聯準會降息之際比特幣試圖將 62,000 美元作為新的支撐位

BTC/美元 4 小時圖。來源：TradingView

Bitcoin (BTC) price surged to three-week highs on Sept. 19 as the United States Federal Reserve implemented a major rate cut.

9 月 19 日，隨著聯準會大幅降息，比特幣 (BTC) 價格飆升至三週高點。

BTC/USD 4-hour chart. Source: TradingView

BTC/美元 4 小時圖。來源：TradingView

BTC price three-week highs as Fed begins cutting rates

聯準會開始降息，比特幣價格創三週高點

Fresh from the U.S. Federal Reserve’s decision to cut interest rates by 0.5%, Bitcoin aimed to recapture the $62,000 support level on Sept. 19.

在聯準會決定降息 0.5% 後，比特幣目標是在 9 月 19 日重新奪回 62,000 美元的支撐位。

According to Cointelegraph Markets Pro and TradingView, BTC/USD rose to local highs of $62,600 during the Asia trading session. The move came shortly after the Fed action, which marked only the third time in history that a rate-cutting cycle began with such a substantial reduction.

根據 Cointelegraph Markets Pro 和 TradingView 的數據，比特幣兌美元在亞洲交易時段升至 62,600 美元的局部高點。此舉是在聯準會採取行動後不久採取的，這標誌著歷史上第三次降息週期以如此大幅的降息開始。

Short positions liquidated

空頭部位被清算

Data from monitoring resource CoinGlass showed that the bullish run liquidated short BTC positions across various exchange order books to the tune of $128 million in the 24 hours leading up to the time of writing.

監控資源 CoinGlass 的數據顯示，在截至本文撰寫之時的 24 小時內，看漲行情平倉了各種交易所訂單簿中的 BTC 空頭頭寸，金額達 1.28 億美元。

“Now we need to reduce leverage or take profits,” advised analysts on X, cautioning investors not to “get carried away.”

X 分析師建議：“現在我們需要降低槓桿或獲利了結”，並警告投資者不要“得意忘形”。

BTC liquidation heatmap (screenshot). Source: CoinGlass

BTC 清算熱圖（截圖）。來源：CoinGlass

Bullish prediction: Aiming for $64,000

看漲預測：目標為 64,000 美元

Earlier predictions had suggested that Bitcoin could reach $64,000 following a 0.5% rate cut, but resistance at higher levels remained.

早些時候的預測表明，降息 0.5% 後，比特幣可能會達到 64,000 美元，但更高的阻力仍然存在。

“Bitcoin slowly eating its way through the resistance level,” noted trader Jelle on X in his latest BTC analysis.

X 交易員 Jelle 在其最新的 BTC 分析中指出：“比特幣正在慢慢突破阻力位。”

“Above $62,500, things will look a lot more constructive, and stops above $65,000 won’t be safe anymore. Going to be an interesting end to September.”

「高於 62,500 美元，事情看起來會更有建設性，而止損於 65,000 美元以上將不再安全。九月將會是一個有趣的結局。

US dollar shows volatility

美元呈現波動性

The U.S. Dollar Index (DXY) saw significant fluctuations, initially rising before falling back to previous support levels.

美元指數（DXY）出現大幅波動，最初上漲，然後回落至先前的支撐位。

“Sitting at the edge of support. Breakdown can result in a sharp move towards 96,” commented trader Aksel Kibar in his latest DXY analysis on X.

「坐在支持的邊緣。下跌可能會導致價格急劇上漲至 96，」交易員 Aksel Kibar 在其最新的 X 指數 DXY 分析中評論道。

Yen rate decision in focus

日圓匯率決定成為焦點

For Arthur Hayes, former CEO of crypto exchange BitMEX, attention now shifts to the Bank of Japan’s rate decision, which is expected on Sept. 20. The strength of the yen could potentially influence BTC price movements.

對於加密貨幣交易所 BitMEX 前執行長 Arthur Hayes 來說，注意力現在轉向日本央行的利率決定，預計將於 9 月 20 日做出。

“Something doesn’t add up”

“有些東西不合時宜”

Despite the Fed’s aggressive rate cuts, trading resource The Kobeissi Letter warned traders to remain cautious.

儘管聯準會大幅降息，但交易資源《Kobeissi Letter》警告交易者保持謹慎。

Historical precedents indicate that such significant rate cuts often come before poor performance in U.S. equities.

歷史先例表明，如此大幅降息往往發生在美國股市表現不佳之前。

“In 2001, the market fell 31% after 2 years and in 2007 the market fell 26% after 2 years. These were major crises,” an X thread pointed out.

「2001年，市場在2年後下跌了31%，2007年市場在2年後下跌了26%。這些都是重大危機，」X 帖子指出。

Related: Markets see 0.5% Fed rate cut — 5 Things to know in Bitcoin this week

相關：市場預計聯準會降息 0.5%——本週比特幣需要了解的 5 件事

Contrast between Fed’s messaging and actions

聯準會的訊息和行動之間的對比

Kobeissi found a contradiction in the Fed’s optimistic messaging and the scale of its rate cut, questioning why the central bank would begin with a 50-basis point reduction if the economy were strong.

柯比西發現聯準會的樂觀訊息和降息規模之間存在矛盾，他質疑如果經濟強勁，聯準會為何開始降息50個基點。

“If the Fed has only started with 50 basis point rate cuts during crises, why start with 50 bps this time?”

“如果聯準會在危機期間才開始降息 50 個基點，那為什麼這次要從 50 個基點開始呢？”

Fed target rate probabilities. Source: CME Group

聯準會目標利率機率。資料來源：芝商所

FedWatch Tool: Future rate cuts seen as 25 bps

FedWatch工具：未來降息預計為25個基點

Data from CME Group’s FedWatch Tool showed that the likelihood of another 0.5% cut was slimmer compared to a 0.25% reduction at the next Fed meeting, which is scheduled for Nov. 7.

芝加哥商品交易所集團 FedWatch 工具的數據顯示，與定於 11 月 7 日舉行的下一次聯準會會議降息 0.25% 相比，再次降息 0.5% 的可能性較小。

This article does not contain investment advice or recommendations. Every investment and trading move carries a risk, and readers should conduct their own research when making a decision.

本文不包含投資建議或建議。每一項投資和交易行為都存在風險，讀者在做決定時應自行研究。