比特币（BTC）价格分析：宏观指标表明底部已经形成或接近

宏观指标表明，比特币（$BTC）要么接近，要么已经找到了这次长期修正的底部，因为它接近六个月的价格。

Bitcoin (BTC) price indicators are suggesting that the bottom for this long correction, approaching six months of sideways to downwards price action, is either close to being found, or has already been found by BTC.

比特币（BTC）价格指标表明，这次长期修正的底部，即接近六个月的横向下行价格走势，要么即将被发现，要么已经被 BTC 发现。

A game of patience and waiting

一场需要耐心和等待的游戏

For those crypto investors who are new to the world of Bitcoin, the last few months must have felt trying in the extreme. Many would perhaps even have sold their BTC position, especially if they had jumped onboard when Bitcoin was close to its top, at nearly $74,000.

对于那些刚接触比特币世界的加密货币投资者来说，过去几个月一定感到非常艰难。许多人甚至可能会出售他们的比特币头寸，特别是如果他们在比特币接近最高点（接近 74,000 美元）时加入。

What probably the majority of these investors don’t realize, is that even in traditional stock market trading, it’s a game of patience. As it happens, the crypto market is far more volatile than the stock market, and so big moves do happen a lot quicker. Six months is quite a short period of time in the world of investing.

大多数投资者可能没有意识到，即使在传统的股票市场交易中，这也是一场耐心的游戏。事实上，加密货币市场的波动性比股票市场要大得多，因此大的波动确实发生得更快。在投资领域，六个月是相当短的一段时间。

That said, it is starting to look like Bitcoin could be at or near the bottom of this long, drawn-out correction, in spite of the reports across social media that this or that huge entity might be selling.

也就是说，尽管社交媒体上有报道称这个或那个巨大的实体可能正在出售，但比特币开始看起来可能处于或接近这场长期回调的底部。

Sellers and buyers at the Bitcoin ETFs

比特币 ETF 的卖家和买家

It is true that for the Spot Bitcoin ETFs, the selling is certainly ongoing. Friday saw the eighth straight day of net outflows from the ETFs, and it was another big sale of 3.03K BTC that institutions or private investors divested themselves of.

确实，对于现货比特币 ETF 来说，抛售肯定仍在持续。周五，ETF 连续第八天出现净流出，这是机构或私人投资者再次抛售 303000 枚 BTC 的大笔抛售。

However, this has to be measured against the likes of Michael Saylor’s Microstrategy looking to buy again, and the mystery buyer ‘Mr 100’, possibly a sovereign wealth fund, who continues to buy Bitcoin in quantities of around 100 BTC at a time. He bought 2000 BTC in just the first seven days of September.

然而，这必须与迈克尔·塞勒 (Michael Saylor) 的 Microstrategy 寻求再次购买比特币以及神秘买家“Mr 100”（可能是一家主权财富基金）等人来衡量，后者继续一次购买约 100 BTC 的数量的比特币。他在 9 月的前 7 天就购买了 2000 BTC。

BTC price in short term descending channel

BTC价格短期处于下行通道

Looking at the shorter time frame chart for BTC, we can see that the price is moving within a descending channel. While this chart pattern is bearish in itself, given that it is displaying an uninterrupted sequence of lower highs and lower lows, a breakout to the upside is more likely to indicate a change in trend.

查看 BTC 的较短时间框架图表，我们可以看到价格正在下降通道内移动。虽然这种图表模式本身是看跌的，但考虑到它显示出连续不断的较低高点和较低低点，向上突破更有可能表明趋势发生变化。

As the BTC price moves back to the top of the channel, a rejection is quite possible again, causing yet another lower high, and given that support at $51,000 is not far below, the price could come down one more time.

随着 BTC 价格回到通道顶部，很有可能再次遭到拒绝，从而导致另一个较低的高点，并且考虑到 51,000 美元的支撑位距离不远，价格可能会再次下跌。

Macro indicators suggest a coming trend change

宏观指标表明即将发生的趋势变化

Moving out to the macro weekly time frame, we can see that the bull flag is still holding perfectly. A wick down to test the $51,000 support level has taken place, and it would therefore just appear to be a matter of time before the BTC price either moves back to the top of the flag, or falls through the bottom.

转向宏观周时间框架，我们可以看到牛旗仍然完美地保持着。测试 51,000 美元支撑位的烛线已经出现，因此 BTC 价格要么回到旗形顶部，要么跌破底部似乎只是时间问题。

At the bottom of the above weekly chart, the Relative Strength Index is displaying a series of lower highs and lows. However, the orange line marks important support and resistance, going back quite a number of years. If this support can hold, and a bounce takes place, a break of the descending trend line could augur the beginning of a trend change.

在上述周线图的底部，相对强弱指数显示出一系列较低的高点和低点。然而，橙色线标志着重要的支撑和阻力，可以追溯到很多年前。如果该支撑位能够守住，并且发生反弹，则下降趋势线的突破可能预示着趋势变化的开始。

Looking at the same chart, but with the Stochastic RSI at the bottom, we can observe that the indicator lines are bottoming again. This means that in the next week or two, these indicator lines could be on their way back up. Two fake outs have occurred thus far, so third time lucky could see strong momentum carry the BTC price into a marked upward trend.

查看同一张图表，但随机 RSI 位于底部，我们可以观察到指标线再次触底。这意味着在接下来的一两周内，这些指标线可能会回升。到目前为止已经发生了两次假出局，因此第三次幸运可能会看到强劲的势头将比特币价格带入明显的上涨趋势。