如果价格超过$ 115K，比特币（BTC）可能会变成抛物线

比特币（BTC）于5月27日展现出实力，在美国股票市场强大的股票市场开放之后，短暂标记了110,700美元，特朗普媒体和技术集团宣布将为比特币财政部筹集25亿美元。

Key takeaways:

关键要点：

* Bitcoin (BTC) could see parabolic gains if prices move above $115,000 to liquidate more than $7 billion in short positions, according to data from CoinGlass.

*根据Coinglass的数据，如果价格提高到115,000美元以上以清算超过70亿美元的短额，则比特币（BTC）可能会看到抛物线收益。

* Onchain indicators enter overheated territory, suggesting prolonged profit-taking from BTC investors.

* OnChain指标进入过热领土，表明BTC投资者的盈利延长。

* The National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) shows a rapid shift to ultra-loose territory after a tightening phase in February 2025, Ecoinometrics noted.

* EcoinoSetrics指出， *国家金融条件指数（NFCI）在2025年2月的收紧阶段之后，向超浮游领土迅速转移。

Bitcoin (BTC) showed resilience on May 27, briefly touching $110,700 following a strong US equities market open and the Trump Media and Technology Group’s announcement that it would be raising $2.5 billion for a Bitcoin treasury.

比特币（BTC）在5月27日表现出弹性，在美国股票市场强劲的市场开放之后，短暂触及了110,700美元，特朗普媒体和技术集团宣布将为比特币财政部筹集25亿美元。

Bitcoin’s bullish momentum aligns with the favorable US financial conditions, as noted by Ecoinometrics. The macroeconomic-focused Bitcoin newsletter highlighted that the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) shows a rapid shift to ultra-loose territory after a tightening phase in February 2025.

正如生态计量学指出的那样，比特币的看涨势头与美国的财务状况保持一致。以宏观经济为重点的比特币通讯强调，国家金融状况指数（NFCI）在2025年2月的紧缩阶段后，迅速转移到了超浮游领土。

The NFCI, published by the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, tracks stress in the financial system by aggregating measures like credit spreads, leverage, and funding conditions. When the index moves into looser territory, it reflects easier access to capital and reduced market stress—conditions that typically encourage risk-taking behavior among investors. For high-beta assets like Bitcoin, such periods often coincide with price rallies as capital flows into speculative markets.

由芝加哥联邦储备银行出版的NFCI通过汇总信贷利差，杠杆和资金条件等措施来追踪金融体系中的压力。当该指数进入更宽松的领土时，它反映了更容易获得资本和减少市场压力的条件，这些条件通常会鼓励投资者之间的冒险行为。对于像比特币这样的高β资产，这些时期通常与资本流入投机市场的价格集会相吻合。

Ecoinometrics mentioned that within four weeks, liquidity has returned, creating a supportive macroeconomic environment for risk assets like Bitcoin. The newsletter noted,

生态计量学指出，在四个星期内，流动性恢复了，为像比特币这样的风险资产创造了支持性的宏观经济环境。新闻通讯指出，

“After reaching a peak of stress in February 2025, financial conditions rapidly shifted to looser territory. Within four weeks, the National Financial Conditions Index (NFCI) went from +3.5 to -2.5.”

“在2025年2月达到压力达到压力之后，金融条件迅速转移到了宽松的领土。在四个星期内，国家金融条件指数（NFCI）从+3.5升至-2.5。”

Bitcoin is now just 2% away from its all-time high price, and data from CoinGlass indicates that the probability of a short-squeeze remains elevated due to significant sell-side liquidity. As illustrated below, if Bitcoin breaches $115,000, over $7 billion in short positions could get liquidated, cascading into a move that pushes prices higher.

现在，比特币距离其历史最高价格仅2％，而来自Coinglass的数据表明，由于卖方流动性的大量流动性，短方面的概率仍然升高。如下所示，如果比特币违反115,000美元，超过70亿美元的短职位可能会被清算，从而逐渐发展为提高价格的举动。

Onchain data shows Bitcoin in ‘overheated zone’

OnChain数据显示“过热区域”中的比特币

While the overall momentum remains bullish, Bitcoin’s rally has pushed the market into a zone where historical patterns suggest caution. Two key onchain indicators—Supply in Profit Market Bands and the Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio—are flashing signals consistent with prior market tops.

尽管总体势头仍然看涨，但比特币的集会将市场推向了一个历史模式表明谨慎的区域。两个关键的OnChain指标（在利润市场频段和高级净UTXO供应率中供应）闪烁的信号与先前的市场顶级一致。

The Supply in Profit Market Bands metric tracks how much of the circulating BTC supply is currently in profit. As of late May 2025, this figure has surged to 19.4 million BTC, approaching historical extremes and entering the “Overheated Zone.” Previously, BTC prices tested this zone on Dec. 17, 2024, which was followed by a price correction to $93,000 from $107,000.

利润市场频段的供应指标跟踪当前循环的BTC供应中有多少股份有盈利。截至2025年5月下旬，这个数字已飙升至1940万BTC，接近历史极端并进入“过热区”。以前，BTC价格于2024年12月17日对该区域进行了测试，随后，价格更正为93,000美元，从107,000美元起。

Simultaneously, the Advanced Net UTXO Supply Ratio (NUSR), which compares profitable versus unprofitable UTXOs (unspent transaction outputs), is touching the historical ceiling at 0.95—a level often associated with sell signals. The red markers on the chart highlight prior instances when such conditions led to either local price tops or prolonged consolidations.

同时，比较盈利与无利可图的UTXO（无需交易输出）的高级净UTXO供应率（NUSR），它的历史天花板为0.95，这是与卖出信号相关的水平。图表上的红色标记突出显示了此类条件导致本地价格上涨或延长合并的情况。

The above data does not guarantee an immediate drop, but these metrics suggest a high probability of increased volatility and profit-taking in the short-term.

上述数据不能保证立即下降，但是这些指标表明，短期内波动性和获利的可能性很高。