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加密衍生品市場的投資者正在準備更高的波動性,因為Deribit上的大量比特幣($ btc)和以太坊($ eth)期權將在今天到期。
Investors in the crypto derivatives market are bracing for heightened volatility as a huge batch of Bitcoin (BTC) and Ethereum (ETH) options on Deribit will expire today.
加密衍生品市場的投資者正在努力提高波動性,因為Deribit上的大量比特幣(BTC)和以太坊(ETH)期權將在今天到期。
In total, there is more than $3.18 billion in BTC and ETH options set to expire, and traders are zeroing in on specific levels where the expiry could have the biggest impact. Since the put/call ratios show a mixed picture of the market's opinion, there is potential for the expiry to drive changes in both asset prices. Here are some points to watch out for as the day progresses.
總共有超過31.8億美元的BTC,ETH期權將到期,交易者正在以特定級別為零,而到期可能會產生最大影響。由於觀點/呼叫率顯示了市場意見的混雜圖,因此有可能導致兩種資產價格的變化。隨著一天的進行,這裡有一些要注意的要點。
Breaking Down the $3.1 Billion Expiry
分解31億美元的到期
According to crypto analyst Kyle Doops, a large notional amount of Bitcoin and Ethereum options are set to mature at 04:00 ET on Deribit, the leading crypto options exchange. This event includes:
根據加密分析師Kyle Doops的說法,大量概念量的比特幣和以太坊選項將在Deribit上的04:00 ET成熟,這是領先的加密貨幣選項交換。此事件包括:
BTC: 2.66 billion in notional amount and a put/call ratio 0.99. Most options contracts will expire out of the money at the max pain point of $100,000 currently.
BTC:26.6億個名義金額和put/呼叫比率為0.99。目前,大多數選項合同將以100,000美元的最高痛點從貨幣中退貨。
ETH: This means a notional value of $525 million and a put/call ratio of 1.24. The price needed to break through max pain is currently at $2,200.
ETH:這意味著名義價值為5.25億美元,看高比為1.24。突破最大痛苦所需的價格目前為2,200美元。
The number of put and call options traded gives an indication of how the market feels. If the ratio is around 1.0, like in BTC, it means that traders are largely evenly divided between being bullish and bearish. However, Ethereum shows a higher 1.24 put-to-call ratio, which means that put options are favored over calls.
交易的看漲期權的數量表明了市場的感受。如果該比率約為1.0,就像在BTC中一樣,則意味著交易者在看漲和看跌之間均勻分配。但是,以太坊顯示出較高的1.24個比率比例,這意味著將選項比呼叫相比受到偏愛。
For traders and institutions, identifying “max pain” matters a lot. This is the strike price where most options begin to lose value. Market makers often look at it as an indication of where they might prefer prices to move before the contract expires. A large number of positions being closed around these areas may lead to significant changes in prices.
對於貿易商和機構而言,確定“最大痛苦”非常重要。這是大多數選項開始失去價值的打擊價格。做市商經常將其視為他們可能希望在合同到期之前更喜歡價格上漲的何處。在這些地區周圍關閉大量職位可能會導致價格發生重大變化。
BTC Appears Balanced as ETH Bears Take Slight Control
BTC顯得平衡,因為Eth Bears略有控制
Right now, Bitcoin looks fairly well-balanced. It suggests that the market expects roughly the same number of traders to buy and sell. Since the max pain level is far out of the money, most of the bullish call options will likely lose their value if the price will not manage to move up quickly.
目前,比特幣看起來相當均勻。這表明市場期望大致相同的交易者買賣。由於最大疼痛水平遠遠超出了錢,因此,如果價格無法迅速上升,大多數看漲的電話選項可能會失去其價值。
On the other hand, Ethereum is leaning slightly toward the bearish end. Since the put/call ratio is 1.24, the figure suggests that traders are more interested in seeing prices fall than rise. The $2,200 price is nearly the same as ETH’s current trading level, so traders should pay attention to it as the expiry day arrives.
另一方面,以太坊略微傾向於看跌端。由於觀點/呼叫比率為1.24,因此該數字表明,交易者對看到價格下跌比上漲更感興趣。 2,200美元的價格與ETH當前的交易水平幾乎相同,因此交易者應在到期日到來時注意它。
If major interest levels are passed or traders wind down their positions, this could cause rapid changes in spot prices. Traders should expect to see more volatility immediately before and after the expiry period.
如果通過主要的利息水平或交易者降低其頭寸,這可能會導致現貨價格的快速變化。交易者應該期望在到期期間之前和之後看到更多的波動性。
Understanding Market Volatility and the Tactics Traders Should Use
了解市場波動和策略交易者應使用
In periods like today, when open interest is high, expiries can spur sudden changes in price. Since so many dollars are at stake, institutions may try to influence prices in their favor. As a result, there could be surprises, swinging price shifts, or temporary market interference.
在像今天這樣的時期,當開放興趣很高時,到期可能會刺激價格突然變化。由於這麼多美元受到威脅,因此機構可能會試圖影響價格。結果,可能會出現驚喜,價格轉移或臨時市場干擾。
For traders who are trading over this period, it is good practice to be mindful of leverage and use tight stop losses. Traders can also check analytics platforms and options flow aggregators regularly to ensure they are aware of any emerging trends.
對於在此期間進行交易的交易者來說,要注意槓桿並使用嚴重的停止損失是一個好習慣。交易者還可以定期檢查分析平台和期權流聚合器,以確保他們了解任何新興趨勢。
When an investor has a long-term outlook, these expiries generally make little difference. However, based on the broader market’s performance, these spots can be a good entry or exit point.
當投資者俱有長期前景時,這些有效期通常不會有所作為。但是,基於更廣泛的市場表現,這些景點可能是一個很好的入口或出口。
The big crypto market moves on Tuesday are going to be especially important for people trading Bitcoin and Ethereum. Because billions in functionality are set to expire, the market mood, trend, and participants’ actions could change rapidly. Paying attention and keeping a strong discipline level can help you through any upcoming market ups and downs.
對於交易比特幣和以太坊的人來說,週二的大加密市場舉動將特別重要。由於數十億功能將到期,因此市場情緒,趨勢和參與者的行動可能會迅速變化。關注並保持強大的紀律水平可以幫助您度過任何即將到來的市場上下風度。
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