比特币（BTC）市场可能不会经历大规模暴跌，原因如下

分析平台 CryptoQuant 的创始人 Ki Young Ju 找到了令人信服的理由，相信比特币市场可能不会经历大规模抛售。

CryptoQuant founder Ki Young Ju has shared his perspective on Bitcoin's market trend following an analysis of the “Buy/Sell Quote Volume Difference” for BTC across all centralized exchanges. This metric showcases the disparities between buy and sell walls on liquid platforms.

CryptoQuant 创始人 Ki Young Ju 在分析了所有中心化交易所中 BTC 的“买入/卖出报价量差异”后，分享了他对比特币市场趋势的看法。该指标显示了流动平台上买卖墙之间的差异。

Young Ju's analysis revealed that Bitcoin's buy walls across all centralized exchanges are currently strong enough to offset the sell walls. He further strengthens his argument by comparing the 2020-2022 cycle with the current 2023-2024 cycle.

Young Ju 的分析显示，目前所有中心化交易所的比特币买入墙都足够强大，足以抵消卖出墙。他通过将 2020-2022 年周期与当前的 2023-2024 年周期进行比较，进一步强化了自己的论点。

Bitcoin Buy/Sell Wall in the 2020-2022 Cycle

2020-2022 年周期中的比特币买卖墙

From mid-2020, buy walls (the green areas in the chart below) initially dominated as Bitcoin's price surged to new all-time highs. However, starting in May 2021, sell walls (red areas) thickened, indicating that more traders were trying to sell BTC.

从 2020 年中期开始，随着比特币价格飙升至历史新高，买入墙（下图中的绿色区域）最初占据主导地位。然而，从 2021 年 5 月开始，卖出墙（红色区域）变厚，表明更多交易者试图卖出 BTC。

This shift aligned with the initial price correction from around $60,000 to $30,000 before a rally to an all-time high in November 2021. During the recovery phase, sell walls continued to thicken, intensifying until the end of the cycle, with sellers dominating throughout most of 2022.

这一转变与最初的价格调整一致，从 60,000 美元左右调整至 30,000 美元，然后在 2021 年 11 月反弹至历史高点。在复苏阶段，卖盘继续加厚，直至周期结束，卖方在大多数市场中占据主导地位。 2022 年。

This period coincided with Bitcoin's drop from approximately $69K to $15K between November 2021 and 2022.

这段时期恰逢比特币在 2021 年 11 月至 2022 年期间从约 6.9 万美元跌至 1.5 万美元。

In contrast, the 2023-2024 chart began with the dominance of sell walls (red), but a notable shift has been observed as 2024 progresses.

相比之下，2023-2024 年图表一开始以卖出墙（红色）为主，但随着 2024 年的进展，我们观察到了显着的转变。

Specifically, the red area has started to shrink as buy walls grow stronger, indicating increased buying interest. Overall sentiment now appears bullish, with buy walls neutralizing sell pressure in the Bitcoin market. As of October, the Buy/Sell quote volume of Bitcoin across exchanges has flattened.

具体来说，随着购买墙的增强，红色区域开始缩小，表明购买兴趣增加。现在总体情绪看涨，买入墙抵消了比特币市场的卖出压力。截至 10 月，各交易所的比特币买入/卖出报价量已趋于平缓。

Is Bitcoin Still in an Uptrend?

比特币仍处于上升趋势吗？

This trend highlights a shift toward accumulation and buyer strength. Ki Young Ju used this latest metric to support his belief that Bitcoin is still in an uptrend and that a new all-time high is still possible this season.

这一趋势凸显了向积累和买家力量的转变。 Ki Young Ju 使用这一最新指标来支持他的信念，即比特币仍处于上升趋势，并且本季度仍有可能创下新的历史高点。

In previous commentary, Young Ju expressed a bullish outlook by noting that "ancient whales" have remained largely inactive. His analysis showed no significant recent deposits to exchanges from these whales, suggesting they may be holding back for more favorable market conditions.

在之前的评论中，Young Ju 表达了乐观的前景，指出“古代鲸鱼”基本上仍然不活跃。他的分析显示，这些鲸鱼最近没有向交易所存入大量资金，这表明他们可能会为了更有利的市场条件而犹豫不决。

Historically, their activity has coincided with Bitcoin's past rallies in 2017 and 2021. However, their activity has been flat this year, even as Bitcoin peaked in March 2024.

从历史上看，他们的活动与比特币在 2017 年和 2021 年的反弹相吻合。然而，尽管比特币在 2024 年 3 月达到顶峰，但今年他们的活动一直持平。

notably, Bitcoin reclaimed the $65K mark today after testing the $59K range last week.

值得注意的是，比特币在上周测试了 5.9 万美元区间后，今天重新站上 6.5 万美元大关。

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