比特幣（BTC）價格分析：局部低點已經過去了嗎？

它在兩天內兩次遭遇 58,800 美元短期高點的拒絕。上週失去 6 萬美元的心理支撐後，整個市場的情緒都令人恐懼。

Bitcoin [BTC] faced rejections from its short-term highs of $58.8K twice in two days. After losing the psychological support of $60K last week, the sentiment across the market was fearful.

比特幣 [BTC] 在兩天內兩次遭遇 58,800 美元短期高點的拒絕。上週失去 6 萬美元的心理支撐後，整個市場的情緒都令人恐懼。

There is some hope for a recovery, though. At the Xpress time of writing, the increasing accumulation trend suggested that buyers were willing, but other metrics suggested more pain is likely.

不過，復甦還是有希望的。在 Xpress 撰寫本文時，不斷增加的累積趨勢表明買家願意，但其他指標表明可能會出現更多痛苦。

Xcryptographer Axel Adler drew attention to the current average losses for short-term holders (STHs). While the losses matched those of June 2023, they were much smaller in magnitude than the pain we saw in 2021 or 2022.

Xcryptographer Axel Adler 提請注意短期持有者 (STH) 目前的平均損失。雖然損失與 2023 年 6 月的損失相當，但其幅度比我們在 2021 年或 2022 年看到的痛苦要小得多。

While it indicated a potential local bottom, it also showed that traders and investors should prepare for the worst-case scenario of a sharp price drop on the charts.

雖然它表明潛在的局部底部，但也表明交易者和投資者應該為圖表上價格大幅下跌的最壞情況做好準備。

Evidence that Bitcoin’s local lows are behind us, source: Axel Adler on X

比特幣局部低點已經過去的證據，來源：Axel Adler on X

CryptoQuant noted that the trader realized a profit/loss margin of -17%. This was in the same ballpark as the market bottomed out over the past two years, reinforcing the idea that BTC is more likely to rally higher than lower.

CryptoQuant 指出，該交易員實現的利潤/虧損率為 -17%。這與過去兩年市場觸底的情況大致相同，這強化了比特幣更有可能上漲而不是下跌的觀點。

source: Ki Young Joo on X

來源：X 上的奇英珠

According to the founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Joo, Whales tend to use leverage at cyclical bottoms, making markets over-leveraged and forcing another price drop.

CryptoQuant 創辦人兼執行長 Ki Young Joo 表示，鯨魚傾向於在週期性底部使用槓桿，導致市場過度槓桿化，迫使價格再次下跌。

At the Xpress time of writing, whales were not overly leveraged, which could have paved the way for a deeper correction below the $50,000 level.

截至 Xpress 撰寫本文時，鯨魚槓桿並未過度，這可能為價格進一步跌破 50,000 美元的回調鋪平道路。

Traders feel humbled after trying to catch the breakout and ATH

交易者在試圖抓住突破和 ATH 後感到謙卑

source: Cryptoquant

來源：Cryptoquant

From the last week of May to July 3, the estimated leverage ratio on exchanges rose rapidly. During that period, the price of Bitcoin was between $67,000 and $69,000. As the price fell below $66,000, the leverage ratio rose again, indicating that traders were trying to time their exit from greed.

從5月最後一周到7月3日，交易所預估槓桿率快速上升。在此期間，比特幣的價格在 67,000 美元至 69,000 美元之間。隨著價格跌破 66,000 美元，槓桿率再次上升，表明交易者正試圖擇機退出貪婪。

Over the past week, their hopes have been dampened by Bitcoin’s continued decline. The leverage ratio has also decreased, which could be healthy for the market.

過去一周，他們的希望因比特幣的持續下跌而破滅。槓桿率也有所下降，這對市場來說可能是健康的。

Overall, it is difficult to say with certainty that Bitcoin has formed a bottom. Several bottom signals were blinking and seller pressure may start to ease. However, investors should still have a plan of action in case the price drops below $50,000.

總體而言，很難肯定地說比特幣已經形成底部。一些底部訊號正在閃爍，賣方壓力可能開始緩解。然而，投資者仍應制定行動計劃，以防價格跌破 5 萬美元。