.

確實，對於現貨比特幣 ETF 來說，拋售肯定仍在持續。週五，ETF 連續第八天出現淨流出，這是機構或私人投資者再次拋售 303,000 枚 BTC 的大筆拋售。

However, this has to be measured against the likes of Michael Saylor’s Microstrategy looking to buy again, and the mystery buyer ‘Mr 100’, possibly a sovereign wealth fund, who continues to buy Bitcoin in quantities of around 100 BTC at a time. He bought 2000 BTC in just the first seven days of September.

然而，這必須與邁克爾·塞勒(Michael Saylor) 的Microstrategy 尋求再次購買比特幣以及神秘買家“Mr 100”（可能是一家主權財富基金）等人來衡量，後者繼續一次購買約100 BTC 的數量的比特幣。他在 9 月的前 7 天就買了 2000 BTC。

BTC price in short term descending channel

BTC價格短期處於下行通道

Looking at the shorter time frame chart for BTC, we can see that the price is moving within a descending channel. While this chart pattern is bearish in itself, given that it is displaying an uninterrupted sequence of lower highs and lower lows, a breakout to the upside is more likely to indicate a change in trend.

查看 BTC 的較短時間框架圖表，我們可以看到價格正在下降通道內移動。雖然這種圖表模式本身是看跌的，但考慮到它顯示連續的較低高點和較低低點，向上突破更有可能表明趨勢變化。

As the BTC price moves back to the top of the channel, a rejection is quite possible again, causing yet another lower high, and given that support at $51,000 is not far below, the price could come down one more time.

隨著 BTC 價格回到通道頂部，很有可能再次遭到拒絕，導致另一個較低的高點，並且考慮到 51,000 美元的支撐位距離不遠，價格可能會再次下跌。

Macro indicators suggest a coming trend change

宏觀指標顯示即將發生的趨勢變化

Moving out to the macro weekly time frame, we can see that the bull flag is still holding perfectly. A wick down to test the $51,000 support level has taken place, and it would therefore just appear to be a matter of time before the BTC price either moves back to the top of the flag, or falls through the bottom.

轉向宏觀週時間框架，我們可以看到牛旗仍然完美地保持著。測試 51,000 美元支撐位的燭線已經出現，因此 BTC 價格要么回到旗形頂部，要么跌破底部似乎只是時間問題。

At the bottom of the above weekly chart, the Relative Strength Index is displaying a series of lower highs and lows. However, the orange line marks important support and resistance, going back quite a number of years. If this support can hold, and a bounce takes place, a break of the descending trend line could augur the beginning of a trend change.

在上述週線圖的底部，相對強弱指數顯示一系列較低的高點和低點。然而，橙色線標誌著重要的支撐和阻力，可以追溯到很多年前。如果該支撐位能夠守住，並且發生反彈，則下降趨勢線的突破可能預示著趨勢變化的開始。

Looking at the same chart, but with the Stochastic RSI at the bottom, we can observe that the indicator lines are bottoming again. This means that in the next week or two, these indicator lines could be on their way back up. Two fake outs have occurred thus far, so third time lucky could see strong momentum carry the BTC price into a marked upward trend.

查看同一張圖表，但隨機 RSI 位於底部，我們可以觀察到指標線再次觸底。這意味著在接下來的一兩週內，這些指標線可能會回升。到目前為止已經發生了兩次假出局，因此第三次幸運可能會看到強勁的勢頭將比特幣價格帶入明顯的上漲趨勢。