比特幣 (BTC) 價格分析：聯準會主席鮑威爾 (Jerome Powell) 關於 2025 年降息和貨幣政策的言論導致市場波動，比特幣跌破 10 萬美元

隨著2025年聖誕節和元旦的臨近，隨著聯準會主席鮑威爾關於2025年降息和貨幣政策的言論，比特幣出現波動。請查看下面 Pintu 交易團隊的宏觀和加密貨幣分析。

As Christmas and New Year’s Day 2025 approach, Bitcoin volatility followed Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell’s remarks on 2025 interest rate cuts and monetary policies.

隨著2025年聖誕節和元旦的臨近，隨著聯準會主席鮑威爾關於2025年降息和貨幣政策的言論，比特幣出現波動。

Here's a macro and crypto analysis by the Pintu trader team.

以下是 Pintu 交易團隊的宏觀和加密貨幣分析。

Market Analysis Summary

市場分析總結

Macroeconomic Analysis

宏觀經濟分析

Fed Funds Rate

聯邦基金利率

Markets anticipated the Fed's 25-basis-point rate cut, bringing the target range to 4.25%-4.50%. However, Powell's comments hinted at a possible shift to rate hikes next year.

市場預期聯準會降息25個基點，目標區間至4.25%-4.50%。然而，鮑威爾的言論暗示明年可能轉向升息。

This "hawkish cut" led to a swift market response: the dollar surged to a two-year high, stocks fell sharply, and Treasury yields spiked. While markets can overreact on such days, the Fed's statement, revised projections, and Powell's remarks provided ample reasoning for these movements.

這次「鷹派降息」引發了市場的迅速反應：美元飆升升至兩年高位，股市大幅下跌，國債殖利率飆升。儘管市場在這些日子可能反應過度，但聯準會的聲明、修訂後的預測以及鮑威爾的言論為這些走勢提供了充分的理由。

One key factor was the lack of unanimity in the decision, with Cleveland Fed President dissenting. Powell also described the rate cut as a “closer call” compared to recent decisions and noted that monetary policy is now “significantly less restrictive” and approaching “neutral.”

一個關鍵因素是這項決定缺乏一致意見，克利夫蘭聯邦儲備銀行主席表示反對。鮑威爾還將降息描述為與最近的決定相比“千鈞一發”，並指出貨幣政策現在“限制性明顯減少”並接近“中性”。

Policymakers raised their median inflation outlook for 2025 to 2.5% (up from 2.1%), increased the long-run neutral interest rate to a six-year high of 3.0%, and reduced the number of projected rate cuts next year from four to two. Despite these revisions, rates markets are skeptical, pricing in only 35 basis points of cuts next year and virtually no additional easing thereafter, essentially challenging the Fed's projections.

政策制定者將 2025 年通膨預期中位數上調至 2.5%（從 2.1% 上調），將長期中性利率上調至六年高點 3.0%，並將明年預計降息次數從 4 次減少到 2 次。儘管做出了這些調整，利率市場仍持懷疑態度，預計明年僅降息 35 個基點，此後幾乎沒有進一步放鬆政策，這從本質上挑戰了聯準會的預測。

This skepticism stems from an apparent inconsistency in the Fed's outlook: it expects inflation to remain higher than previously forecast yet plans to cut rates. Powell faced tough questions on this logic during his press conference, as the stance appears harder to justify given the Fed's relatively stable projections for economic growth and employment, which are expected to remain strong through 2026.

這種懷疑源於聯準會前景的明顯不一致：它預計通膨率將繼續高於先前的預測，但計劃降息。鮑威爾在新聞發布會上對這一邏輯提出了尖銳的質疑，因為鑑於聯準會對經濟成長和就業的相對穩定的預測（預計到 2026 年將保持強勁），這一立場似乎更難證明其合理性。

Just a year after Powell's dovish pivot, markets are now entertaining the prospect of a hawkish reversal.

鮑威爾轉向鴿派僅僅一年後，市場現在開始期待鷹派逆轉的前景。

Interest rate markets currently anticipate an extended pause, with the next rate cut not fully priced in until September 2025. However, external factors, such as the return of President-elect Donald Trump and potential tariff-driven inflation, could complicate the Fed's plans. Economist Phil Suttle predicts that rising inflation in the second quarter of 2025 might force the Fed to hike rates by July.

利率市場目前預計利率將長期暫停，下一次降息要到2025 年9 月才能完全消化。化。經濟學家 Phil Suttle 預測，2025 年第二季通膨上升可能迫使聯準會在 7 月前升息。

Although Powell dismissed the idea of a rate hike next year as unlikely, recent financial market movements suggest otherwise. The dollar has risen 8% since the Fed's first rate cut in September, and Treasury yields have climbed 80 basis points, indicating that parts of the financial market are already bracing for tighter policy.

儘管鮑威爾認為明年升息的可能性不大，但最近的金融市場走勢表明情況並非如此。自聯準會9月首次降息以來，美元已上漲8%，美國公債殖利率已攀升80個基點，顯示部分金融市場已為收緊政策做好準備。

Other Economic Indicators

其他經濟指標

BTC Price Analysis

比特幣價格分析

The broader cryptocurrency market remains volatile, with BTC experiencing a significant setback. The leading cryptocurrency recently dipped below the $100,000 mark amid heightened selling pressure across financial markets, including digital assets. This decline closely followed the Fed's decision to cut interest rates and Fed Chair Jerome Powell's subsequent remarks.

更廣泛的加密貨幣市場仍然波動，比特幣經歷了重大挫折。由於包括數位資產在內的金融市場拋售壓力加大，這種領先的加密貨幣最近跌破 10 萬美元大關。這次下跌緊隨聯準會降息決定和聯準會主席鮑威爾隨後的演講之後。

BTC had previously rallied strongly following Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election, with hopes of a pro-crypto regulatory environment under the new administration. Institutional interest also surged, as evidenced by substantial inflows into the BTC ETF.

川普在美國總統大選中勝出後，比特幣曾強勁反彈，希望新政府領導下有利於加密貨幣的監管環境。機構興趣也激增，大量資金流入 BTC ETF 證明了這一點。

However, this week's downturn has raised concerns. BTC's fall below $100,000 signals widespread selling pressure amid macroeconomic uncertainty and heightened financial market volatility.

然而，本週的低迷引發了人們的擔憂。 BTC 跌破 10 萬美元表明，在宏觀經濟不確定性和金融市場波動加劇的情況下，拋售壓力普遍存在。

The Fed recently announced a 25-basis-point rate cut, aligning with market expectations and providing short-term optimism. However, comments from Jerome Powell tempered sentiment. Powell indicated the Fed might slow the pace of rate cuts in the coming year. Moreover, the Fed halved its projected number of rate cuts for 2025, reducing them from four to two, further dampening market confidence and contributing to Bitcoin's sell-off.

聯準會最近宣布降息 25 個基點，符合市場預期並帶來短期樂觀情緒。然而，傑羅姆·鮑威爾的言論緩和了市場情緒。鮑威爾表示，聯準會明年可能會放緩降息。此外，聯準會將 2025 年降息的預期次數減少了一半，從四次減少到兩次，進一步打擊了市場信心並導致比特幣遭到拋售。

Despite this short-term pullback, analysts remain optimistic. Many believe BTC is positioned for a recovery, citing positive market developments. For instance, reports suggest the U.S. is considering establishing a Bitcoin Strategic Reserve, boosting investor confidence. Similarly, EU leaders are exploring similar initiatives, which could further support market sentiment.

儘管出現短期回調，但分析師仍保持樂觀。許多人認為，由於市場的積極發展，比特幣已經做好了復甦的準備。例如，有報道美國正在考慮建立比特幣戰略儲備，以提振投資者信心。同樣，歐盟領導人正在探索類似的舉措，這可能會進一步支撐市場情緒。

Overall, while short-term volatility persists, underlying market developments and institutional support suggest potential for Bitcoin’s recovery in the near future.

總體而言，雖然短期波動持續存在，但基礎市場發展和機構支持表明比特幣在不久的將來有復甦的潛力。

Bitcoin is currently trading at its 21-day EMA, which aligns with the $100K price level. This pullback serves as a much-needed correction following its aggressive rally over the past month. The key resistance level lies at $106K; a clear breakout above this resistance could position BTC to enter a new price range.

比特幣目前的交易價格為 21 日均線，與 10 萬美元的價格水準一致。此次回調是繼過去一個月大幅上漲之後急需的修正。關鍵阻力位為 106,000 美元；明顯突破該阻力位可能會使 BTC 進入新的價格區間。

On-Chain Analysis

鏈上分析

News About Altcoins

關於山寨幣的新聞

News from the Crypto World in the Past Week

過去一周加密世界的新聞

Crypto

加密貨幣