VanEck：比特幣（BTC）在過去一年中超越所有主要資產類別，前景光明

過去 12 個月比特幣上漲 141%

Bitcoin has outperformed every major asset class over the past year, recent data from American investment management firm VanEck shows.

美國投資管理公司 VanEck 的最新數據顯示，過去一年，比特幣的表現優於所有主要資產類別。

Over the past 12 months, Bitcoin has risen by 141%. Source: Brave New Coin Bitcoin Liquid Index

過去 12 個月，比特幣上漲了 141%。資料來源：Brave New Coin 比特幣流動指數

As of September 26th 2024, Bitcoin has seen its price surge by 141% over the past year – far more than traditional assets like Gold or the S&P 500.

截至 2024 年 9 月 26 日，比特幣的價格在過去一年中飆升了 141%，遠遠超過黃金或標準普爾 500 指數等傳統資產。

According to the VanEck report, a key factor driving this rise is the surge in crypto venture capital (VC) investments. Over the past year, crypto VC flows have jumped by 87%. Bitcoin’s market capitalization now stands at approximately $1.25 trillion – up by 15% since last year, the report noted.

VanEck 報告稱，推動這一成長的關鍵因素是加密貨幣風險投資 (VC) 投資的激增。過去一年，加密貨幣創投流量激增 87%。報告指出，比特幣的市值目前約為 1.25 兆美元，自去年以來增長了 15%。

Bitcoin is transitioning into a more established role as a “store of value and a tool for wealth transfer”, rather than just a speculative asset. This shift may be bolstering its long-term stability but it also presents challenges, especially as the network’s scalability and energy consumption issues persist, the report said.

比特幣正在轉變為一種更成熟的角色，即“價值儲存和財富轉移工具”，而不僅僅是一種投機資產。報告稱，這種轉變可能會增強其長期穩定性，但也帶來了挑戰，特別是在網路的可擴展性和能耗問題持續存在的情況下。

In the report, Matthew Sigel, Digital Assets Research head at VanEck, stated that “Bitcoin’s adoption today is being driven by different forces than in 2023, when retail demand and viral innovations like inscriptions played a major role.”

VanEck 數位資產研究主管 Matthew Sigel 在報告中表示，“比特幣今天的採用是由與 2023 年不同的力量推動的，當時零售需求和銘文等病毒式創新發揮了主要作用。”

Institutions and Nations Adoption Are Driving Bitcoin’s GrowthSince the U.S. authorized the listing of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) earlier this year, institutional demand for these products has surged. As of September, Bitcoin ETFs have gathered net assets of around $55 billion, and financial advisors have embraced these funds faster than any other new ETF in history.

機構和國家的採用正在推動比特幣的成長自今年稍早美國授權現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）上市以來，機構對這些產品的需求激增。截至 9 月，比特幣 ETF 的淨資產已達到約 550 億美元，財務顧問接受這些資金的速度比歷史上任何其他新 ETF 都要快。

The involvement of seven countries in Bitcoin mining, including recent entrants Ethiopia, Kenya, and Argentina, will signal a broader global trend toward de-dollarization, with countries exploring Bitcoin as a potential tool for cross-border trade, the VanEck report noted.

VanEck 報告指出，包括最近進入的埃塞俄比亞、肯亞和阿根廷在內的七個國家參與比特幣挖礦，將標誌著更廣泛的全球去美元化趨勢，各國正在探索將比特幣作為跨境貿易的潛在工具。

While Bitcoin continues to rally, miners are facing a more difficult situation. The April 2024 “halving” event halved mining rewards, dropping them from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block. According to VanEck, the hashprice, a measure of revenue earned per unit of computational power, has crashed by 97% over the past year.

在比特幣持續上漲的同時，礦商面臨更困難的處境。 2024 年 4 月的「減半」事件將挖礦獎勵減半，從每個區塊 6.25 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC。 VanEck 表示，哈希價格（衡量每單位運算能力賺取的收入的指標）在過去一年中暴跌了 97%。

Fed Rate Cuts and Election Could Boost BitcoinThe Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and the upcoming U.S. elections are the key factors that will influence Bitcoin’s future performance the most, VanEck said. Continued monetary easing could boost demand for Bitcoin as investors seek higher returns in a low-yield environment, the VanEck report predicts.

聯準會降息和大選可能提振比特幣 聯準會降息和即將到來的美國大選是對比特幣未來表現影響最大的關鍵因素，VanEck 表示。 VanEck 報告預測，隨著投資者在低收益環境中尋求更高回報，持續的貨幣寬鬆可能會提振對比特幣的需求。

On the political front, Bitcoin stands to gain no matter if Kamala Biden or Donald Trump wins the upcoming U.S. presidential election. A Harris presidency could drive Bitcoin adoption by spurring interest in decentralized financial systems as a response to stricter regulations and anti-business policies, the VanEck report suggests.

在政治方面，無論卡馬拉·拜登還是唐納德·川普贏得即將到來的美國總統大選，比特幣都將受益。 VanEck 的報告指出，哈里斯擔任總統可能會激發人們對去中心化金融體系的興趣，以應對更嚴格的監管和反商業政策，從而推動比特幣的採用。

Meanwhile, a Trump administration is expected to create a more favorable landscape for Bitcoin through deregulation, fostering an environment where the cryptocurrency and broader crypto ecosystem could thrive. Both scenarios suggest that Bitcoin will continue to rise in a politically charged environment, the report said.

同時，川普政府預計將透過放鬆管制為比特幣創造一個更有利的環境，創造一個讓加密貨幣和更廣泛的加密生態系統蓬勃發展的環境。報告稱，這兩種情況都顯示比特幣將在充滿政治色彩的環境中繼續上漲。

Bitcoin’s long-term growth is assured, citing global trends like the rising demand for censorship-resistant networks, growing institutional adoption, and increasing involvement of sovereign nations in Bitcoin mining and trade, the report concluded. By 2050, Bitcoin’s value could skyrocket to $2.9 million per coin, predicting its bright future as a key player in the global financial system, VanEck predicts.

報告總結道，比特幣的長期成長是有保證的，理由是全球趨勢，例如對抗審查網路的需求不斷增長、機構採用不斷增加以及主權國家越來越多地參與比特幣開採和貿易。 VanEck 預測，到 2050 年，比特幣的價值可能會飆升至每枚 290 萬美元，預示著其作為全球金融體系關鍵參與者的光明前景。