比特币(BTC)第二季度减半：年底仍有望突破10万美元

第二季度对比特币来说并不好，但前景正在明朗。到今年年底，10万美元仍然遥遥无期。

Bitcoin had a rough second quarter, but the outlook is improving. The $100,000 target is still in sight by year-end.

比特币第二季度表现不佳，但前景正在改善。到年底，100,000 美元的目标仍然遥不可及。

FUD is fading away

FUD 正在消失

Bitcoin fell by 25%, dropping from $71,000 to $53,000. In percentage terms, this is the biggest drop since February.

比特币下跌 25%，从 71,000 美元跌至 53,000 美元。从百分比来看，这是自二月份以来的最大跌幅。

After rising by 69% in Q1, bitcoin fell by 13% in Q2. Despite this correction, it remains the best performing asset class year-to-date (+55%).

比特币在第一季度上涨 69% 后，第二季度下跌了 13%。尽管进行了这一调整，它仍然是今年迄今为止表现最好的资产类别（+55%）。

The fourth halving was the main event of the quarter, and its impact on the market was positive. The impact was not immediate, of course. However, in the long run, it is the equivalent of 450 BTC being bought every day and never sold.

第四次减半是本季度的重头戏，其对市场的影响是积极的。当然，影响并不是立竿见影的。然而，从长远来看，这相当于每天购买 450 BTC 并且从未出售。

As we recently covered, bitcoin sales linked to the German government and Mt. Gox prompted traders to hedge. The shift in market sentiment was evident in ETF flows.

正如我们最近报道的那样，与德国政府和 Mt. Gox 相关的比特币销售促使交易者进行对冲。市场情绪的转变在 ETF 流量中表现得很明显。

The chart below shows that net flows into ETFs slowed down in Q2, reaching $2.5 billion compared to $12.1 billion in Q1.

下图显示，第二季度 ETF 净流入放缓，达到 25 亿美元，而第一季度为 121 亿美元。

We can observe net outflows starting early June — that is, when the old issue of Mt. Gox resurfaced, along with the German government:

我们可以观察到从 6 月初开始出现净流出——也就是说，当 Mt. Gox 的老问题与德国政府一起重新浮出水面时：

Net ETF inflows became positive again once the German government sales (50,000 BTC) were completed. Cumulative ETF investments have returned to an all-time high.

德国政府出售（50,000 BTC）完成后，ETF 净流入再次变为正值。 ETF 累计投资已恢复至历史最高水平。

As expected, the distributions in the Mt. Gox bankruptcy case (142,000 BTC) did not tank the market. More than 65% of creditors have now been paid back without observing any massive sales. Around 90,000 BTC still need to be distributed, according to Arkham, which is roughly $6 billion.

正如预期的那样，Mt. Gox 破产案中的分配（142,000 BTC）并没有让市场陷入困境。超过 65% 的债权人现已得到偿还，但并未出现任何大规模出售。据 Arkham 称，仍有约 90,000 BTC 需要分配，约合 60 亿美元。

China, the United States, and Bitcoin

中国、美国和比特币

The outlook is clearing, and the upcoming US presidential election is already a very good sign for bitcoin.

前景正在明朗，即将到来的美国总统大选对比特币来说已经是一个非常好的迹象。

Once skeptical, the former US president has finally changed his stance. The price of bitcoin even increased by nearly 10% following the assassination attempt over the weekend.

一度持怀疑态度的美国前总统终于改变了立场。在周末的暗杀事件发生后，比特币的价格甚至上涨了近 10%。

His speech at the Bitcoin conference in Nashville, which will take place from July 25-27, promises to be explosive!

他在 7 月 25 日至 27 日于纳什维尔举行的比特币会议上的演讲有望成为爆炸性的！

Also of note, his running mate James Vance revealed in 2022 that he held between $100,000 and $250,000 in bitcoins…

另外值得注意的是，他的竞选搭档 James Vance 在 2022 年透露，他持有 10 万至 25 万美元的比特币……

Another reason to be optimistic is that the CEO of BlackRock — the world’s largest investment fund — continues to praise bitcoin.

另一个乐观的理由是，全球最大的投资基金贝莱德的首席执行官继续称赞比特币。

“I did my homework. The opinion I had of bitcoin five years ago was not the right one. I now think that bitcoin is legitimate […]. It is a legitimate financial instrument […]. It is an instrument one invests in when fearful, when their country devalues money due to excessive budget deficits. It allows investing in something outside the control of your government. I firmly believe that bitcoin has a place in a financial portfolio. […] I see bitcoin as digital gold”, he told CNBC.

“我做了我的功课。五年前我对比特币的看法并不正确。我现在认为比特币是合法的[...]。它是一种合法的金融工具[…]。当人们感到恐惧时，当他们的国家因预算赤字过多而导致货币贬值时，它是一种投资工具。它允许投资于政府控制之外的事物。我坚信比特币在金融投资组合中占有一席之地。 […]我将比特币视为数字黄金”，他告诉 CNBC。

All that remains is to convince Xi Jinping of its merits. This will be difficult as long as China refuses to lift its capital controls. Indeed, no one can prevent bitcoin transactions.

剩下的就是让习近平相信其优点。只要中国拒绝取消资本管制，这就会很困难。事实上，没有人可以阻止比特币交易。

We could imagine that the United States might accept bitcoin becoming the international reserve of value if China agrees to open its financial borders. There would then be no reason to maintain the stigma on bitcoin.

我们可以想象，如果中国同意开放其金融边界，美国可能会接受比特币成为国际价值储备。那么就没有理由维持比特币的耻辱。

The authorization of bitcoin-backed ETFs in Hong Kong is an optimistic sign.

比特币支持的 ETF 在香港获批是一个乐观的迹象。

Bitcoin, geopolitical, economic and energy journalist.

比特币、地缘政治、经济和能源记者。