分析师预测，比特币 (BTC) 将于 2025 年达到 200,000 美元或以下的峰值

尽管比特币的短期价格波动较大，但分析师仍然认为，这种首次出现的加密货币注定会创下历史新高。

Bitcoin (BTC) price showed signs of volatility in the last 24 hours, dropping to below $67,000 at some point as BTC price failed to capitalize on Republican presidential nominee Donald Trump’s bullish sentiments about incorporating the crypto into the United States Treasury.

比特币 (BTC) 价格在过去 24 小时内出现波动迹象，一度跌至 67,000 美元以下，因为 BTC 价格未能利用共和党总统候选人唐纳德·特朗普关于将加密货币纳入美国财政部的看涨情绪。

However, despite the short-term price volatility, some analysts maintain that Bitcoin is destined for a new all-time high.

然而，尽管短期价格波动，一些分析师仍认为比特币注定会创下历史新高。

In particular, in an X post on July 27, analyst apsk32 shared that Bitcoin’s historical price movement models are targeting about $200,000.

特别是，在 7 月 27 日的 X 帖子中，分析师 apsk32 表示，比特币的历史价格走势模型的目标约为 20 万美元。

The analysis, which examines Bitcoin’s price movements over the past 13 years, has provided a striking prediction for the future of the flagship crypto. In projecting the next Bitcoin target, the analyst deployed a combination of a power law and an exponential decay model.

该分析考察了比特币过去 13 年的价格走势，为旗舰加密货币的未来提供了惊人的预测。在预测比特币的下一个目标时，分析师结合了幂律和指数衰减模型。

The “Bitcoin Power Law Cycle Cloud”チャート(画像をクリックして拡大)チャートを拡大する

“比特币幂律周期云”图表（点击图片放大） 放大图表

notably, the “Bitcoin Power Law Cycle Cloud”チャート(画像をクリックして拡大) illustrates Bitcoin’s historical price behavior within two primary bounds: the power law lower bound and the exponential decay upper bound. These bounds create a channel within which Bitcoin’s price has oscillated, adhering closely to these mathematical models over the years.

值得注意的是，“比特币幂律周期云”图表（点击图片放大）说明了比特币在两个主要界限内的历史价格行为：幂律下限和指数衰减上限。这些界限创建了比特币价格振荡的通道。 ，多年来紧密遵循这些数学模型。

According to apsk32, the lower bound of this channel is defined by a power law equation, which has reliably supported Bitcoin’s price. The upper bound, meanwhile, is determined by an exponential decay of the peaks, effectively capping the highest values that Bitcoin has achieved.

根据 apsk32 的说法，该通道的下限是由幂律方程定义的，该方程可靠地支持了比特币的价格。与此同时，上限是由峰值的指数衰减决定的，有效限制了比特币所达到的最高值。

Bitcoin’s $200,000 Peak

比特币20万美元峰值

Based on the analysis, Bitcoin is expected to reach a peak of $200,000 by 2025. This peak prediction aligns with the upper bound established by the exponential decay model. However, the projection doesn’t just stop at the peak. Following this anticipated high, Bitcoin’s price will decline significantly, falling to around $85,000 by 2026.

根据分析，比特币预计到 2025 年将达到 20 万美元的峰值。这一峰值预测与指数衰减模型建立的上限一致。然而，预测并不仅仅停留在顶峰。在达到这一预期高点之后，比特币的价格将大幅下跌，到 2026 年将跌至 85,000 美元左右。

“A power law equation provides a lower bound, and an exponential decay of the peaks provides the upper bound. We can hope it will change while staying aware of this 13-year trend. What does that mean for this cycle? (1) Bitcoin will peak at or below $200k in 2025. (2) Bitcoin will fall to $85k in 2026,” the expert said.

“幂律方程提供了下限，峰值的指数衰减提供了上限。我们希望它能够改变，同时保持对这一 13 年趋势的认识。这对这个周期意味着什么？ (1) 比特币将在 2025 年达到峰值或低于 20 万美元。(2) 比特币将在 2026 年跌至 8.5 万美元，”该专家表示。

It’s crucial to note that the power law and exponential decay models have consistently predicted Bitcoin’s price movements over the past 13 years. Interestingly, apsk32 pointed out that the model aligns with predictions made by other key players, such as MicroStrategy’s (NASDAQ: MSTR) Michael Saylor, who has shared different price targets for the cryptocurrency.

值得注意的是，幂律和指数衰减模型在过去 13 年中一直预测比特币的价格走势。有趣的是，apsk32 指出，该模型与其他关键参与者的预测一致，例如 MicroStrategy（纳斯达克股票代码：MSTR）的 Michael Saylor，他对加密货币分享了不同的价格目标。

Speaking at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference, Saylor predicted that in a base scenario, Bitcoin could reach $13 million, or 7% of global wealth, with a market cap of $280 trillion and an annual return of 29%. Saylor envisions Bitcoin soaring to $49 million, or 22% of global wealth, in a bullish scenario.

Saylor 在 2024 年比特币大会上发表讲话时预测，在基本情景下，比特币可能达到 1300 万美元，即全球财富的 7%，市值为 280 万亿美元，年回报率为 29%。 Saylor 预计，在乐观的情况下，比特币将飙升至 4900 万美元，占全球财富的 22%。

Bitcoin Price Analysis

比特币价格分析

Bitcoin was down almost 1% in the 24-hour timeframe by press time, trading at $67,470. On the weekly chart, it is up nearly 0.8% after recording a high of about $69,300.

截至发稿时，比特币在 24 小时内下跌了近 1%，交易价格为 67,470 美元。从周线图来看，该股在创下约 69,300 美元的高点后上涨了近 0.8%。

As things stand, Bitcoin’s main obstacle remains reclaiming the $70,000 mark, but investors should keep an eye on the $67,000 support.

就目前情况而言，比特币的主要障碍仍然是收复 70,000 美元大关，但投资者应关注 67,000 美元的支撑位。