VanEck：比特币（BTC）在过去一年中超越所有主要资产类别，前景光明

过去 12 个月比特币上涨 141%

Bitcoin has outperformed every major asset class over the past year, recent data from American investment management firm VanEck shows.

美国投资管理公司 VanEck 的最新数据显示，过去一年，比特币的表现优于所有主要资产类别。

Over the past 12 months, Bitcoin has risen by 141%. Source: Brave New Coin Bitcoin Liquid Index

过去12个月，比特币上涨了141%。资料来源：Brave New Coin 比特币流动性指数

As of September 26th 2024, Bitcoin has seen its price surge by 141% over the past year – far more than traditional assets like Gold or the S&P 500.

截至 2024 年 9 月 26 日，比特币的价格在过去一年中飙升了 141%，远远超过黄金或标准普尔 500 指数等传统资产。

According to the VanEck report, a key factor driving this rise is the surge in crypto venture capital (VC) investments. Over the past year, crypto VC flows have jumped by 87%. Bitcoin’s market capitalization now stands at approximately $1.25 trillion – up by 15% since last year, the report noted.

VanEck 报告称，推动这一增长的一个关键因素是加密货币风险投资 (VC) 投资的激增。过去一年，加密货币风险投资流量猛增 87%。报告指出，比特币的市值目前约为 1.25 万亿美元，自去年以来增长了 15%。

Bitcoin is transitioning into a more established role as a “store of value and a tool for wealth transfer”, rather than just a speculative asset. This shift may be bolstering its long-term stability but it also presents challenges, especially as the network’s scalability and energy consumption issues persist, the report said.

比特币正在转变为一种更成熟的角色，即“价值存储和财富转移工具”，而不仅仅是一种投机资产。报告称，这种转变可能会增强其长期稳定性，但也带来了挑战，特别是在网络的可扩展性和能耗问题持续存在的情况下。

In the report, Matthew Sigel, Digital Assets Research head at VanEck, stated that “Bitcoin’s adoption today is being driven by different forces than in 2023, when retail demand and viral innovations like inscriptions played a major role.”

VanEck 数字资产研究主管 Matthew Sigel 在报告中表示，“比特币今天的采用是由与 2023 年不同的力量推动的，当时零售需求和铭文等病毒式创新发挥了主要作用。”

Institutions and Nations Adoption Are Driving Bitcoin’s GrowthSince the U.S. authorized the listing of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) earlier this year, institutional demand for these products has surged. As of September, Bitcoin ETFs have gathered net assets of around $55 billion, and financial advisors have embraced these funds faster than any other new ETF in history.

机构和国家的采用正在推动比特币的增长自今年早些时候美国授权现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）上市以来，机构对这些产品的需求激增。截至 9 月，比特币 ETF 的净资产已达到约 550 亿美元，财务顾问接受这些资金的速度比历史上任何其他新 ETF 都要快。

The involvement of seven countries in Bitcoin mining, including recent entrants Ethiopia, Kenya, and Argentina, will signal a broader global trend toward de-dollarization, with countries exploring Bitcoin as a potential tool for cross-border trade, the VanEck report noted.

VanEck 报告指出，包括最近进入的埃塞俄比亚、肯尼亚和阿根廷在内的七个国家参与比特币挖矿，将标志着更广泛的全球去美元化趋势，各国正在探索将比特币作为跨境贸易的潜在工具。

While Bitcoin continues to rally, miners are facing a more difficult situation. The April 2024 “halving” event halved mining rewards, dropping them from 6.25 to 3.125 BTC per block. According to VanEck, the hashprice, a measure of revenue earned per unit of computational power, has crashed by 97% over the past year.

在比特币持续上涨的同时，矿商面临着更加困难的处境。 2024 年 4 月的“减半”事件将挖矿奖励减半，从每个区块 6.25 BTC 降至 3.125 BTC。 VanEck 表示，哈希价格（衡量每单位计算能力赚取的收入的指标）在过去一年中暴跌了 97%。

Fed Rate Cuts and Election Could Boost BitcoinThe Federal Reserve’s rate cuts and the upcoming U.S. elections are the key factors that will influence Bitcoin’s future performance the most, VanEck said. Continued monetary easing could boost demand for Bitcoin as investors seek higher returns in a low-yield environment, the VanEck report predicts.

美联储降息和大选可能提振比特币 美联储降息和即将到来的美国大选是对比特币未来表现影响最大的关键因素，VanEck 表示。 VanEck 报告预测，随着投资者在低收益环境中寻求更高回报，持续的货币宽松可能会提振对比特币的需求。

On the political front, Bitcoin stands to gain no matter if Kamala Biden or Donald Trump wins the upcoming U.S. presidential election. A Harris presidency could drive Bitcoin adoption by spurring interest in decentralized financial systems as a response to stricter regulations and anti-business policies, the VanEck report suggests.

在政治方面，无论卡马拉·拜登还是唐纳德·特朗普赢得即将到来的美国总统大选，比特币都将受益。 VanEck 的报告指出，哈里斯担任总统可能会激发人们对去中心化金融系统的兴趣，以应对更严格的监管和反商业政策，从而推动比特币的采用。

Meanwhile, a Trump administration is expected to create a more favorable landscape for Bitcoin through deregulation, fostering an environment where the cryptocurrency and broader crypto ecosystem could thrive. Both scenarios suggest that Bitcoin will continue to rise in a politically charged environment, the report said.

与此同时，特朗普政府预计将通过放松管制为比特币创造一个更有利的环境，营造一个让加密货币和更广泛的加密生态系统蓬勃发展的环境。报告称，这两种情况都表明比特币将在充满政治色彩的环境中继续上涨。

Bitcoin’s long-term growth is assured, citing global trends like the rising demand for censorship-resistant networks, growing institutional adoption, and increasing involvement of sovereign nations in Bitcoin mining and trade, the report concluded. By 2050, Bitcoin’s value could skyrocket to $2.9 million per coin, predicting its bright future as a key player in the global financial system, VanEck predicts.

报告总结道，比特币的长期增长是有保证的，理由是全球趋势，例如对抗审查网络的需求不断增长、机构采用不断增加以及主权国家越来越多地参与比特币开采和贸易。 VanEck 预测，到 2050 年，比特币的价值可能会飙升至每枚 290 万美元，预示着其作为全球金融体系关键参与者的光明未来。