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市場情報平台IntoTheBlock討論了比特幣所面臨的看跌局面,這讓許多人感到困惑。

Bitcoin had a great first quarter in 2024. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and institutional entities drove demand for the asset, helping it reach new heights. During this run, Bitcoin managed to surpass its all-time high (ATH) set in the previous bull run, breaking a pattern observed in other cycles where ATHs were only reached after the Halving.
比特幣在 2024 年第一季表現出色。在這次多頭市場中,比特幣成功超越了上一次多頭市場中創下的歷史高點(ATH),打破了其他週期中只有在減半後才達到ATH的模式。
With the massive demand, it seemed like things were just getting started for the asset. However, in the months following the ATH, the cryptocurrency has done little but consolidate sideways.
由於需求龐大,該資產的發展似乎才剛開始。然而,在 ATH 之後的幾個月裡,加密貨幣除了橫盤整理之外幾乎沒有做什麼。
In a recent post on X, IntoTheBlock discussed the current situation with Bitcoin, which has left many scratching their heads. The analytics firm highlighted that transfer activity on the BTC network has been high recently, setting a new record for the Number of Transactions metric.
在最近關於 X 的一篇文章中,IntoTheBlock 討論了比特幣的現狀,這讓許多人摸不著頭緒。該分析公司強調,比特幣網路上的轉帳活動最近很高,創下了交易數量指標的新紀錄。
The latest spike in the Number of Transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain was a result of the emergence of the new Runes protocol, which allows users to mint fungible tokens on the network efficiently.
比特幣區塊鏈上交易數量的最新激增是新的符文協議出現的結果,該協議允許用戶在網路上有效地鑄造可替代代幣。
“Institutions are present, and activity on the Bitcoin network is high,” the analytics firm noted. “So, where's the confusion?” The answer to this question lies in the trend of the New Addresses indicator.
該分析公司指出:“機構存在,比特幣網路上的活動也很高。” “那麼,困惑在哪裡呢?”這個問題的答案在於新地址指標的趨勢。
As the name suggests, this metric tracks the total number of new addresses that are created on the network each day. It provides insight into the cryptocurrency's adoption rate.
顧名思義,該指標追蹤每天在網路上創建的新位址總數。它提供了對加密貨幣採用率的深入了解。
The chart below shows how the value of this Bitcoin metric has changed over the past decade.
下圖顯示了這個比特幣指標的價值在過去十年中發生了怎樣的變化。
As you can see, the Bitcoin New Addresses metric has declined while the price has risen to reach a new ATH. As IntoTheBlock noted:
正如您所看到的,比特幣新地址指標有所下降,而價格卻上漲至新的 ATH。正如 IntoTheBlock 指出的:
The data reveals that this surge in usage and whale activity does not involve a significant influx of new participants. In fact, the number of new Bitcoin users has plummeted to a multi-year low, even falling below the levels seen during the 2018 bear market.
數據顯示,使用量和鯨魚活動的激增並不涉及新參與者的大量湧入。事實上,比特幣新用戶數量已跌至多年低點,甚至低於 2018 年熊市期間的水平。
Historically, bull markets have been accompanied by strong asset adoption, as new investors are attracted to the cryptocurrency due to the hype. In turn, this influx of holders helps to fuel the rally.
從歷史上看,牛市一直伴隨著強勁的資產採用,因為新投資者因炒作而被加密貨幣所吸引。反過來,持有者的湧入也有助於推動漲勢。
It appears that despite the asset reaching a new ATH, the network has failed to attract new users. This is what has left many puzzled. The slowdown could, at least in part, explain why Bitcoin has failed to continue its bullish momentum. It now remains to be seen whether this will change for the coin soon or not.
看來,儘管資產達到了新的 ATH,但該網路未能吸引新用戶。這也是讓很多人不解的地方。經濟放緩至少可以部分解釋為何比特幣未能繼續其看漲勢頭。現在,這種情況是否會很快改變還有待觀察。
BTC Price
比特幣價格
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $65,000, having declined by 7% over the past week.
截至撰寫本文時,比特幣交易價格約為 65,000 美元,過去一周下跌了 7%。
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