Big Apple Bit：第三波觀察者稱，比特幣的反彈掩蓋了更深的跳水

比特幣謹慎反彈，但精明的分析師警告稱，這只是艾略特第三波崩盤軌跡上的一個​​停頓，考驗著市場的彈性和投資者的神經。

Alright, crypto-curious folks, let's talk Bitcoin. Just when some were starting to breathe a sigh of relief, with BTC clawing its way back from the mid-$75,000s towards the $79,000 mark – a nice little rebound, sure – a closer look at the charts suggests we might be getting ahead of ourselves. While the immediate selling pressure has eased, some of the sharpest eyes in technical analysis are flagging this bounce as potentially just a temporary reprieve within a much larger, more ominous bearish structure. Think of it as a brief intermission before the next act.

好吧，對加密貨幣感興趣的人們，讓我們來談談比特幣。就在一些人開始鬆一口氣的時候，比特幣從 75,000 美元左右回升至 79,000 美元大關——當然是一次不錯的小反彈——仔細觀察圖表表明我們可能有點超前了。雖然眼前的拋售壓力有所緩解，但技術分析中一些最敏銳的目光將這次反彈標記為可能只是更大、更不祥的看跌結構中的暫時緩解。將其視為下一幕之前的短暫休息。

The Bounce: A Breather or a Bottom?

反彈：喘息還是觸底？

For the past 24 hours, Bitcoin showed some spunk, rallying from around $75,400 and eyeing that psychologically significant $80,000 level. It's a welcome sight, no doubt, for those who've watched the recent dip below $80,000 with bated breath. But before we start popping champagne, technical indicators are whispering a different tune. This rebound, as encouraging as it feels, might be occurring smack-dab in the middle of an Elliott Wave structure that still points to significant downside ahead. In the world of high-stakes crypto, what looks like a recovery can sometimes be a strategic pause.

在過去 24 小時內，比特幣表現出了一些勇氣，從 75,400 美元左右反彈，並瞄準了 80,000 美元的心理重要水平。毫無疑問，對於那些屏息凝視近期跌破 80,000 美元的人來說，這是一個值得歡迎的景象。但在我們開始開香檳之前，技術指標卻在竊竊私語。這種反彈雖然令人鼓舞，但可能恰好發生在艾略特波浪結構的中間，而該結構仍然預示著未來的重大下行趨勢。在高風險的加密貨幣世界中，看似復甦的情況有時可能是戰略性的停頓。

Riding the Elliott Wave: Brace for Wave 3's Bite

駕馭艾略特波浪：迎接第三波浪潮的衝擊

Here’s the scoop from the technical trenches: the recent Bitcoin sell-off isn't just random market jitters. Analysts following Elliott Wave theory suggest it fits squarely into a larger pattern of decline. This model charts an extended drop originating from a projected $126,000 peak in October 2025. From that hypothetical high, Bitcoin has already seen a roughly 41% drawdown – a figure that aligns eerily with historical warnings of 40-50% crashes in early bear market phases.

以下是來自技術前沿的獨家新聞：最近的比特幣拋售不僅僅是隨機的市場波動。遵循艾略特波浪理論的分析師認為，它完全符合更大的下跌模式。該模型描繪了從 2025 年 10 月預計的 126,000 美元峰值開始的持續下跌。從這個假設的高點開始，比特幣已經下跌了約 41%——這一數字與熊市早期階段 40-50% 崩盤的歷史警告驚人地吻合。

Currently, the chatter is that Bitcoin has wrapped up its Primary Wave 4 near $97,900 and is now knee-deep in Primary Wave 5, which is inherently a downward move. And within that larger descent, we're reportedly navigating Intermediate Wave 3. For those unfamiliar, Wave 3 is notoriously the most aggressive, damaging, and lengthy leg of an Elliott Wave impulse. So, while your portfolio might feel a momentary lift, the underlying currents are signaling deeper waters.

目前，有傳言稱，比特幣已經在 97,900 美元附近結束了其主波 4，現在已經深入到了主波 5，這本質上是一個下行走勢。據報導，在更大的下降過程中，我們正在航行中波 3。對於那些不熟悉的人來說，波 3 眾所周知是艾略特波浪沖動中最具攻擊性、破壞性和最長的一段。因此，雖然你的投資組合可能會感到短暫的提升，但潛在的潮流正在預示著更深的水域。

Bitcoin's Dual Nature: Risk Asset vs. Safe Haven Dreams

比特幣的雙重性質：風險資產與避險資產夢想

Adding another layer to this complex picture is Bitcoin's evolving identity. As strategists like Steve Sosnick from Interactive Brokers point out, Bitcoin has increasingly transitioned into a

比特幣不斷演變的身份為這張復雜的圖景增添了另一層。正如盈透證券 (Interactive Brokers) 的史蒂夫·索斯尼克 (Steve Sosnick) 等策略師指出的那樣，比特幣已日益轉變為一種