比特幣（BTC）減半活動現在在後視鏡中已經超過一年

至少可以說，從那時起，它的表現就令人難以置信。自2024年4月以來，比特幣上漲了56％

It has now been slightly more than a year since the last Bitcoin (BTC -0.90%) halving took place. Its performance since then has been underwhelming, to say the least.

自從最後一個比特幣（BTC -0.90％）減半以來，現在已經略多了一年。至少可以說，從那時起，它的表現就令人難以置信。

While Bitcoin is up 56% since April 2024, that performance pales in comparison to what happened after three previous halving events. In 2012, 2016, and 2020, Bitcoin posted triple-digit and even quadruple-digit gains, so investors were expecting big things from the 2024 halving.

自2024年4月以來，比特幣上漲了56％，但與以前的三場減半事件發生的情況相比，該表演顯得蒼白。在2012年，2016年和2020年，比特幣發布了三位數甚至四位數的增長，因此投資者期望2024年減半。

What's going on here, and what should you expect from the next halving in 2028?

這裡發生了什麼，您應該從2028年的下一個減半？

Comparison of previous Bitcoin halving cycles

以前比特幣減半週期的比較

Bitcoin halving events take place roughly every four years. They are highly anticipated not just by Bitcoin investors, but by the entire crypto industry. The halving of mining rewards, which refers to an algorithmic process that controls rewards paid out to Bitcoin miners, has historically been the signal for a massive new crypto bull market rally to take place.

比特幣減半活動大約每四年舉行一次。他們不僅受到比特幣投資者的期待，而且是整個加密貨幣行業。從歷史上看，採礦獎勵的一半是指一個算法，該過程控制了支付給比特幣礦工的獎勵，這一直是一個巨大的新加密牛市集會的信號。

One look at the numbers will tell you why investors get excited about the halving cycle. According to data from crypto analytics firm Kaiko, the first Bitcoin halving took place in 2012, and resulted in Bitcoin soaring from a price of $12.35 to $12.35, for a gain of nearly 8,000%. The second Bitcoin halving took place in 2016, and resulted in Bitcoin soaring in price from $663 to $2,500, for a gain of 277%. The third Bitcoin halving took place in 2020, and resulted in Bitcoin skyrocketing from a price of $8,500 to $69,000, for a gain of 762%.

一看數字會告訴您為什麼投資者對減半週期感到興奮。根據Crypto Analytics Kaiko的數據，第一個比特幣減半，並導致比特幣從12.35美元的價格飆升至12.35美元，收益近8,000％。第二個比特幣減半發生在2016年，導致比特幣的價格從663美元到2,500美元，增長了277％。第三個比特幣減半發生在2020年，導致比特幣從8,500美元的價格飆升至69,000美元，收益為762％。

Image source: Getty Images.

圖像來源：蓋蒂圖像。

So you can understand why investors were counting on Bitcoin to soar in value after the April 2024 halving. It seemed like the easiest, no-brainer trade you could possibly make: Buy Bitcoin before the halving event, and then wait for it to rise in price.

因此，您可以理解為什麼投資者指望比特幣在2024年4月減半之後飆升。這似乎是您可能會進行的最簡單，不明智的交易：在減半活動之前購買比特幣，然後等待價格上漲。

Potential factors for underperformance

表現不佳的潛在因素

In hindsight, there are a number of reasons why the 2024 halving turned out to be a relative nothing-burger (like a cheap $2 fast food burger with no toppings and a stale bun).

事後看來，2024年減半的原因有很多。

You could blame macroeconomic factors for Bitcoin's underperformance. You could blame current tariff uncertainty and the threat of a major trade war. You could even blame the launch of the new spot Bitcoin ETFs, which introduced a fundamentally new dynamic in the way people buy and sell Bitcoin.

您可以將比特幣表現不佳的宏觀經濟因素歸咎於宏觀經濟因素。您可以指責當前的關稅不確定性和重大貿易戰的威脅。您甚至可以指責新現場比特幣ETF的推出，該比特幣ETF在人們買賣比特幣的方式上引入了一種新的動態。

Or maybe crypto enthusiasts are simply misinterpreting the historical data. For example, the previous Bitcoin halving took place in May 2020. That coincided with the COVID-19 pandemic, which eventually led to the lowering of interest rates and new stimulus packages. Remember when the U.S. government was mailing out stimulus checks? So maybe it wasn't the halving that resulted in Bitcoin soaring in price in 2020-2021, but Uncle Sam.

也許加密愛好者只是誤解了歷史數據。例如，先前的比特幣減半發生在2020年5月。這與19歲的大流行相吻合，這最終導致了利率降低和新的刺激措施。還記得美國政府郵寄刺激檢查的時間嗎？因此，也許不是減半導致比特幣在2020 - 2021年的價格上漲，而是山姆大叔。

What about the next halving?

下一個減半呢？

The next Bitcoin halving will tentatively take place in March 2028. I don't know the exact date, because Bitcoin is a decentralized digital currency. There is no central planning apparatus to set a date. The halving takes place when another 210,000 blocks have been added to the Bitcoin blockchain by Bitcoin miners, so the final tick of the clock will depend on how quickly the Bitcoin mining community can churn through the next 210,000 data blocks. Online, you can find various crypto firms providing countdown clocks to the next halving, based on estimates of new Bitcoin block creation.

下一個比特幣減半將在2028年3月進行。我不知道確切的日期，因為比特幣是分散的數字貨幣。沒有中央計劃設備來設置日期。當比特幣礦工將另外210,000個區塊添加到比特幣區塊鏈中時，將進行減半，因此時鐘的最終滴答將取決於比特幣礦業社區可以在接下來的210,000個數據塊中流動的速度。在線，您可以根據新的比特幣塊創建的估計找到下一個減半的倒計時時鐘的各種加密公司。

So what will happen after the next Bitcoin halving? My prediction is that most people won't even be talking about the 2028 halving event. By then, the whole global financial system may look entirely different, and a quirky algorithmic change to Bitcoin won't interest many people.

那麼下一個比特幣減半後會發生什麼？我的預測是，大多數人甚至都不會談論2028年的減半活動。到那時，整個全球金融體系看起來可能完全不同，並且對比特幣的古怪算法變化不會讓很多人感興趣。

It's important to point out here that many people misinterpret the Bitcoin halving. They think that it refers to a halving of the overall coin supply, and that's why they think the price of Bitcoin is bound to shoot up after every halving. From this flawed perspective, it's just basic supply and demand: A reduction in supply means the price goes up.

重要的是要在這裡指出許多人誤解了比特幣減半。他們認為這是指整體硬幣供應的一半，這就是為什麼他們認為比特幣的價格在每次減半後都必須射擊。從這個有缺陷的角度來看，這只是基本的供求：供應的降低意味著價格上漲。

However, the Bitcoin halving refers to a halving in the rate of new Bitcoin creation. Guess what? Only 21 million Bitcoins can ever exist. It's hardcoded into the mining algorithm. 19.86 million of them are already in circulation. By 2028, that figure will be approximately 20.5 million.

但是，比特幣減半是指新比特幣創建的速度減半。猜怎麼著？只有2100萬比特幣可以存在。它被硬編碼為採礦算法。其中有1986萬已經流通。到2028年，這個數字將約為2050萬。