比特幣（BTC）隨著VIX的滴滴和加密流動性的激增，閃爍強烈的看漲信號

比特幣（BTC）在宏觀經濟和鏈上閃爍強烈的看漲信號

Bitcoin (BTC) price is flashing strong bullish signals across macroeconomic and on-chain indicators, with analysts predicting a potential breakout to $135,000 within the next 100 days. At the core of this forecast are three key drivers: low market volatility, signaled by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), growing stablecoin liquidity, and a negative BTC funding rate setting up a possible short squeeze.

比特幣（BTC）的價格在宏觀經濟和鏈上指標上閃爍著強烈的看漲信號，分析師預測在接下來的100天內可能會突破至135,000美元。該預測的核心是三個關鍵驅動因素：低市場波動率，由CBOE波動率指數（VIX）發出信號，增長的Stablecoin流動性和負面的BTC融資率負面，設置了可能的短暫擠壓。

VIX drops to 18, setting stage for $135K Bitcoin price

VIX跌至18，以135k比特幣價格設定階段

Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson shared a model on X (formerly Twitter) linking Bitcoin’s price to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). As explained by Peterson, VIX below 18 aligns with “risk-on” sentiment, where investors prefer stocks and capital tends to flow into crypto.

比特幣網絡經濟學家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）在X（以前是Twitter）上分享了一個模型，將比特幣的價格與CBOE波動性指數（VIX）聯繫起來。正如彼得森（Peterson）所解釋的那樣，VIX低於18與“風險”情緒保持一致，投資者更喜歡股票和資本傾向於流入加密貨幣。

According to Peterson, if the VIX stays below 18, his model — which claims a 95% accuracy track record — forecasts a $135,000 Bitcoin price within 100 days. This will be fueled by declining risk aversion and bullish capital flows into crypto assets.

根據彼得森的說法，如果VIX保持在18歲以下，他的模型（聲稱具有95％的準確性記錄）可以預測100天內的135,000美元比特幣價格。這將通過下降的風險規避和看漲資本流入加密資產來推動這一點。

"If the VIX stays below 18 for the next 100 days, we'll likely see new highs in the stock market, capital flowing out of bonds and back into riskier assets like Bitcoin," Peterson stated.

彼得森說：“如果VIX在接下來的100天內保持在18歲以下，我們可能會看到股票市場的新高點，資本從債券中流出並恢復到像比特幣這樣的風險較高的資產中。”

During the last time the VIX dropped below 18 for a 50-day period, in 2021, Bitcoin experienced a rally from $30,000 to $69,000.

在最後一次，VIX在50天的時間內下降了18個以下，在2021年，比特幣經歷了從30,000美元到69,000美元的集會。

However, during periods of equity corrections or contracting liquidity, which usually coincides with a VIX above 18, Bitcoin’s performance becomes less predictable — contrasting with gold’s steadier role as “hard money.”

但是，在股權校正或簽約流動性期間，通常與18歲以上的VIX相吻合，比特幣的績效變得越來越難以預測 - 與黃金作為“硬錢”的穩定作用形成鮮明對比。

"The last time the VIX stayed below 18 for 50 days was during the 2021 bull market, when Bitcoin went 2x from $30K to $69K," Peterson added.

彼得森補充說：“在2021年的牛市市場上，VIX上次停留在18天以下，當時比特幣從3萬美元上漲至6.9萬美元。”

Stablecoin market cap hits all-time high as crypto liquidity surges

隨著加密流動性的激增，Stablecoin市值達到歷史最高

Data from CryptoQuant shows that the total stablecoin market cap has reached $220 billion, marking an all-time high. This is widely seen as a bullish indicator for crypto markets since stablecoins act as dry powder for new purchases.

來自CryptoQuant的數據表明，Stablecoin市值的總上限已達到2200億美元，標誌著歷史最高的高度。這被廣泛視為加密市場的看漲指標，因為Stablecoins充當新購買的干粉。

The increase in liquidity supports the bullish case for Bitcoin, signaling capital inflows into the broader crypto ecosystem.

流動性的增加支持比特幣的看漲案例，這表明資本流入了更廣泛的加密生態系統。

"The chart shows that we're currently at the highest point in history for stablecoin market cap," the crypto analytics firm stated.

加密分析公司說：“該圖表顯示，我們目前處於Stablecoin市值的歷史上最高點。”

According to Ben REichert, a derivatives trader at FTX, the last time we saw such a rapid increase in stablecoin supply was during the 2021 bull market, which ultimately led to Bitcoin’s previous all-time high of $70,000.

根據FTX的衍生品交易員本·雷希特（Ben Reichert）的說法，我們上次看到Stablecoin供應量如此之快的是在2021年的牛市中，這最終導致了比特幣以前的70,000美元的歷史最高點。

"The last time we saw this much stablecoin supply flow into exchanges was during the 2021 bull market, which ultimately led to Bitcoin's all-time high of $70,000," Reichert explained.

Reichert解釋說：“我們上次看到這一穩定的供應流量進入交流是在2021年的牛市期間，最終導致了比特幣的歷史最高點70,000美元。”

However, it’s important to note that while this signals a potential build-up of buying pressure, the actual price movements of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will depend on a variety of other factors, including market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory developments.

但是，重要的是要注意，儘管這表明了購買壓力的潛在增加，但比特幣和其他加密貨幣的實際價格變動將取決於其他各種因素，包括市場情緒，宏觀經濟狀況和監管發展。

BTC funding rate hits record lows as short positions increase

隨著短職位的增加，BTC資金率達到記錄低點

In a significant development, Bitcoin (BTC) perpetual futures funding rates have flipped negative, reaching their lowest point in 2025. This suggests that short positions now dominate, as traders are increasingly betting against the rally.

在重大的發​​展中，比特幣（BTC）永久期貨融資率已經傾斜了，在2025年達到了其最低點。這表明現在短暫的頭寸占主導地位，因為交易者越來越多地押注集會。

As shown in Velo.chart’s 4-hour BTC funding data, this imbalance creates conditions for a short squeeze, where rising prices force short sellers to cover positions — accelerating upside moves.

如Velo.Chart的4小時BTC資金數據所示，這種不平衡為短暫的擠壓帶來了條件，在這種情況下，價格上漲迫使短賣方覆蓋頭寸 - 加速上升方向。

According to reports from Cointelegraph, over $3 billion in short positions are at risk of liquidation, potentially driving Bitcoin past $100,000 in the near term.

根據CoIntelegraph的報導，超過30億美元的短職位面臨著清算的風險，可能會在短期內駕駛比特幣超過100,000美元。