比特币一月惨淡，连续四个月下跌

比特币面临自 2022 年以来最糟糕的 1 月份，标志着连续四个月的下跌。地缘政治紧张局势和美联储的强硬猜测导致了经济低迷。

Bitcoin's Longest Monthly Slide Since 2018

比特币自 2018 年以来最长月度下滑

Bitcoin is enduring a rough start to 2026, with the digital asset experiencing its worst January performance since 2022. Data indicates that unless a significant weekend rally occurs, Bitcoin is poised to close its fourth consecutive month in negative territory. This extended losing streak is the longest the cryptocurrency has seen since 2018, a period marked by the collapse of Initial Coin Offerings (ICOs) that sent the broader market into a tailspin.

比特币在 2026 年经历了一个艰难的开局，该数字资产经历了自 2022 年以来最糟糕的 1 月份表现。数据表明，除非周末出现大幅反弹，否则比特币将连续第四个月收于负值。这次连续下跌是加密货币自 2018 年以来最长的一次，2018 年首次代币发行 (ICO) 崩溃，导致大盘陷入混乱。

Geopolitical Fears and Fed Speculation Dampen Spirits

地缘政治担忧和美联储投机浇灭了士气

Industry experts point to a confluence of factors contributing to Bitcoin's current slump. Gracy Chen, CEO of Bitget, highlighted heightened risk aversion stemming from escalating geopolitical crises. Investors are reportedly favoring traditional safe-haven assets over the typically volatile digital currency. "This shift reflects broader market behavior where bitcoin and other risk assets are treated more like high-beta plays tied to risk appetite, while real assets outperform during periods of stress," Chen explained. Adding to the uncertainty, the nomination of Kevin Warsh to lead the Federal Reserve has revived concerns about a more hawkish monetary policy, potentially sapping demand for speculative assets like Bitcoin.

行业专家指出，多种因素共同导致了比特币当前的暴跌。 Bitget首席执行官Gracy Chen强调，地缘政治危机升级导致避险情绪加剧。据报道，与通常波动较大的数字货币相比，投资者更青睐传统的避险资产。 “这种转变反映了更广泛的市场行为，即比特币和其他风险资产被视为与风险偏好相关的高贝塔资产，而实物资产在压力时期表现优于其他资产，”陈解释道。凯文·沃什(Kevin Warsh)被提名领导美联储，这再次引发了人们对更加加强硬的货币政策的担忧，这可能会削弱对比特币等投机资产的需求，这加剧了不确定性。

ETF Outflows and Liquidations Signal Caution

ETF 资金流出和清算发出警告信号

The downturn is further evidenced by significant outflows from Bitcoin ETFs, which saw an exodus of $817.87 million on Thursday alone, bringing the weekly total to nearly $978 million. Crypto liquidations have also surged, reaching $1.8 billion in the past 24 hours, with a substantial portion, $792.78 million, affecting Bitcoin. Notably, the majority of these liquidations were from long positions, indicating a strong bearish sentiment among traders.

比特币 ETF 的大量资金流出进一步证明了这种低迷，仅周四就流出了 8.1787 亿美元，使每周总资金流出接近 9.78 亿美元。加密货币清算量也激增，在过去 24 小时内达到 18 亿美元，其中很大一部分（7.9278 亿美元）影响了比特币。值得注意的是，这些清算大部分来自多头头寸，表明交易者存在强烈的看跌情绪。

Technical Indicators and Market Sentiment

技术指标和市场情绪

While short-term indicators show some retail buying emerging around the $84,000 mark, forming a tentative base, larger passive demand is observed in the $75,000-$81,000 range. However, analysts are cautious, awaiting confirmation of these bids. Technically, Bitcoin's four-hour chart shows a symmetrical triangle, suggesting a decisive move is imminent within 24-48 hours, though the direction remains uncertain. Near-term indicators like the RSI below its SMA and the MACD line under its signal line suggest bears still hold an edge, although the narrowing gap hints at fading bearish momentum.

虽然短期指标显示一些散户买盘在 84,000 美元大关附近出现，形成了初步基础，但在 75,000 美元至 81,000 美元范围内观察到更大的被动需求。然而，分析师持谨慎态度，等待这些出价的确认。从技术上讲，比特币的四小时图显示出一个对称三角形，表明决定性的走势即将在 24-48 小时内出现，但方向仍不确定。近期指标，如 RSI 低于 SMA 和 MACD 线低于信号线，表明空头仍占据优势，尽管差距缩小暗示看跌势头正在消退。

A Glimmer of Hope?

一线希望？

Despite the current gloomy outlook, the crypto market, much like a stubborn New Yorker navigating a winter chill, always has the potential for an unexpected thaw. While the consecutive monthly losses are a tough pill to swallow, the resilience shown in previous downturns suggests that the digital gold might just be taking a breather before its next ascent. For now, it’s a waiting game, but history has taught us that in the world of Bitcoin, the only constant is change – and perhaps, the occasional comeback story.

尽管目前前景黯淡，但加密货币市场就像顽固的纽约人在冬季寒冷中航行一样，总是有可能出现意想不到的解冻。虽然连续每月的下跌是一粒难以下咽的药丸，但在之前的低迷时期所表现出的韧性表明，数字黄金在下一次上涨之前可能只是喘口气。目前，这是一场等待的游戏，但历史告诉我们，在比特币的世界里，唯一不变的就是变化——也许还有偶尔的卷土重来的故事。