比特币（BTC）价格分析：局部低点已经过去了吗？

它在两天内两次遭遇 58,800 美元短期高点的拒绝。上周失去 6 万美元的心理支撑后，整个市场的情绪都令人恐惧。

Bitcoin [BTC] faced rejections from its short-term highs of $58.8K twice in two days. After losing the psychological support of $60K last week, the sentiment across the market was fearful.

比特币 [BTC] 在两天内两次遭遇 58,800 美元短期高点的拒绝。上周失去 6 万美元的心理支撑后，整个市场的情绪都令人恐惧。

There is some hope for a recovery, though. At the Xpress time of writing, the increasing accumulation trend suggested that buyers were willing, but other metrics suggested more pain is likely.

不过，复苏还是有希望的。在 Xpress 撰写本文时，不断增加的积累趋势表明买家愿意，但其他指标表明可能会出现更多痛苦。

Xcryptographer Axel Adler drew attention to the current average losses for short-term holders (STHs). While the losses matched those of June 2023, they were much smaller in magnitude than the pain we saw in 2021 or 2022.

Xcryptographer Axel Adler 提请注意短期持有者 (STH) 目前的平均损失。虽然损失与 2023 年 6 月的损失相当，但其幅度比我们在 2021 年或 2022 年看到的痛苦要小得多。

While it indicated a potential local bottom, it also showed that traders and investors should prepare for the worst-case scenario of a sharp price drop on the charts.

虽然它表明潜在的局部底部，但也表明交易者和投资者应该为图表上价格大幅下跌的最坏情况做好准备。

Evidence that Bitcoin’s local lows are behind us, source: Axel Adler on X

比特币局部低点已经过去的证据，来源：Axel Adler on X

CryptoQuant noted that the trader realized a profit/loss margin of -17%. This was in the same ballpark as the market bottomed out over the past two years, reinforcing the idea that BTC is more likely to rally higher than lower.

CryptoQuant 指出，该交易员实现的利润/亏损率为 -17%。这与过去两年市场触底的情况大致相同，这强化了比特币更有可能上涨而不是下跌的观点。

source: Ki Young Joo on X

来源：X 上的奇英珠

According to the founder and CEO of CryptoQuant, Ki Young Joo, Whales tend to use leverage at cyclical bottoms, making markets over-leveraged and forcing another price drop.

CryptoQuant 创始人兼首席执行官 Ki Young Joo 表示，鲸鱼倾向于在周期性底部使用杠杆，导致市场过度杠杆化，迫使价格再次下跌。

At the Xpress time of writing, whales were not overly leveraged, which could have paved the way for a deeper correction below the $50,000 level.

截至 Xpress 撰写本文时，鲸鱼杠杆并未过度，这可能为价格进一步跌破 50,000 美元的回调铺平道路。

Traders feel humbled after trying to catch the breakout and ATH

交易者在试图抓住突破和 ATH 后感到谦卑

source: Cryptoquant

来源：Cryptoquant

From the last week of May to July 3, the estimated leverage ratio on exchanges rose rapidly. During that period, the price of Bitcoin was between $67,000 and $69,000. As the price fell below $66,000, the leverage ratio rose again, indicating that traders were trying to time their exit from greed.

从5月最后一周到7月3日，交易所预估杠杆率快速上升。在此期间，比特币的价格在 67,000 美元至 69,000 美元之间。随着价格跌破 66,000 美元，杠杆率再次上升，表明交易者正试图择机退出贪婪。

Over the past week, their hopes have been dampened by Bitcoin’s continued decline. The leverage ratio has also decreased, which could be healthy for the market.

过去一周，他们的希望因比特币的持续下跌而破灭。杠杆率也有所下降，这对市场来说可能是健康的。

Overall, it is difficult to say with certainty that Bitcoin has formed a bottom. Several bottom signals were blinking and seller pressure may start to ease. However, investors should still have a plan of action in case the price drops below $50,000.

总体而言，很难肯定地说比特币已经形成底部。一些底部信号正在闪烁，卖方压力可能开始缓解。然而，投资者仍应制定行动计划，以防价格跌破 50,000 美元。