比特幣一月慘淡，連續四個月下跌

比特幣面臨自 2022 年以來最糟糕的 1 月份，標誌著連續四個月的下跌。地緣政治緊張局勢和美聯儲的強硬猜測導致了經濟低迷。

Bitcoin's Longest Monthly Slide Since 2018

比特幣自 2018 年以來最長月度下滑

Bitcoin is enduring a rough start to 2026, with the digital asset experiencing its worst January performance since 2022. Data indicates that unless a significant weekend rally occurs, Bitcoin is poised to close its fourth consecutive month in negative territory. This extended losing streak is the longest the cryptocurrency has seen since 2018, a period marked by the collapse of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) that sent the broader market into a tailspin.

比特幣在 2026 年經歷了一個艱難的開局，該數字資產經歷了自 2022 年以來最糟糕的 1 月份表現。數據表明，除非週末出現大幅反彈，否則比特幣將連續第四個月收於負值。這次連續下跌是加密貨幣自 2018 年以來最長的一次，2018 年首次代幣發行 (ICO) 崩潰，導致大盤陷入混亂。

Geopolitical Fears and Fed Speculation Dampen Spirits

地緣政治擔憂和美聯儲投機澆滅了士氣

Industry experts point to a confluence of factors contributing to Bitcoin's current slump. Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, highlighted heightened risk aversion stemming from escalating geopolitical crises. Investors are reportedly favoring traditional safe-haven assets over the typically volatile digital currency. "This shift reflects broader market behavior where bitcoin and other risk assets are treated more like high-beta plays tied to risk appetite, while real assets outperform during periods of stress," Chen explained. Adding to the uncertainty, the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve has revived concerns about a more hawkish monetary policy, potentially sapping demand for speculative assets like Bitcoin.

行業專家指出，多種因素共同導致了比特幣當前的暴跌。 Bitget首席執行官Gracy Chen強調，地緣政治危機升級導致避險情緒加劇。據報導，與通常波動較大的數字貨幣相比，投資者更青睞傳統的避險資產。 “這種轉變反映了更廣泛的市場行為，即比特幣和其他風險資產被視為與風險偏好相關的高貝塔資產，而實物資產在壓力時期表現優於其他資產，”陳解釋道。凱文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)被提名領導美聯儲，這再次引發了人們對更加加強硬的貨幣政策的擔憂，這可能會削弱對比特幣等投機資產的需求，這加劇了不確定性。

ETF Outflows and Liquidations Signal Caution

ETF 資金流出和清算發出警告信號

The downturn is further evidenced by significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, which saw an exodus of $817.87 million on Thursday alone, bringing the weekly total to nearly $978 million. Crypto liquidations have also surged, reaching $1.8 billion in the past 24 hours, with a substantial portion, $792.78 million, affecting Bitcoin. Notably, the majority of these liquidations were from long positions, indicating a strong bearish sentiment among traders.

比特幣 ETF 的大量資金流出進一步證明了這種低迷，僅週四就流出了 8.1787 億美元，使每週總資金流出接近 9.78 億美元。加密貨幣清算量也激增，在過去 24 小時內達到 18 億美元，其中很大一部分（7.9278 億美元）影響了比特幣。值得注意的是，這些清算大部分來自多頭頭寸，表明交易者存在強烈的看跌情緒。

Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment

技術指標和市場情緒

While short-term indicators show some retail buying emerging around the $84,000 mark, forming a tentative base, larger passive demand is observed in the $75,000-$81,000 range. However, analysts are cautious, awaiting confirmation of these bids. Technically, Bitcoin's four-hour chart shows a symmetrical triangle, suggesting a decisive move is imminent within 24-48 hours, though the direction remains uncertain. Near-term indicators like the RSI below its SMA and the MACD line under its signal line suggest bears still hold an edge, although the narrowing gap hints at fading bearish momentum.

雖然短期指標顯示一些散戶買盤在 84,000 美元大關附近出現，形成了初步基礎，但在 75,000 美元至 81,000 美元範圍內觀察到更大的被動需求。然而，分析師持謹慎態度，等待這些出價的確認。從技術上講，比特幣的四小時圖顯示出一個對稱三角形，表明決定性的走勢即將在 24-48 小時內出現，但方向仍不確定。近期指標，如 RSI 低於 SMA 和 MACD 線低於信號線，表明空頭仍佔據優勢，儘管差距縮小暗示看跌勢頭正在消退。

A Glimmer of Hope?

一線希望？

Despite the current gloomy outlook, the crypto market, much like a stubborn New Yorker navigating a winter chill, always has the potential for an unexpected thaw. While the consecutive monthly losses are a tough pill to swallow, the resilience shown in previous downturns suggests that the digital gold might just be taking a breather before its next ascent. For now, it’s a waiting game, but history has taught us that in the world of Bitcoin, the only constant is change – and perhaps, the occasional comeback story.

儘管目前前景黯淡，但加密貨幣市場就像頑固的紐約人在冬季寒冷中航行一樣，總是有可能出現意想不到的解凍。雖然連續每月的下跌是一粒難以下嚥的藥丸，但在之前的低迷時期所表現出的韌性表明，數字黃金在下一次上漲之前可能只是喘口氣。目前，這是一場等待的遊戲，但歷史告訴我們，在比特幣的世界裡，唯一不變的就是變化——也許還有偶爾的捲土重來的故事。