Arthur Hayes 表示新的加密项目是时候推出他们的代币了

BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 在称 4 月和 5 月加密市场平静后表示，现在是新加密项目推出代币的时候了。

After predicting a crypto market lull in April and May, BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes says it’s time for new crypto projects to launch their tokens.

BitMEX 联合创始人 Arthur Hayes 在预测 4 月和 5 月加密货币市场平静后表示，现在是新的加密货币项目推出其代币的时候了。

In his latest essay about how economic conditions will affect the crypto market, Hayes said that several portfolio projects of his venture firm recently asked him whether they should launch tokens.

海耶斯在他关于经济状况将如何影响加密货币市场的最新文章中表示，他的风险投资公司的几个投资组合项目最近询问他是否应该推出代币。

His answer: A resounding yes.

他的回答是：肯定的。

“The trend is clear,” Hayes said, pointing to interest rate cuts from the Bank of Canada and the European Central Bank. “Central banks at the margin are starting easing cycles.”

海斯表示，“趋势很明显”，他指的是加拿大央行和欧洲央行的降息。 “处于边缘地位的央行正在开始宽松周期。”

Interest rate cuts make borrowing cheaper, which tends to drive investors toward riskier assets.

降息使借贷成本降低，这往往会促使投资者转向风险较高的资产。

When optimistic investors send crypto prices higher, projects rush to launch tokens to capitalise on the favourable market conditions.

当乐观的投资者推高加密货币价格时，项目就会争先恐后地推出代币，以利用有利的市场条件。

Hayes’ family office runs a crypto venture firm called Maelstrom Capital. The firm lists a portfolio of over 20 crypto startups.

海耶斯的家族办公室经营着一​​家名为 Maelstrom Capital 的加密风险投资公司。该公司列出了 20 多家加密初创公司的投资组合。

While some of these companies have already launched tokens, others, such as Elixir, have not, despite running a months-long points campaign — often a signal that a crypto project is planning to launch a token.

虽然其中一些公司已经推出了代币，但其他公司（例如 Elixir）尽管开展了长达数月的积分活动，但尚未推出——这通常表明加密货币项目正计划推出代币。

Investors tire of tokens

投资者厌倦了代币

There are reasons projects may still want to hold off on launching their tokens.

项目可能仍希望推迟推出代币，这是有原因的。

DeFi users have pushed back against projects that employ what many call predatory “low float high FDV” token structures that benefit early venture investors.

DeFi 用户反对采用许多人所说的掠夺性“低浮动高 FDV”代币结构的项目，这种结构有利于早期风险投资者。

Fully diluted valuation — or FDV — refers to the total value of a token’s supply, including those locked or yet to be distributed, and not just those that are circulating.

完全稀释估值（FDV）是指代币供应的总价值，包括锁定或尚未分配的代币，而不仅仅是流通的代币。

As a result, many new tokens have plummeted on launch, signalling a lack of investor demand.

结果，许多新代币一推出就暴跌，表明投资者需求不足。

A macroeconomic shift

宏观经济转变

Still, investor fatigue could be quickly forgotten with a swift change in economic conditions.

不过，随着经济状况的迅速变化，投资者的疲劳可能很快就会被忘记。

Hayes pointed to recent rate cuts from The Bank of Canada and The European Central Bank as an indication that macroeconomic conditions are shifting faster than he anticipated.

海耶斯指出，加拿大央行和欧洲央行最近的降息表明宏观经济状况的变化速度比他预期的要快。

“I thought the fireworks would start in August,” he said.

“我以为烟花会在八月开始，”他说。

Hayes, however, held off on predicting an immediate rate cut from the Federal Reserve.

然而，海耶斯并未预测美联储将立即降息。

Still, the likelihood of rate cuts in the US jumped.

尽管如此，美国降息的可能性仍在上升。

Neil Wilson, chief analyst at Markets.com, said weaker-than-expected US economic data sent the odds of a rate cut in September to 70%.

Markets.com首席分析师尼尔·威尔逊(Neil Wilson)表示，美国经济数据弱于预期，导致9月份降息的可能性达到70%。

The reaction was swift.

反应很快。

On June 4, US spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds saw the largest one-day investment since March 12.

6 月 4 日，美国现货比特币交易所交易基金出现 3 月 12 日以来最大单日投资。

The battle for the yen

日元争夺战

Hayes previously outlined why he believes a weakening Japanese yen will send crypto prices higher.

海耶斯此前概述了为什么他认为日元贬值将推高加密货币价格。

To help prop up the yen’s value, the Fed could create new dollars and swap them for yen with the Bank of Japan. This would allow Japan’s Ministry of Finance to buy up yen on foreign exchange markets, increasing its value.

为了帮助支撑日元的价值，美联储可以创造新的美元并与日本央行将其兑换成日元。这将使日本财务省能够在外汇市场上购买日元，从而提高其价值。

Hayes argues this so-called money printing is good for risk assets — including crypto.

海耶斯认为，这种所谓的印钞有利于风险资产——包括加密货币。

Hayes pointed to another way to narrow the gap between the yen’s value and those of other currencies.

海耶斯指出了另一种缩小日元与其他货币币值差距的方法。

Interest rates in Japan are much lower than in the US and Europe. This devalues the yen as traders sell it for other currencies with higher interest rates.

日本的利率远低于美国和欧洲。这使得日元贬值，因为交易员将日元出售为利率更高的其他货币。

To combat the yen selling, central banks with high interest rates could lower them to make this trade less appealing.

为了对抗日元抛售，高利率的央行可能会降低利率，从而降低这种交易的吸引力。

However, lowering interest rates also risks stoking another wave of inflation.

然而，降低利率也有可能引发另一波通胀。

Hayes’ bets

海耶斯的赌注

Hayes said he’ll divulge his strategy in due course.

海耶斯表示，他将在适当的时候透露他的策略。

“It is time to deploy it again on conviction shitcoins,” he wrote. “Of course, I’ll tell readers what those are after I have purchased them.”

“是时候在信念垃圾币上再次部署它了，”他写道。 “当然，我购买后会告诉读者这些是什么。”

“But suffice it to say, the crypto bull is reawakening and is about to gore the hides of profligate central bankers.”

“但我只想说，加密货币牛市正在重新觉醒，并且即将刺破挥霍无度的央行行长的脸。”

Tim Craig is a DeFi Correspondent at DL News. Got a tip? Email him at tim@dlnews.com.

Tim Craig 是 DL News 的 DeFi 记者。有小费吗？给他发电子邮件：tim@dlnews.com。