到本十年末

凱茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）十億美元的投資經理方舟投資（Ark Invest

Cathie Wood’s investment manager Ark Invest has upped its bull-case Bitcoin price target to as high as $2.4 million by the end of this decade, steeper than a previous projection of $1.5 million, driven mainly by institutional investors and Bitcoin’s growing acceptance as “digital gold.”

凱茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）的投資經理方舟投資（Ark Invest）在本十年末提高了其公牛比特幣的價格目標高達240萬美元，比以前的150萬美元預測陡峭，主要由機構投資者和比特幣（Bitcoin）作為“數字黃金”的認可。

2030 Bitcoin Bull Case

2030比特幣公牛盒

In an April 24 report, Ark Research analyst David Puell wrote that the January 2024 bull case price projection for Bitcoin was around $1.5 million. But using the company’s latest experimental model, which is based on total addressable market and projected market penetration across multiple sectors, Ark has now forecasted a bull-case price of $2.4 million by 2030.

在4月24日的報告中，方舟研究分析師戴維·普爾（David Puell）寫道，2024年1月的比特幣牛案案例預測約為150萬美元。但是，使用公司的最新實驗模型，該模型基於多個行業的總可尋址市場和預計的市場滲透率，ARK現在預測到2030年，牛市價格為240萬美元。

The bull-case projection, which is 60% more than Ark’s initial estimate, is based on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 72% from last December through the end of 2030.

公牛案例預測比方舟的初始估計高60％，它基於從去年12月到2030年底的複合年度增長率（CAGR）約72％。

Using this new model, which Puell described as more “aggressive” than Ark’s official methodology, the report estimates a BTC price of $1.2 million in the base case and $500,000 in the bear case.

使用這種新模式，Puell將其描述為比ARK的官方方法更“積極”，該報告估計，基本案例的BTC價格為120萬美元，在Bear Case中估計50萬美元。

“Institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case,” said Puell, who estimated that Bitcoin would reach a 6.5% penetration rate into the $200 trillion financial market in a best-case scenario (that figure does not include gold).

普爾說：“機構投資對我們的公牛案貢獻最大。”他估計，在最佳情況下，比特幣將達到200萬億美元金融市場的6.5％的滲透率（該數字不包括黃金）。

Bitcoin’s acceptance as digital gold also contributed significantly to the ambitious estimate, with the Ark Invest strategist suggesting that the apex crypto could capture up to 60% of the precious metal’s market cap by the end of 2030 in a bull scenario. Bitcoin’s use as a haven in emerging markets was another major contributor to ARK’s $2.4 million bull case forecast.

比特幣作為數字黃金的接受也為雄心勃勃的估計做出了重大貢獻，方舟投資策略師暗示，到2030年底，Apex Crypto可以在公牛場景中捕獲多達60％的貴金屬市值。比特幣在新興市場中用作避風港是ARK 240萬美元公牛案預測的另一個主要貢獻者。

Ark Invest also factored adoption for nation-state and corporate treasury holdings into its Bitcoin price predictions.

方舟投資還考慮了對其比特幣價格預測的民族國家和公司財政部持有的收養。

“We also believe that this more experimental exercise highlights that Bitcoin’s scarcity and lost supply are not reflected in most valuation models today,” Puell added.

普爾補充說：“我們還認為，這種實驗性的練習強調了比特幣的稀缺性和供應量丟失在當今大多數估值模型中都沒有反映出來。”

Will Bitcoin Rocket By 2,400% By 2030?

到2030年，比特幣火箭會增加2,400％嗎？

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was changing hands at $95,151, according to CoinGecko. Reaching the $2.4 million Bitcoin price tag would represent a 2,426% increase, which would put BTC’s market cap at $49 trillion.

根據Coingecko的說法，在撰寫本文時，比特幣的股份為95,151美元。達到240萬美元比特幣的價格標籤將增長2,426％，這將使BTC的市值達到49萬億美元。

A $49 trillion valuation would be significantly larger than the combined gross domestic products of the United States and China. It would also position Bitcoin to usurp gold as the largest asset in the world, which currently boasts a market cap of $22 trillion.

49萬億美元的估值將大大比美國和中國的國內總產量大得多。它還將比特幣篡奪黃金作為世界上最大的資產，目前擁有22萬億美元的市值。

While Ark’s prediction reflects their strong belief in Bitcoin, it remains to be seen whether the apex crypto can indeed reach those lofty heights.

儘管方舟的預測反映了他們對比特幣的強烈信念，但尚待觀察，頂點加密是否確實可以達到那些崇高的高度。