Arthur Hayes 表示新的加密項目是時候推出他們的代幣了

BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 在表示 4 月和 5 月加密市場平靜後表示，現在是新加密專案推出代幣的時候了。

After predicting a crypto market lull in April and May, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says it’s time for new crypto projects to launch their tokens.

BitMEX 聯合創始人 Arthur Hayes 在預測 4 月和 5 月加密貨幣市場平靜後表示，現在是新的加密貨幣專案推出其代幣的時候了。

In his latest essay about how economic conditions will affect the crypto market, Hayes said that several portfolio projects of his venture firm recently asked him whether they should launch tokens.

海耶斯在他關於經濟狀況將如何影響加密貨幣市場的最新文章中表示，他的創投公司的幾個投資組合項目最近詢問他是否應該推出代幣。

His answer: A resounding yes.

他的回答是：肯定的。

“The trend is clear,” Hayes said, pointing to interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank. “Central banks at the margin are starting easing cycles.”

海斯表示，“趨勢很明顯”，他指的是加拿大央行和歐洲央行的降息。 “處於邊緣地位的央行正在開始寬鬆週期。”

Interest rate cuts make borrowing cheaper, which tends to drive investors toward riskier assets.

降息使借貸成本降低，這往往會促使投資人轉向風險較高的資產。

When optimistic investors send crypto prices higher, projects rush to launch tokens to capitalise on the favourable market conditions.

當樂觀的投資者推高加密貨幣價格時，專案就會爭先恐後地推出代幣，以利用有利的市場條件。

Hayes’ family office runs a crypto venture firm called Maelstrom Capital. The firm lists a portfolio of over 20 crypto startups.

海耶斯的家族辦公室經營著一家名為 Maelstrom Capital 的加密創投公司。該公司列出了 20 多家加密新創公司的投資組合。

While some of these companies have already launched tokens, others, such as Elixir, have not, despite running a months-long points campaign — often a signal that a crypto project is planning to launch a token.

雖然其中一些公司已經推出了代幣，但其他公司（例如 Elixir）儘管開展了長達數月的積分活動，但尚未推出——這通常表明加密貨幣項目正計劃推出代幣。

Investors tire of tokens

投資者厭倦了代幣

There are reasons projects may still want to hold off on launching their tokens.

項目可能仍希望推遲推出代幣，這是有原因的。

DeFi users have pushed back against projects that employ what many call predatory “low float high FDV” token structures that benefit early venture investors.

DeFi 用戶反對採用許多人所說的掠奪性「低浮動高 FDV」代幣結構的項目，這種結構有利於早期風險投資者。

Fully diluted valuation — or FDV — refers to the total value of a token’s supply, including those locked or yet to be distributed, and not just those that are circulating.

完全稀釋估值（FDV）是指代幣供應的總價值，包括鎖定或尚未分配的代幣，而不僅僅是流通的代幣。

As a result, many new tokens have plummeted on launch, signalling a lack of investor demand.

結果，許多新代幣一推出就暴跌，顯示投資者需求不足。

A macroeconomic shift

總體經濟轉變

Still, investor fatigue could be quickly forgotten with a swift change in economic conditions.

不過，隨著經濟狀況的快速變化，投資人的疲勞可能很快就會被忘記。

Hayes pointed to recent rate cuts from The Bank of Canada and The European Central Bank as an indication that macroeconomic conditions are shifting faster than he anticipated.

海耶斯指出，加拿大央行和歐洲央行最近的降息顯示宏觀經濟狀況的變化速度比他預期的要快。

“I thought the fireworks would start in August,” he said.

「我以為煙火會在八月開始，」他說。

Hayes, however, held off on predicting an immediate rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

然而，海耶斯並未預測聯準會將立即降息。

Still, the likelihood of rate cuts in the US jumped.

儘管如此，美國降息的可能性仍在上升。

Neil Wilson, chief analyst at Markets.com, said weaker-than-expected US economic data sent the odds of a rate cut in September to 70%.

Markets.com首席分析師尼爾威爾森(Neil Wilson)表示，美國經濟數據弱於預期，導致9月降息的可能性達到70%。

The reaction was swift.

反應很快。

On June 4, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw the largest one-day investment since March 12.

6 月 4 日，美國現貨比特幣交易所交易基金出現 3 月 12 日以來最大單日投資。

The battle for the yen

日圓爭奪戰

Hayes previously outlined why he believes a weakening Japanese yen will send crypto prices higher.

海耶斯先前概述了為什麼他認為日圓貶值將推高加密貨幣價格。

To help prop up the yen’s value, the Fed could create new dollars and swap them for yen with the Bank of Japan. This would allow Japan’s Ministry of Finance to buy up yen on foreign exchange markets, increasing its value.

為了幫助支撐日圓的價值，聯準會可以創造新的美元並與日本央行兌換成日圓。這將使日本財務省能夠在外匯市場上購買日圓，從而提高其價值。

Hayes argues this so-called money printing is good for risk assets — including crypto.

海耶斯認為，這種所謂的印鈔有利於風險資產──包括加密貨幣。

Hayes pointed to another way to narrow the gap between the yen’s value and those of other currencies.

海耶斯指出了另一種縮小日圓與其他貨幣幣值差距的方法。

Interest rates in Japan are much lower than in the US and Europe. This devalues the yen as traders sell it for other currencies with higher interest rates.

日本的利率遠低於美國和歐洲。這使得日圓貶值，因為交易員將日圓出售為利率較高的其他貨幣。

To combat the yen selling, central banks with high interest rates could lower them to make this trade less appealing.

為了對抗日圓拋售，高利率的央行可能會降低利率，從而降低這種交易的吸引力。

However, lowering interest rates also risks stoking another wave of inflation.

然而，降低利率也有可能引發另一波通膨。

Hayes’ bets

海耶斯的賭注

Hayes said he’ll divulge his strategy in due course.

海耶斯表示，他將在適當的時候透露他的策略。

“It is time to deploy it again on conviction shitcoins,” he wrote. “Of course, I’ll tell readers what those are after I have purchased them.”

「是時候在信念垃圾幣上再次部署它了，」他寫道。 “當然，我購買後會告訴讀者這些是什麼。”

“But suffice it to say, the crypto bull is reawakening and is about to gore the hides of profligate central bankers.”

“但我只想說，加密貨幣牛市正在重新覺醒，並且即將刺破揮霍無度的央行行長的臉。”

Tim Craig is a DeFi Correspondent at DL News. Got a tip? Email him at tim@dlnews.com.

Tim Craig 是 DL News 的 DeFi 記者。有小費嗎？給他發電子郵件：tim@dlnews.com。