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市场情报平台IntoTheBlock讨论了比特币所面临的看跌局面,这让许多人感到困惑。

Bitcoin had a great first quarter in 2024. Spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) and institutional entities drove demand for the asset, helping it reach new heights. During this run, Bitcoin managed to surpass its all-time high (ATH) set in the previous bull run, breaking a pattern observed in other cycles where ATHs were only reached after the Halving.
比特币在 2024 年第一季度表现出色。现货交易所交易基金 (ETF) 和机构实体推动了对该资产的需求,帮助其达到新的高度。在本次牛市中,比特币成功超越了上一次牛市中创下的历史新高(ATH),打破了其他周期中仅在减半后才达到ATH的模式。
With the massive demand, it seemed like things were just getting started for the asset. However, in the months following the ATH, the cryptocurrency has done little but consolidate sideways.
由于需求巨大,该资产的发展似乎才刚刚开始。然而,在 ATH 之后的几个月里,加密货币除了横盘整理之外几乎没有做什么。
In a recent post on X, IntoTheBlock discussed the current situation with Bitcoin, which has left many scratching their heads. The analytics firm highlighted that transfer activity on the BTC network has been high recently, setting a new record for the Number of Transactions metric.
在最近关于 X 的一篇文章中,IntoTheBlock 讨论了比特币的现状,这让许多人摸不着头脑。该分析公司强调,比特币网络上的转账活动最近很高,创下了交易数量指标的新纪录。
The latest spike in the Number of Transactions on the Bitcoin blockchain was a result of the emergence of the new Runes protocol, which allows users to mint fungible tokens on the network efficiently.
比特币区块链上交易数量的最新激增是新的符文协议出现的结果,该协议允许用户在网络上有效地铸造可替代代币。
“Institutions are present, and activity on the Bitcoin network is high,” the analytics firm noted. “So, where's the confusion?” The answer to this question lies in the trend of the New Addresses indicator.
该分析公司指出:“机构存在,比特币网络上的活动也很高。” “那么,困惑在哪里呢?”这个问题的答案在于新地址指标的趋势。
As the name suggests, this metric tracks the total number of new addresses that are created on the network each day. It provides insight into the cryptocurrency's adoption rate.
顾名思义,该指标跟踪每天在网络上创建的新地址总数。它提供了对加密货币采用率的深入了解。
The chart below shows how the value of this Bitcoin metric has changed over the past decade.
下图显示了这一比特币指标的价值在过去十年中发生了怎样的变化。
As you can see, the Bitcoin New Addresses metric has declined while the price has risen to reach a new ATH. As IntoTheBlock noted:
正如您所看到的,比特币新地址指标有所下降,而价格却上涨至新的 ATH。正如 IntoTheBlock 指出的:
The data reveals that this surge in usage and whale activity does not involve a significant influx of new participants. In fact, the number of new Bitcoin users has plummeted to a multi-year low, even falling below the levels seen during the 2018 bear market.
数据显示,使用量和鲸鱼活动的激增并不涉及新参与者的大量涌入。事实上,比特币新用户数量已跌至多年低点,甚至低于 2018 年熊市期间的水平。
Historically, bull markets have been accompanied by strong asset adoption, as new investors are attracted to the cryptocurrency due to the hype. In turn, this influx of holders helps to fuel the rally.
从历史上看,牛市一直伴随着强劲的资产采用,因为新投资者因炒作而被加密货币所吸引。反过来,持有者的涌入也有助于推动涨势。
It appears that despite the asset reaching a new ATH, the network has failed to attract new users. This is what has left many puzzled. The slowdown could, at least in part, explain why Bitcoin has failed to continue its bullish momentum. It now remains to be seen whether this will change for the coin soon or not.
看来,尽管资产达到了新的 ATH,但该网络未能吸引新用户。这也是让很多人不解的地方。经济放缓至少可以部分解释为什么比特币未能继续其看涨势头。现在,这种情况是否会很快改变还有待观察。
BTC Price
比特币价格
At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at around $65,000, having declined by 7% over the past week.
截至撰写本文时,比特币交易价格约为 65,000 美元,过去一周下跌了 7%。
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