加密貨幣分析師 TechDev 表示，在價格大幅上漲之前，比特幣可能正處於熊市陷阱之中，以擺脫弱勢勢力

這位匿名分析師在社交媒體平台 X 上與他的 464,000 名粉絲分享了一張比特幣圖表，表明 BTC 正在反映 2017 年的情況

Renowned crypto analyst TechDev says that Bitcoin (BTC) is likely setting up a bear trap to shake out weak hands before a strong move up in price.

著名加密貨幣分析師 TechDev 表示，比特幣（BTC）可能會設置一個熊市陷阱，以在價格大幅上漲之前擺脫弱勢。

The pseudonymous analyst tells his 464,000 followers on social media platform X that a Bitcoin chart shows BTC is echoing its 2017 pre-parabola price action after about 1,200 days of accumulation.

這位匿名分析師在社群媒體平台 X 上告訴他的 464,000 名粉絲，比特幣圖表顯示，經過約 1,200 天的積累，比特幣正在呼應 2017 年拋物線前的價格走勢。

TechDev’s chart also features the net unrealized profit and loss (NUPL) metric, which gauges the overall sentiment of market participants by tracking the unrealized gains and losses of all coins in circulation.

TechDev 的圖表還具有未實現淨損益（NUPL）指標，該指標透過追蹤所有流通代幣的未實現損益來衡量市場參與者的整體情緒。

According to his chart, the analyst sees Bitcoin’s NUPL moving through four distinct phases in a bull cycle: hope, optimism, belief and euphoria. The analyst suggests that Bitcoin is in the belief stage where the biggest rallies of the bull run occur.

根據他的圖表，分析師認為比特幣的 NUPL 在牛市週期中經歷了四個不同的階段：希望、樂觀、信念和欣快感。分析師表示，比特幣正處於多頭最大反彈發生的信念階段。

“Bitcoin.”

“比特幣。”

TechDev shares another chart showing what he believes are the 16 different stages of the Bitcoin market cycle.

TechDev 分享了另一張圖表，顯示了他認為的比特幣市場週期的 16 個不同階段。

He believes that BTC is currently in the “bear trap” phase where a “correction fed by overvaluation concerns and pre-mature fears that the cycle has ended” brings prices down, just before a strong expansion into the euphoria zone.

他認為，比特幣目前正處於「熊市陷阱」階段，「高估擔憂和對週期結束的過早擔憂引發的修正」導致價格下跌，而就在強勁擴張進入欣快區域之前。

TechDev also examines two indicators that he says have a strong track record at calling the beginning and end of previous Bitcoin blow-off tops: the relative strength index (RSI) and the Chaiken Money Flow (CMF) index. The RSI is a momentum indicator while the CMF is a volume-weighted average of accumulation and distribution over a given period.

TechDev 也研究了兩個指標，他說這兩個指標在判斷先前比特幣爆發頂部的開始和結束方面有著良好的記錄：相對強弱指數 (RSI) 和柴肯資金流 (CMF) 指數。 RSI 是動量指標，而 CMF 是在給定期間內累積和分配的成交量加權平均值。

Says TechDev,

TechDev 表示，

“RSI calls the tops. CMF calls the blow-offs.”

「RSI 見頂。 CMF 稱之為「吹響」。

Looking at the trader’s chart, he appears to be suggesting that the RSI has yet to hit a descending resistance line that signaled the end of bull markets in previous cycles. Meanwhile, the CMF has just broken above a resistance level that has previously signaled the start of major BTC rallies.

從該交易員的圖表來看，他似乎暗示 RSI 尚未觸及下降阻力線，該阻力線標誌著先前週期牛市的結束。同時，CMF 剛剛突破阻力位，該阻力位先前預示著 BTC 大幅上漲的開始。

At time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $55,282.

截至撰寫本文時，比特幣交易價格為 55,282 美元。

Don't Miss a Beat – Subscribe to get email alerts delivered directly to your inbox Check Price Action Follow us on X, Facebook and Telegram Surf The Daily Hodl Mix

不要錯過任何一個節拍 – 訂閱即可將電子郵件提醒直接發送到您的收件匣 查看價格行動 在 X、Facebook 和 Telegram 上關注我們 衝浪每日 Hodl Mix

Generated Image: DALLE3

產生的影像：DALLE3