比特币 [BTC] 的前进道路可能取决于美国的货币供应

数周以来，比特币 [BTC] 的价格一直在 6 万美元至 7 万美元之间盘整，这对于靠波动性获利的投机者来说是一个无聊的设置。

Bitcoin [BTC] has been trading within a narrow price range for weeks, a dull development for speculators who prefer high volatility.

几周来，比特币 [BTC] 一直在狭窄的价格区间内交易，这对于喜欢高波动性的投机者来说是一个缓慢的发展。

This sideways movement began after the April halving event and the lack of demand for US spot BTC ETFs.

这种横盘走势是在 4 月份减半事件以及美国现货 BTC ETF 需求缺乏之后开始的。

However, a new narrative is emerging for the king coin — the rising US money supply.

然而，对于王币来说，一种新的叙述正在出现——美国货币供应量的增加。

Bitcoin’s path forward

比特币的前进之路

According to X user (formerly Twitter) TechDev_52, an entrepreneur and crypto analyst, BTC could be primed for a ‘blowoff’ move after BTC vs. M1 liquidity hit a record high.

X 用户（前 Twitter）TechDev_52（一位企业家和加密货币分析师）表示，在 BTC 与 M1 流动性创下历史新高后，BTC 可能会出现“井喷”走势。

‘$BTC had no business setting new highs in 2021. M1 soared to record highs, but #bitcoin couldn't set one against it. Now that it's broken above its 2M supertrend, we're likely in for that blowoff move it's always signaled.’

“$BTC 没有资格在 2021 年创下新高。M1 飙升至历史新高，但 #bitcoin 无法与之抗衡。现在它已经突破了 200 万超级趋势，我们很可能会迎来它总是发出的信号。

Source: X/TechDev_52

来源：X/TechDev_52

The analyst attributed the lack of a ‘blowoff’ in 2021 to the ‘COVID panic M1 liquidity,’ when BTC displayed a similar breakout against the money supply.

这位分析师将 2021 年缺乏“井喷”归因于“新冠肺炎恐慌 M1 流动性”，当时 BTC 相对于货币供应量也出现了类似的突破。

For the uninitiated, M1 liquidity measures the most liquid portion of the money supply. It includes currency and any assets that can be quickly converted to cash. In contrast, M2 includes some ‘less liquid parts’ of the money supply, such as savings deposits.

对于外行来说，M1 流动性衡量的是货币供应量中流动性最强的部分。它包括货币和任何可以快速转换为现金的资产。相比之下，M2 包括货币供应中一些“流动性较低的部分”，例如储蓄存款。

Interestingly, another analyst, Willy Woo, highlighted a 0.7% expansion in M2. In previous cycles, an increase in the money supply has led to a rise in BTC’s value in USD terms.

有趣的是，另一位分析师 Willy Woo 强调 M2 扩张 0.7%。在之前的周期中，货币供应量的增加导致比特币以美元计算的价值上涨。

It remains to be seen whether the BTC’s breakout against M1 liquidity and M2 expansion will propel it to break out of the range.

BTC突破M1流动性和M2扩张是否会推动其突破该区间还有待观察。

However, recent data showed that leveraged funds hit record BTC short positions, possibly indicating a hedge against any potential BTC drop or bets on a price correction.

然而，最近的数据显示，杠杆基金的 BTC 空头头寸创下历史新高，这可能表明对冲任何潜在的 BTC 下跌或押注价格调整。

Source: X/ZeroHedge

资料来源：X/ZeroHedge

Meanwhile, a short-term move towards $70.5K was more likely after sweeping the liquidity at $68.4K.

与此同时，在流动性扫荡至 68,400 美元后，短期内更有可能上涨至 70,500 美元。

According to Coinglass data, both levels, marked orange, were key liquidity cluster points that could attract price action.

根据 Coinglass 数据，这两个标记为橙色的水平都是可能吸引价格走势的关键流动性聚集点。

Source: Coinglass

来源：Coinglass