到本十年末

凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）十亿美元的投资经理方舟投资（Ark Invest

Cathie Wood’s investment manager Ark Invest has upped its bull-case Bitcoin price target to as high as $2.4 million by the end of this decade, steeper than a previous projection of $1.5 million, driven mainly by institutional investors and Bitcoin’s growing acceptance as “digital gold.”

凯茜·伍德（Cathie Wood）的投资经理方舟投资（Ark Invest）在本十年末提高了其公牛比特币的价格目标高达240万美元，比以前的150万美元预测陡峭，主要由机构投资者和比特币（Bitcoin）作为“数字黄金”的认可。

2030 Bitcoin Bull Case

2030比特币公牛盒

In an April 24 report, Ark Research analyst David Puell wrote that the January 2024 bull case price projection for Bitcoin was around $1.5 million. But using the company’s latest experimental model, which is based on total addressable market and projected market penetration across multiple sectors, Ark has now forecasted a bull-case price of $2.4 million by 2030.

在4月24日的报告中，方舟研究分析师戴维·普尔（David Puell）写道，2024年1月的比特币牛案案例预测约为150万美元。但是，使用公司的最新实验模型，该模型基于多个行业的总可寻址市场和预计的市场渗透率，ARK现在预测到2030年，牛市价格为240万美元。

The bull-case projection, which is 60% more than Ark’s initial estimate, is based on a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of about 72% from last December through the end of 2030.

公牛案例预测比方舟的初始估计高60％，它基于从去年12月到2030年底的复合年度增长率（CAGR）约72％。

Using this new model, which Puell described as more “aggressive” than Ark’s official methodology, the report estimates a BTC price of $1.2 million in the base case and $500,000 in the bear case.

使用这种新模式，Puell将其描述为比ARK的官方方法更“积极”，该报告估计，基本案例的BTC价格为120万美元，在Bear Case中估计50万美元。

“Institutional investment contributes the most to our bull case,” said Puell, who estimated that Bitcoin would reach a 6.5% penetration rate into the $200 trillion financial market in a best-case scenario (that figure does not include gold).

普尔说：“机构投资对我们的公牛案贡献最大。”他估计，在最佳情况下，比特币将达到200万亿美元金融市场的6.5％的渗透率（该数字不包括黄金）。

Bitcoin’s acceptance as digital gold also contributed significantly to the ambitious estimate, with the Ark Invest strategist suggesting that the apex crypto could capture up to 60% of the precious metal’s market cap by the end of 2030 in a bull scenario. Bitcoin’s use as a haven in emerging markets was another major contributor to ARK’s $2.4 million bull case forecast.

比特币作为数字黄金的接受也为雄心勃勃的估计做出了重大贡献，方舟投资策略师暗示，到2030年底，Apex Crypto可以在公牛场景中捕获多达60％的贵金属市值。比特币在新兴市场中用作避风港是ARK 240万美元公牛案预测的另一个主要贡献者。

Ark Invest also factored adoption for nation-state and corporate treasury holdings into its Bitcoin price predictions.

方舟投资还考虑了对其比特币价格预测的民族国家和公司财政部持有的收养。

“We also believe that this more experimental exercise highlights that Bitcoin’s scarcity and lost supply are not reflected in most valuation models today,” Puell added.

普尔补充说：“我们还认为，这种实验性的练习强调了比特币的稀缺性和供应量丢失在当今大多数估值模型中都没有反映出来。”

Will Bitcoin Rocket By 2,400% By 2030?

到2030年，比特币火箭会增加2,400％吗？

At the time of writing, Bitcoin was changing hands at $95,151, according to CoinGecko. Reaching the $2.4 million Bitcoin price tag would represent a 2,426% increase, which would put BTC’s market cap at $49 trillion.

根据Coingecko的说法，在撰写本文时，比特币的股份为95,151美元。达到240万美元比特币的价格标签将增长2,426％，这将使BTC的市值达到49万亿美元。

A $49 trillion valuation would be significantly larger than the combined gross domestic products of the United States and China. It would also position Bitcoin to usurp gold as the largest asset in the world, which currently boasts a market cap of $22 trillion.

49万亿美元的估值将大大比美国和中国的国内总产量大得多。它还将比特币篡夺黄金作为世界上最大的资产，目前拥有22万亿美元的市值。

While Ark’s prediction reflects their strong belief in Bitcoin, it remains to be seen whether the apex crypto can indeed reach those lofty heights.

尽管方舟的预测反映了他们对比特币的强烈信念，但尚待观察，顶点加密是否确实可以达到那些崇高的高度。