比特幣九月可能看漲

隨著 2024 年 9 月的開始，投資者們都感到緊張，想知道比特幣是否會在本月擺脫歷史疲軟的表現。

As the dust settles on a bearish August, investors are eagerly anticipating Bitcoin's performance in September, a month that has historically posed challenges for the leading cryptocurrency.

隨著看跌的 8 月塵埃落定，投資人熱切期待比特幣 9 月的表現，這個月份歷來給領先的加密貨幣帶來了挑戰。

While Bitcoin closed August with an 8.6% loss, largely driven by a sharp sell-off early in the month, it faces further obstacles in September. Historically, the largest cryptocurrency has recorded losses in six of the past seven Septembers, averaging a 4.5% decline.

雖然比特幣 8 月收盤下跌 8.6%，主要是由於本月初的大幅拋售，但它在 9 月面臨進一步的障礙。從歷史上看，這最大的加密貨幣在過去 7 個 9 月中有 6 個月份錄得虧損，平均下跌 4.5%。

Should this trend hold, Bitcoin could experience a price drop to around $55,000 this month. However, strong support around the $54,000 level, which served as a critical bounce point in July before Bitcoin surged toward $70,000, could prevent steeper declines and set the stage for a price recovery.

如果這種趨勢持續下去，比特幣本月價格可能會跌至 55,000 美元左右。然而，54,000 美元水平附近的強大支撐位（7 月比特幣飆升至 70,000 美元之前的關鍵反彈點）可能會阻止更大幅度的下跌，並為價格復甦奠定基礎。

Despite the overall bearish seasonality, there are signs of structural bullishness in the medium term, according to QCP. This optimism is evident in market activities, such as the rolling out of long Call options for both Bitcoin and Ethereum until March.

QCP 表示，儘管整體季節性看跌，但中期仍存在結構性看漲跡象。這種樂觀情緒在市場活動中顯而易見，例如在三月之前推出比特幣和以太坊的多頭買權。

Notably, a large number of BTC Call options, set to expire in March 2025, were recently purchased, indicating that some investors are positioning themselves for significant price increases in the coming months.

值得注意的是，近期購買了大量將於 2025 年 3 月到期的 BTC 買權，這表明一些投資者正在為未來幾個月的價格大幅上漲做好準備。

However, it is important to note the macroeconomic environment and how economic data releases slated for this month, such as the Unemployment Claims and Non-Farm Payroll reports, could still influence cryptocurrency prices, despite their diminishing impact over recent times.

然而，重要的是要注意宏觀經濟環境以及本月發布的經濟數據（例如失業救濟申請和非農業就業報告）仍然可能影響加密貨幣價格，儘管它們的影響最近有所減弱。

Furthermore, on-chain data provides further evidence that September might not be as bearish as usual. The WaveNet deep learning model, which has accurately predicted Bitcoin's price movements in the past, forecasts a potential price bounce this month.

此外，鏈上數據進一步證明 9 月可能不會像往常一樣悲觀。 WaveNet 深度學習模型過去曾準確預測比特幣的價格走勢，並預測本月價格可能反彈。

The model assigns a 50% probability that Bitcoin will surpass the $65,000 mark in September, defying the typical seasonal weakness.

該模型預測比特幣在 9 月突破 65,000 美元大關的機率為 50%，克服了典型的季節性疲軟現象。

This potential bullish reversal is also supported by reduced selling pressures, as reported earlier by The Crypto Basic. While Bitcoin faced significant downward pressure due to large-scale selloffs earlier this year, including the German government's sale of nearly 50,000 BTC, these sales are now largely complete.

正如 The Crypto Basic 早些時候報導的那樣，這種潛在的看漲逆轉也得到了拋售壓力減少的支持。儘管由於今年稍早的大規模拋售，包括德國政府出售了近 50,000 枚 BTC，比特幣面臨著巨大的下行壓力，但這些出售目前已基本完成。

Moreover, long-term holders have increased their supply by 262,000 BTC in the past month. Interestingly, when August ended on a bearish note, only four of the last seven Septembers continued the downward trend. In the other three years, Bitcoin reversed course and posted positive returns.

此外，長期持有者在過去一個月增加了 262,000 BTC 的供應量。有趣的是，當八月以看跌結束時，過去七個九月中只有四個延續了下降趨勢。在另外三年裡，比特幣扭轉了頹勢並實現了正回報。