比特币九月可能会看涨

随着 2024 年 9 月的开始，投资者们都感到紧张，想知道比特币是否会在本月摆脱历史疲软的表现。

As the dust settles on a bearish August, investors are eagerly anticipating Bitcoin's performance in September, a month that has historically posed challenges for the leading cryptocurrency.

随着看跌的 8 月份尘埃落定，投资者热切期待比特币 9 月份的表现，这个月份历来给领先的加密货币带来了挑战。

While Bitcoin closed August with an 8.6% loss, largely driven by a sharp sell-off early in the month, it faces further obstacles in September. Historically, the largest cryptocurrency has recorded losses in six of the past seven Septembers, averaging a 4.5% decline.

虽然比特币 8 月份收盘下跌 8.6%，主要是由于本月初的大幅抛售，但它在 9 月份面临着进一步的障碍。从历史上看，这一最大的加密货币在过去 7 个 9 月中有 6 个月份录得亏损，平均下跌 4.5%。

Should this trend hold, Bitcoin could experience a price drop to around $55,000 this month. However, strong support around the $54,000 level, which served as a critical bounce point in July before Bitcoin surged toward $70,000, could prevent steeper declines and set the stage for a price recovery.

如果这种趋势持续下去，比特币本月价格可能会跌至 55,000 美元左右。然而，54,000 美元水平附近的强大支撑位（7 月份比特币飙升至 70,000 美元之前的关键反弹点）可能会阻止更大幅度的下跌，并为价格复苏奠定基础。

Despite the overall bearish seasonality, there are signs of structural bullishness in the medium term, according to QCP. This optimism is evident in market activities, such as the rolling out of long Call options for both Bitcoin and Ethereum until March.

QCP 表示，尽管整体季节性看跌，但中期仍存在结构性看涨迹象。这种乐观情绪在市场活动中显而易见，例如在三月份之前推出比特币和以太坊的多头看涨期权。

Notably, a large number of BTC Call options, set to expire in March 2025, were recently purchased, indicating that some investors are positioning themselves for significant price increases in the coming months.

值得注意的是，近期购买了大量将于 2025 年 3 月到期的 BTC 看涨期权，这表明一些投资者正在为未来几个月的价格大幅上涨做好准备。

However, it is important to note the macroeconomic environment and how economic data releases slated for this month, such as the Unemployment Claims and Non-Farm Payroll reports, could still influence cryptocurrency prices, despite their diminishing impact over recent times.

然而，重要的是要注意宏观经济环境以及本月发布的经济数据（例如失业救济申请和非农就业报告）仍然可能影响加密货币价格，尽管它们的影响最近有所减弱。

Furthermore, on-chain data provides further evidence that September might not be as bearish as usual. The WaveNet deep learning model, which has accurately predicted Bitcoin's price movements in the past, forecasts a potential price bounce this month.

此外，链上数据进一步证明 9 月份可能不会像往常一样悲观。 WaveNet 深度学习模型过去曾准确预测过比特币的价格走势，并预测本月价格可能反弹。

The model assigns a 50% probability that Bitcoin will surpass the $65,000 mark in September, defying the typical seasonal weakness.

该模型预测比特币在 9 月份突破 65,000 美元大关的概率为 50%，克服了典型的季节性疲软现象。

This potential bullish reversal is also supported by reduced selling pressures, as reported earlier by The Crypto Basic. While Bitcoin faced significant downward pressure due to large-scale selloffs earlier this year, including the German government's sale of nearly 50,000 BTC, these sales are now largely complete.

正如 The Crypto Basic 早些时候报道的那样，这种潜在的看涨逆转也得到了抛售压力减少的支持。尽管由于今年早些时候的大规模抛售，包括德国政府出售了近 50,000 枚 BTC，比特币面临着巨大的下行压力，但这些出售目前已基本完成。

Moreover, long-term holders have increased their supply by 262,000 BTC in the past month. Interestingly, when August ended on a bearish note, only four of the last seven Septembers continued the downward trend. In the other three years, Bitcoin reversed course and posted positive returns.

此外，长期持有者在过去一个月增加了 262,000 BTC 的供应量。有趣的是，当八月以看跌结束时，过去七个九月中只有四个延续了下降趋势。在另外三年里，比特币扭转了颓势并实现了正回报。