如果價格超過$ 115K，比特幣（BTC）可能會變成拋物線

比特幣（BTC）於5月27日展現出實力，在美國股票市場強大的股票市場開放之後，短暫標記了110,700美元，特朗普媒體和技術集團宣布將為比特幣財政部籌集25億美元。

Key takeaways:

關鍵要點：

* Bitcoin (BTC) could see parabolic gains if prices move above $115,000 to liquidate more than $7 billion in short positions, according to data from CoinGlass.

*根據Coinglass的數據，如果價格提高到115,000美元以上以清算超過70億美元的短額，則比特幣（BTC）可能會看到拋物線收益。

* Onchain indicators enter overheated territory, suggesting prolonged profit-taking from BTC investors.

* OnChain指標進入過熱領土，表明BTC投資者的盈利延長。

* The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) shows a rapid shift to ultra-loose territory after a tightening phase in February 2025, Ecoinometrics noted.

* EcoinoSetrics指出， *國家金融條件指數（NFCI）在2025年2月的收緊階段之後，向超浮游領土迅速轉移。

Bitcoin (BTC) showed resilience on May 27, briefly touching $110,700 following a strong US equities market open and the Trump Media and Technology Group’s announcement that it would be raising $2.5 billion for a Bitcoin treasury.

比特幣（BTC）在5月27日表現出彈性，在美國股票市場強勁的市場開放之後，短暫觸及了110,700美元，特朗普媒體和技術集團宣布將為比特幣財政部籌集25億美元。

Bitcoin’s bullish momentum aligns with the favorable US financial conditions, as noted by Ecoinometrics. The macroeconomic-focused Bitcoin newsletter highlighted that the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) shows a rapid shift to ultra-loose territory after a tightening phase in February 2025.

正如生態計量學指出的那樣，比特幣的看漲勢頭與美國的財務狀況保持一致。以宏觀經濟為重點的比特幣通訊強調，國家金融狀況指數（NFCI）在2025年2月的緊縮階段後，迅速轉移到了超浮游領土。

The NFCI, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, tracks stress in the financial system by aggregating measures like credit spreads, leverage, and funding conditions. When the index moves into looser territory, it reflects easier access to capital and reduced market stress—conditions that typically encourage risk-taking behavior among investors. For high-beta assets like Bitcoin, such periods often coincide with price rallies as capital flows into speculative markets.

由芝加哥聯邦儲備銀行出版的NFCI通過匯總信貸利差，槓桿和資金條件等措施來追踪金融體系中的壓力。當該指數進入更寬鬆的領土時，它反映了更容易獲得資本和減少市場壓力的條件，這些條件通常會鼓勵投資者之間的冒險行為。對於像比特幣這樣的高β資產，這些時期通常與資本流入投機市場的價格集會相吻合。

Ecoinometrics mentioned that within four weeks, liquidity has returned, creating a supportive macroeconomic environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. The newsletter noted,

生態計量學指出，在四個星期內，流動性恢復了，為像比特幣這樣的風險資產創造了支持性的宏觀經濟環境。新聞通訊指出，

“After reaching a peak of stress in February 2025, financial conditions rapidly shifted to looser territory. Within four weeks, the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) went from +3.5 to -2.5.”

“在2025年2月達到壓力達到壓力之後，金融條件迅速轉移到了寬鬆的領土。在四個星期內，國家金融條件指數（NFCI）從+3.5升至-2.5。”

Bitcoin is now just 2% away from its all-time high price, and data from CoinGlass indicates that the probability of a short-squeeze remains elevated due to significant sell-side liquidity. As illustrated below, if Bitcoin breaches $115,000, over $7 billion in short positions could get liquidated, cascading into a move that pushes prices higher.

現在，比特幣距離其歷史最高價格僅2％，而來自Coinglass的數據表明，由於賣方流動性的大量流動性，短方面的概率仍然升高。如下所示，如果比特幣違反115,000美元，超過70億美元的短職位可能會被清算，從而逐漸發展為提高價格的舉動。

Onchain data shows Bitcoin in ‘overheated zone’

OnChain數據顯示“過熱區域”中的比特幣

While the overall momentum remains bullish, Bitcoin’s rally has pushed the market into a zone where historical patterns suggest caution. Two key onchain indicators—Supply in Profit Market Bands and the Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio—are flashing signals consistent with prior market tops.

儘管總體勢頭仍然看漲，但比特幣的集會將市場推向了一個歷史模式表明謹慎的區域。兩個關鍵的OnChain指標（在利潤市場頻段和高級淨UTXO供應率中供應）閃爍的信號與先前的市場頂級一致。

The Supply in Profit Market Bands metric tracks how much of the circulating BTC supply is currently in profit. As of late May 2025, this figure has surged to 19.4 million BTC, approaching historical extremes and entering the “Overheated Zone.” Previously, BTC prices tested this zone on Dec. 17, 2024, which was followed by a price correction to $93,000 from $107,000.

利潤市場頻段的供應指標跟踪當前循環的BTC供應中有多少股份有盈利。截至2025年5月下旬，這個數字已飆升至1940萬BTC，接近歷史極端並進入“過熱區”。以前，BTC價格於2024年12月17日對該區域進行了測試，隨後，價格更正為93,000美元，從107,000美元起。

Simultaneously, the Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio (NUSR), which compares profitable versus unprofitable UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs), is touching the historical ceiling at 0.95—a level often associated with sell signals. The red markers on the chart highlight prior instances when such conditions led to either local price tops or prolonged consolidations.

同時，比較盈利與無利可圖的UTXO（無需交易輸出）的高級淨UTXO供應率（NUSR），它的歷史天花板為0.95，這是與賣出信號相關的水平。圖表上的紅色標記突出顯示了此類條件導致本地價格上漲或延長合併的情況。

The above data does not guarantee an immediate drop, but these metrics suggest a high probability of increased volatility and profit-taking in the short-term.

上述數據不能保證立即下降，但是這些指標表明，短期內波動性和獲利的可能性很高。