分析師預測，比特幣 (BTC) 將於 2025 年達到 20 萬美元或以下的峰值

儘管比特幣的短期價格波動較大，但分析師仍然認為，這種首次出現的加密貨幣注定會創下歷史新高。

Bitcoin (BTC) price showed signs of volatility in the last 24 hours, dropping to below $67,000 at some point as BTC price failed to capitalize on Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s bullish sentiments about incorporating the crypto into the United States Treasury.

比特幣 (BTC) 價格在過去 24 小時內出現波動跡象，一度跌至 67,000 美元以下，因為 BTC 價格未能利用共和黨總統候選人唐納德·特朗普關於將加密貨幣納入美國財政部的看漲情緒。

However, despite the short-term price volatility, some analysts maintain that Bitcoin is destined for a new all-time high.

然而，儘管短期價格波動，一些分析師仍認為比特幣注定會創下歷史新高。

In particular, in an X post on July 27, analyst apsk32 shared that Bitcoin’s historical price movement models are targeting about $200,000.

特別是，在 7 月 27 日的 X 貼文中，分析師 apsk32 表示，比特幣的歷史價格走勢模型的目標約為 20 萬美元。

The analysis, which examines Bitcoin’s price movements over the past 13 years, has provided a striking prediction for the future of the flagship crypto. In projecting the next Bitcoin target, the analyst deployed a combination of a power law and an exponential decay model.

該分析考察了比特幣過去 13 年的價格走勢，為旗艦加密貨幣的未來提供了驚人的預測。在預測比特幣的下一個目標時，分析師結合了冪律和指數衰減模型。

The “Bitcoin Power Law Cycle Cloud”チャート(画像をクリックして拡大)チャートを拡大する

「比特幣冪律週期雲」圖表（點圖可放大） 放大圖表

notably, the “Bitcoin Power Law Cycle Cloud”チャート(画像をクリックして拡大) illustrates Bitcoin’s historical price behavior within two primary bounds: the power law lower bound and the exponential decay upper bound. These bounds create a channel within which Bitcoin’s price has oscillated, adhering closely to these mathematical models over the years.

值得注意的是，「比特幣冪律週期雲」圖表（點擊圖片放大）說明了比特幣在兩個主要界限內的歷史價格行為：冪律下限和指數衰減上限。的通道。

According to apsk32, the lower bound of this channel is defined by a power law equation, which has reliably supported Bitcoin’s price. The upper bound, meanwhile, is determined by an exponential decay of the peaks, effectively capping the highest values that Bitcoin has achieved.

根據 apsk32 的說法，該通道的下限是由冪律方程式定義的，該方程式可靠地支持了比特幣的價格。同時，上限是由峰值的指數衰減決定的，有效限制了比特幣所達到的最高值。

Bitcoin’s $200,000 Peak

比特幣20萬美元峰值

Based on the analysis, Bitcoin is expected to reach a peak of $200,000 by 2025. This peak prediction aligns with the upper bound established by the exponential decay model. However, the projection doesn’t just stop at the peak. Following this anticipated high, Bitcoin’s price will decline significantly, falling to around $85,000 by 2026.

根據分析，比特幣預計到 2025 年將達到 20 萬美元的峰值。然而，預測並不僅僅停留在頂峰。在達到這一預期高點之後，比特幣的價格將大幅下跌，到 2026 年將跌至 85,000 美元左右。

“A power law equation provides a lower bound, and an exponential decay of the peaks provides the upper bound. We can hope it will change while staying aware of this 13-year trend. What does that mean for this cycle? (1) Bitcoin will peak at or below $200k in 2025. (2) Bitcoin will fall to $85k in 2026,” the expert said.

「冪律方程式提供了下限，峰值的指數衰減提供了上限。我們希望它能夠改變，同時保持對這 13 年趨勢的認識。這對這個週期意味著什麼？ (1) 比特幣將在 2025 年達到高峰或低於 20 萬美元。

It’s crucial to note that the power law and exponential decay models have consistently predicted Bitcoin’s price movements over the past 13 years. Interestingly, apsk32 pointed out that the model aligns with predictions made by other key players, such as MicroStrategy’s (NASDAQ: MSTR) Michael Saylor, who has shared different price targets for the cryptocurrency.

值得注意的是，冪律和指數衰減模型在過去 13 年中一直預測比特幣的價格走勢。有趣的是，apsk32 指出，該模型與其他關​​鍵參與者的預測一致，例如 MicroStrategy（納斯達克股票代碼：MSTR）的 Michael Saylor，他對加密貨幣分享了不同的價格目標。

Speaking at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference, Saylor predicted that in a base scenario, Bitcoin could reach $13 million, or 7% of global wealth, with a market cap of $280 trillion and an annual return of 29%. Saylor envisions Bitcoin soaring to $49 million, or 22% of global wealth, in a bullish scenario.

Saylor 在 2024 年比特幣大會上發表演說時預測，在基本情境下，比特幣可能達到 1,300 萬美元，即全球財富的 7%，市值為 280 兆美元，年回報率為 29%。 Saylor 預計，在樂觀的情況下，比特幣將飆升至 4,900 萬美元，佔全球財富的 22%。

Bitcoin Price Analysis

比特幣價格分析

Bitcoin was down almost 1% in the 24-hour timeframe by press time, trading at $67,470. On the weekly chart, it is up nearly 0.8% after recording a high of about $69,300.

截至發稿時，比特幣在 24 小時內下跌了近 1%，交易價格為 67,470 美元。從週線圖來看，該股在創下約 69,300 美元的高點後上漲了近 0.8%。

As things stand, Bitcoin’s main obstacle remains reclaiming the $70,000 mark, but investors should keep an eye on the $67,000 support.

就目前情況而言，比特幣的主要障礙仍然是收復 70,000 美元大關，但投資者應關注 67,000 美元的支撐位。