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歷史數據表明,當比特幣流通量盈利率超過 94% 時,我們往往會因獲利了結而出現拋售。

Bitcoin's (BTC) 12% rally this week may be slowing down due to profit-taking, with data showing that 5% of the circulating BTC supply is at a loss while 95% is in profit.
比特幣(BTC)本週12%的漲幅可能因獲利了結而放緩,數據顯示,流通的BTC供應量中有5%處於虧損狀態,而95%處於盈利狀態。
According to Glassnode, when the percentage of the supply in profit crosses the 94% threshold, bitcoin has historically faced selling pressure.
Glassnode表示,當供應量佔利潤的比例超過94%的門檻時,比特幣歷史上就會面臨拋售壓力。
Long-term holders (LTHs), defined by Glassnode as those holding coins for at least 155 days, could be the ones taking profits, given their reputation for being smart traders who buy when prices are depressed and sell into a rising market. As of writing, LTHs hold only 500,000 BTC at a loss, which is a small fraction, considering they hold 14 million BTC as a cohort.
Glassnode 將長期持有者(LTH) 定義為持有代幣至少155 天的人,他們可能會獲利了結,因為他們被譽為聰明的交易者,會在價格下跌時買入,然後在市場上漲時賣出。截至撰寫本文時,LTH 只持有 50 萬個 BTC,處於虧損狀態,考慮到他們持有 1,400 萬個 BTC,這只是一個很小的比例。
On the other hand, short-term holders currently own 235,000 BTC at a loss, which marks the lowest since March during bitcoin's all-time high.
另一方面,短期持有者目前虧損 235,000 BTC,這是自 3 月比特幣歷史高點以來的最低水準。
Profit-taking has already begun, with Glassnode data showing that over $11 billion in realized profit has taken place in just over a week, with $5.6 billion on Oct. 8 alone, making it the single biggest profit-taking day since May 28.
獲利了結已經開始,Glassnode的數據顯示,在短短一周多的時間裡,已實現利潤超過110億美元,僅10月8日就實現利潤56億美元,成為自5月28日以來最大的單日獲利了結日。
However, two factors that show the strength of this rally are bitcoin dominance making new cycle highs and approaching 60%, which was last seen in April 2021, and BTC remaining resilient even as the DXY index continues to climb higher, now above 103.5. The last time the DXY index was above 103 was during the yen carry trade unwind on Aug. 5, which sent bitcoin plummeting from $65,000 to $49,000 over a few days.
然而,有兩個因素顯示了這次反彈的強度:比特幣的主導地位創造了新的周期高點並接近60%(上次出現在2021 年4 月),並且即使DXY 指數繼續攀升至103.5 以上,比特幣仍然保持彈性。 DXY 指數上一次高於 103 是在 8 月 5 日日圓套利交易平倉期間,導致比特幣在幾天內從 65,000 美元暴跌至 49,000 美元。
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