比特幣(BTC)第二季減半：年底仍有望突破10萬美元

第二季度對比特幣來說並不好，但前景正在明朗。到今年年底，10萬美元仍然遙遙無期。

Bitcoin had a rough second quarter, but the outlook is improving. The $100,000 target is still in sight by year-end.

比特幣第二季表現不佳，但前景正在改善。到年底，10 萬美元的目標仍然遙不可及。

FUD is fading away

FUD 正在消失

Bitcoin fell by 25%, dropping from $71,000 to $53,000. In percentage terms, this is the biggest drop since February.

比特幣下跌 25%，從 71,000 美元跌至 53,000 美元。從百分比來看，這是自二月以來的最大跌幅。

After rising by 69% in Q1, bitcoin fell by 13% in Q2. Despite this correction, it remains the best performing asset class year-to-date (+55%).

比特幣在第一季上漲 69% 後，第二季下跌了 13%。儘管進行了這項調整，它仍然是今年迄今為止表現最好的資產類別（+55%）。

The fourth halving was the main event of the quarter, and its impact on the market was positive. The impact was not immediate, of course. However, in the long run, it is the equivalent of 450 BTC being bought every day and never sold.

第四次減半是本季的重頭戲，對市場的影響是正面的。當然，影響並不是立竿見影的。然而，從長遠來看，這相當於每天購買 450 BTC 並且從未出售。

As we recently covered, bitcoin sales linked to the German government and Mt. Gox prompted traders to hedge. The shift in market sentiment was evident in ETF flows.

正如我們最近報導的那樣，與德國政府和 Mt. Gox 相關的比特幣銷售促使交易者進行對沖。市場情緒的轉變在 ETF 流量中表現得很明顯。

The chart below shows that net flows into ETFs slowed down in Q2, reaching $2.5 billion compared to $12.1 billion in Q1.

下圖顯示，第二季 ETF 淨流入放緩，達到 25 億美元，而第一季為 121 億美元。

We can observe net outflows starting early June — that is, when the old issue of Mt. Gox resurfaced, along with the German government:

我們可以觀察到從 6 月初開始出現淨流出——也就是說，當 Mt. Gox 的老問題與德國政府一起重新浮出水面時：

Net ETF inflows became positive again once the German government sales (50,000 BTC) were completed. Cumulative ETF investments have returned to an all-time high.

德國政府出售（50,000 BTC）完成後，ETF 淨流入再次變為正值。 ETF 累計投資已恢復至歷史最高水準。

As expected, the distributions in the Mt. Gox bankruptcy case (142,000 BTC) did not tank the market. More than 65% of creditors have now been paid back without observing any massive sales. Around 90,000 BTC still need to be distributed, according to Arkham, which is roughly $6 billion.

正如預期的那樣，Mt. Gox 破產案中的分配（142,000 BTC）並沒有讓市場陷入困境。超過 65% 的債權人現已償還，但並未出現任何大規模出售。據 Arkham 稱，仍有約 90,000 BTC 需要分配，約 60 億美元。

China, the United States, and Bitcoin

中國、美國和比特幣

The outlook is clearing, and the upcoming US presidential election is already a very good sign for bitcoin.

前景正在明朗，即將到來的美國總統大選對比特幣來說已經是一個非常好的跡象。

Once skeptical, the former US president has finally changed his stance. The price of bitcoin even increased by nearly 10% following the assassination attempt over the weekend.

一度持懷疑態度的美國前總統終於改變了立場。在周末的暗殺事件發生後，比特幣的價格甚至上漲了近 10%。

His speech at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville, which will take place from July 25-27, promises to be explosive!

他在 7 月 25 日至 27 日於納許維爾舉行的比特幣會議上的演講有望成為爆炸性的！

Also of note, his running mate James Vance revealed in 2022 that he held between $100,000 and $250,000 in bitcoins…

另外值得注意的是，他的競選搭檔 James Vance 在 2022 年透露，他持有 10 萬至 25 萬美元的比特幣…

Another reason to be optimistic is that the CEO of BlackRock — the world’s largest investment fund — continues to praise bitcoin.

另一個樂觀的理由是，全球最大的投資基金貝萊德的執行長繼續稱讚比特幣。

“I did my homework. The opinion I had of bitcoin five years ago was not the right one. I now think that bitcoin is legitimate […]. It is a legitimate financial instrument […]. It is an instrument one invests in when fearful, when their country devalues money due to excessive budget deficits. It allows investing in something outside the control of your government. I firmly believe that bitcoin has a place in a financial portfolio. […] I see bitcoin as digital gold”, he told CNBC.

「我做了我的功課。五年前我對比特幣的看法並不正確。我現在認為比特幣是合法的[...]。它是一種合法的金融工具[…]。當人們感到恐懼時，當他們的國家因預算赤字過多而導致貨幣貶值時，它是一種投資工具。它允許投資於政府控制之外的事物。我堅信比特幣在金融投資組合中佔有一席之地。 […]我將比特幣視為數位黃金”，他告訴 CNBC。

All that remains is to convince Xi Jinping of its merits. This will be difficult as long as China refuses to lift its capital controls. Indeed, no one can prevent bitcoin transactions.

剩下的就是讓習近平相信其優點。只要中國拒絕取消資本管制，這就會很困難。事實上，沒有人可以阻止比特幣交易。

We could imagine that the United States might accept bitcoin becoming the international reserve of value if China agrees to open its financial borders. There would then be no reason to maintain the stigma on bitcoin.

我們可以想像，如果中國同意開放其金融邊界，美國可能會接受比特幣成為國際價值儲備。那就沒有理由維持比特幣的羞恥感。

The authorization of bitcoin-backed ETFs in Hong Kong is an optimistic sign.

比特幣支持的 ETF 在香港獲準是一個樂觀的跡象。

Bitcoin, geopolitical, economic and energy journalist.

比特幣、地緣政治、經濟和能源記者。