比特币（BTC）随着VIX的滴滴和加密流动性的激增，闪烁强烈的看涨信号

比特币（BTC）在宏观经济和链上闪烁强烈的看涨信号

Bitcoin (BTC) price is flashing strong bullish signals across macroeconomic and on-chain indicators, with analysts predicting a potential breakout to $135,000 within the next 100 days. At the core of this forecast are three key drivers: low market volatility, signaled by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), growing stablecoin liquidity, and a negative BTC funding rate setting up a possible short squeeze.

比特币（BTC）的价格在宏观经济和链上指标上闪烁着强烈的看涨信号，分析师预测在接下来的100天内可能会突破至135,000美元。该预测的核心是三个关键驱动因素：低市场波动率，由CBOE波动率指数（VIX）发出信号，增长的Stablecoin流动性和负面的BTC融资率负面，设置了可能的短暂挤压。

VIX drops to 18, setting stage for $135K Bitcoin price

VIX跌至18，以135k比特币价格设定阶段

Bitcoin network economist Timothy Peterson shared a model on X (formerly Twitter) linking Bitcoin’s price to the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX). As explained by Peterson, VIX below 18 aligns with “risk-on” sentiment, where investors prefer stocks and capital tends to flow into crypto.

比特币网络经济学家蒂莫西·彼得森（Timothy Peterson）在X（以前是Twitter）上分享了一个模型，将比特币的价格与CBOE波动性指数（VIX）联系起来。正如彼得森（Peterson）所解释的那样，VIX低于18与“风险”情绪保持一致，投资者更喜欢股票和资本倾向于流入加密货币。

According to Peterson, if the VIX stays below 18, his model — which claims a 95% accuracy track record — forecasts a $135,000 Bitcoin price within 100 days. This will be fueled by declining risk aversion and bullish capital flows into crypto assets.

根据彼得森的说法，如果VIX保持在18岁以下，他的模型（声称具有95％的准确性记录）可以预测100天内的135,000美元比特币价格。这将通过下降的风险规避和看涨资本流入加密资产来推动这一点。

"If the VIX stays below 18 for the next 100 days, we'll likely see new highs in the stock market, capital flowing out of bonds and back into riskier assets like Bitcoin," Peterson stated.

彼得森说：“如果VIX在接下来的100天内保持在18岁以下，我们可能会看到股票市场的新高点，资本从债券中流出并恢复到像比特币这样的风险较高的资产中。”

During the last time the VIX dropped below 18 for a 50-day period, in 2021, Bitcoin experienced a rally from $30,000 to $69,000.

在最后一次，VIX在50天的时间内下降了18个以下，在2021年，比特币经历了从30,000美元到69,000美元的集会。

However, during periods of equity corrections or contracting liquidity, which usually coincides with a VIX above 18, Bitcoin’s performance becomes less predictable — contrasting with gold’s steadier role as “hard money.”

但是，在股权校正或签约流动性期间，通常与18岁以上的VIX相吻合，比特币的绩效变得越来越难以预测 - 与黄金作为“硬钱”的稳定作用形成鲜明对比。

"The last time the VIX stayed below 18 for 50 days was during the 2021 bull market, when Bitcoin went 2x from $30K to $69K," Peterson added.

彼得森补充说：“在2021年的牛市市场上，VIX上次停留在18天以下，当时比特币从3万美元上涨至6.9万美元。”

Stablecoin market cap hits all-time high as crypto liquidity surges

随着加密流动性的激增，Stablecoin市值达到历史最高

Data from CryptoQuant shows that the total stablecoin market cap has reached $220 billion, marking an all-time high. This is widely seen as a bullish indicator for crypto markets since stablecoins act as dry powder for new purchases.

来自CryptoQuant的数据表明，Stablecoin市值的总上限已达到2200亿美元，标志着历史最高水平。这被广泛视为加密市场的看涨指标，因为Stablecoins充当新购买的干粉。

The increase in liquidity supports the bullish case for Bitcoin, signaling capital inflows into the broader crypto ecosystem.

流动性的增加支持比特币的看涨案例，这表明资本流入了更广泛的加密生态系统。

"The chart shows that we're currently at the highest point in history for stablecoin market cap," the crypto analytics firm stated.

加密分析公司说：“该图表显示，我们目前处于Stablecoin市值的历史上最高点。”

According to Ben REichert, a derivatives trader at FTX, the last time we saw such a rapid increase in stablecoin supply was during the 2021 bull market, which ultimately led to Bitcoin’s previous all-time high of $70,000.

根据FTX的衍生品交易员本·雷希特（Ben Reichert）的说法，我们上次看到Stablecoin供应量如此之快的是在2021年的牛市中，这最终导致了比特币以前的70,000美元的历史最高点。

"The last time we saw this much stablecoin supply flow into exchanges was during the 2021 bull market, which ultimately led to Bitcoin's all-time high of $70,000," Reichert explained.

Reichert解释说：“我们上次看到这一稳定的供应流量进入交流是在2021年的牛市期间，最终导致了比特币的历史最高点70,000美元。”

However, it’s important to note that while this signals a potential build-up of buying pressure, the actual price movements of Bitcoin and other cryptocurrencies will depend on a variety of other factors, including market sentiment, macroeconomic conditions, and regulatory developments.

但是，重要的是要注意，尽管这表明了购买压力的潜在增加，但比特币和其他加密货币的实际价格变动将取决于其他各种因素，包括市场情绪，宏观经济状况和监管发展。

BTC funding rate hits record lows as short positions increase

随着短职位的增加，BTC资金率达到记录低点

In a significant development, Bitcoin (BTC) perpetual futures funding rates have flipped negative, reaching their lowest point in 2025. This suggests that short positions now dominate, as traders are increasingly betting against the rally.

在重大的发​​展中，比特币（BTC）永久期货融资率已经倾斜了，在2025年达到了其最低点。这表明现在短暂的头寸占主导地位，因为交易者越来越多地押注集会。

As shown in Velo.chart’s 4-hour BTC funding data, this imbalance creates conditions for a short squeeze, where rising prices force short sellers to cover positions — accelerating upside moves.

如Velo.Chart的4小时BTC资金数据所示，这种不平衡为短暂的挤压带来了条件，在这种情况下，价格上涨迫使短卖方覆盖头寸 - 加速上升方向。

According to reports from Cointelegraph, over $3 billion in short positions are at risk of liquidation, potentially driving Bitcoin past $100,000 in the near term.

根据CoIntelegraph的报道，超过30亿美元的短职位面临着清算的风险，可能会在短期内驾驶比特币超过100,000美元。