比特幣 [BTC] 的前進道路可能取決於美國的貨幣供應

數週以來，比特幣 [BTC] 的價格一直在 6 萬美元至 7 萬美元之間盤整，這對於靠波動性獲利的投機者來說是一個無聊的設置。

Bitcoin [BTC] has been trading within a narrow price range for weeks, a dull development for speculators who prefer high volatility.

幾週來，比特幣 [BTC] 一直在狹窄的價格區間內交易，這對於喜歡高波動性的投機者來說是一個緩慢的發展。

This sideways movement began after the April halving event and the lack of demand for US spot BTC ETFs.

這種橫向走勢是在 4 月減半事件以及美國現貨 BTC ETF 需求缺乏之後開始的。

However, a new narrative is emerging for the king coin — the rising US money supply.

然而，對於王幣來說，一種新的敘述正在出現——美國貨幣供應量的增加。

Bitcoin’s path forward

比特幣的前進之路

According to X user (formerly Twitter) TechDev_52, an entrepreneur and crypto analyst, BTC could be primed for a ‘blowoff’ move after BTC vs. M1 liquidity hit a record high.

X 用戶（前 Twitter）TechDev_52（一位創業家和加密貨幣分析師）表示，在 BTC 與 M1 流動性創下歷史新高後，BTC 可能會出現「井噴」走勢。

‘$BTC had no business setting new highs in 2021. M1 soared to record highs, but #bitcoin couldn't set one against it. Now that it's broken above its 2M supertrend, we're likely in for that blowoff move it's always signaled.’

「$BTC 沒有資格在 2021 年創下新高。M1 飆升至歷史新高，但 #bitcoin 無法與之抗衡。現在它已經突破了 200 萬超級趨勢，我們很可能會迎來它總是發出的信號。

Source: X/TechDev_52

資料來源：X/TechDev_52

The analyst attributed the lack of a ‘blowoff’ in 2021 to the ‘COVID panic M1 liquidity,’ when BTC displayed a similar breakout against the money supply.

這位分析師將 2021 年缺乏“井噴”歸因於“新冠恐慌 M1 流動性”，當時 BTC 相對於貨幣供應量也出現了類似的突破。

For the uninitiated, M1 liquidity measures the most liquid portion of the money supply. It includes currency and any assets that can be quickly converted to cash. In contrast, M2 includes some ‘less liquid parts’ of the money supply, such as savings deposits.

對外行人來說，M1 流動性衡量的是貨幣供給中流動性最強的部分。它包括貨幣和任何可以快速轉換為現金的資產。相比之下，M2 包括貨幣供應中一些“流動性較低的部分”，例如儲蓄存款。

Interestingly, another analyst, Willy Woo, highlighted a 0.7% expansion in M2. In previous cycles, an increase in the money supply has led to a rise in BTC’s value in USD terms.

有趣的是，另一位分析師 Willy Woo 強調 M2 擴張 0.7%。在先前的周期中，貨幣供應量的增加導致比特幣以美元計算的價值上漲。

It remains to be seen whether the BTC’s breakout against M1 liquidity and M2 expansion will propel it to break out of the range.

BTC突破M1流動性和M2擴張是否會推動其突破該區間還有待觀察。

However, recent data showed that leveraged funds hit record BTC short positions, possibly indicating a hedge against any potential BTC drop or bets on a price correction.

然而，最近的數據顯示，槓桿基金的 BTC 空頭部位創下歷史新高，這可能表明對沖任何潛在的 BTC 下跌或押注價格調整。

Source: X/ZeroHedge

資料來源：X/ZeroHedge

Meanwhile, a short-term move towards $70.5K was more likely after sweeping the liquidity at $68.4K.

同時，在流動性掃蕩至 68,400 美元後，短期內更有可能上漲至 70,500 美元。

According to Coinglass data, both levels, marked orange, were key liquidity cluster points that could attract price action.

根據 Coinglass 數據，這兩個標記為橙色的水平都是可能吸引價格走勢的關鍵流動性聚集點。

Source: Coinglass

來源：Coinglass