比特幣（BTC）市場可能不會經歷大規模暴跌，原因如下

分析平台 CryptoQuant 的創辦人 Ki Young Ju 找到了令人信服的理由，相信比特幣市場可能不會經歷大規模拋售。

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has shared his perspective on Bitcoin's market trend following an analysis of the “Buy/Sell Quote Volume Difference” for BTC across all centralized exchanges. This metric showcases the disparities between buy and sell walls on liquid platforms.

CryptoQuant 創辦人 Ki Young Ju 在分析了所有中心化交易所中 BTC 的「買入/賣出報價量差異」後，分享了他對比特幣市場趨勢的看法。此指標顯示了流動平台上買賣牆之間的差異。

Young Ju's analysis revealed that Bitcoin's buy walls across all centralized exchanges are currently strong enough to offset the sell walls. He further strengthens his argument by comparing the 2020-2022 cycle with the current 2023-2024 cycle.

Young Ju 的分析顯示，目前所有中心化交易所的比特幣買入牆都足夠強大，足以抵消賣出牆。他透過將 2020-2022 年週期與目前的 2023-2024 年週期進行比較，進一步強化了自己的論點。

Bitcoin Buy/Sell Wall in the 2020-2022 Cycle

2020-2022 年週期中的比特幣買賣牆

From mid-2020, buy walls (the green areas in the chart below) initially dominated as Bitcoin's price surged to new all-time highs. However, starting in May 2021, sell walls (red areas) thickened, indicating that more traders were trying to sell BTC.

從 2020 年中期開始，隨著比特幣價格飆升至歷史新高，買入牆（下圖中的綠色區域）最初佔據主導地位。然而，從 2021 年 5 月開始，賣出牆（紅色區域）變厚，表明更多交易者試圖賣出 BTC。

This shift aligned with the initial price correction from around $60,000 to $30,000 before a rally to an all-time high in November 2021. During the recovery phase, sell walls continued to thicken, intensifying until the end of the cycle, with sellers dominating throughout most of 2022.

這一轉變與最初的價格調整一致，從60,000 美元左右調整至30,000 美元，然後在2021 年11 月反彈至歷史高點。中佔主導地位。

This period coincided with Bitcoin's drop from approximately $69K to $15K between November 2021 and 2022.

這段時期恰逢比特幣在 2021 年 11 月至 2022 年期間從約 6.9 萬美元跌至 1.5 萬美元。

In contrast, the 2023-2024 chart began with the dominance of sell walls (red), but a notable shift has been observed as 2024 progresses.

相較之下，2023-2024 年圖表一開始以賣出牆（紅色）為主，但隨著 2024 年的進展，我們觀察到了顯著的轉變。

Specifically, the red area has started to shrink as buy walls grow stronger, indicating increased buying interest. Overall sentiment now appears bullish, with buy walls neutralizing sell pressure in the Bitcoin market. As of October, the Buy/Sell quote volume of Bitcoin across exchanges has flattened.

具體來說，隨著購買牆的增強，紅色區域開始縮小，顯示購買興趣增加。現在整體情緒看漲，買進牆抵消了比特幣市場的賣出壓力。截至 10 月，各交易所的比特幣買進/賣出報價量已趨於平緩。

Is Bitcoin Still in an Uptrend?

比特幣仍處於上升趨勢嗎？

This trend highlights a shift toward accumulation and buyer strength. Ki Young Ju used this latest metric to support his belief that Bitcoin is still in an uptrend and that a new all-time high is still possible this season.

這一趨勢凸顯了向累積和買家力量的轉變。 Ki Young Ju 使用這一最新指標來支持他的信念，即比特幣仍處於上升趨勢，本季仍有可能創下新的歷史高點。

In previous commentary, Young Ju expressed a bullish outlook by noting that "ancient whales" have remained largely inactive. His analysis showed no significant recent deposits to exchanges from these whales, suggesting they may be holding back for more favorable market conditions.

在先前的評論中，Young Ju 表達了樂觀的前景，指出「古代鯨魚」基本上仍然不活躍。他的分析顯示，這些鯨魚最近沒有向交易所存入大量資金，這表明他們可能會為了更有利的市場條件而猶豫不決。

Historically, their activity has coincided with Bitcoin's past rallies in 2017 and 2021. However, their activity has been flat this year, even as Bitcoin peaked in March 2024.

從歷史上看，他們的活動與比特幣在 2017 年和 2021 年的反彈相吻合。

notably, Bitcoin reclaimed the $65K mark today after testing the $59K range last week.

值得注意的是，比特幣在上週測試了 5.9 萬美元區間後，今天重新站上 6.5 萬美元大關。

DisClamier: This content is informational and should not be considered financial advice. The views expressed in this article may include the author's personal opinions and do not reflect The Crypto Basic opinion. Readers are encouraged to do thorough research before making any investment decisions. The Crypto Basic is not responsible for any financial losses.

免責聲明：此內容僅供參考，不應被視為財務建議。本文所表達的觀點可能包含作者的個人觀點，並不反映 The Crypto Basic 的觀點。我們鼓勵讀者在做出任何投資決定之前進行徹底的研究。 Crypto Basic 對任何財務損失不承擔任何責任。