Big Apple Bit：第三波观察者称，比特币的反弹掩盖了更深的跳水

比特币谨慎反弹，但精明的分析师警告称，这只是艾略特第三波崩盘轨迹上的一个​​停顿，考验着市场的弹性和投资者的神经。

Alright, crypto-curious folks, let's talk Bitcoin. Just when some were starting to breathe a sigh of relief, with BTC clawing its way back from the mid-$75,000s towards the $79,000 mark – a nice little rebound, sure – a closer look at the charts suggests we might be getting ahead of ourselves. While the immediate selling pressure has eased, some of the sharpest eyes in technical analysis are flagging this bounce as potentially just a temporary reprieve within a much larger, more ominous bearish structure. Think of it as a brief intermission before the next act.

好吧，对加密货币感兴趣的人们，让我们来谈谈比特币。就在一些人开始松一口气的时候，比特币从 75,000 美元左右回升至 79,000 美元大关——当然是一次不错的小反弹——仔细观察图表表明我们可能有点超前了。虽然眼前的抛售压力有所缓解，但技术分析中一些最敏锐的目光将这次反弹标记为可能只是更大、更不祥的看跌结构中的暂时缓解。将其视为下一幕之前的短暂休息。

The Bounce: A Breather or a Bottom?

反弹：喘息还是触底？

For the past 24 hours, Bitcoin showed some spunk, rallying from around $75,400 and eyeing that psychologically significant $80,000 level. It's a welcome sight, no doubt, for those who've watched the recent dip below $80,000 with bated breath. But before we start popping champagne, technical indicators are whispering a different tune. This rebound, as encouraging as it feels, might be occurring smack-dab in the middle of an Elliott Wave structure that still points to significant downside ahead. In the world of high-stakes crypto, what looks like a recovery can sometimes be a strategic pause.

在过去 24 小时内，比特币表现出了一些勇气，从 75,400 美元左右反弹，并瞄准了 80,000 美元的心理重要水平。毫无疑问，对于那些屏息凝视近期跌破 80,000 美元的人来说，这是一个值得欢迎的景象。但在我们开始开香槟之前，技术指标却在窃窃私语。这种反弹虽然令人鼓舞，但可能恰好发生在艾略特波浪结构的中间，而该结构仍然预示着未来的重大下行趋势。在高风险的加密货币世界中，看似复苏的情况有时可能是战略性的停顿。

Riding the Elliott Wave: Brace for Wave 3's Bite

驾驭艾略特波浪：迎接第三波浪潮的冲击

Here’s the scoop from the technical trenches: the recent Bitcoin sell-off isn't just random market jitters. Analysts following Elliott Wave theory suggest it fits squarely into a larger pattern of decline. This model charts an extended drop originating from a projected $126,000 peak in October 2025. From that hypothetical high, Bitcoin has already seen a roughly 41% drawdown – a figure that aligns eerily with historical warnings of 40-50% crashes in early bear market phases.

以下是来自技术前沿的独家新闻：最近的比特币抛售不仅仅是随机的市场波动。遵循艾略特波浪理论的分析师认为，它完全符合更大的下跌模式。该模型描绘了从 2025 年 10 月预计的 126,000 美元峰值开始的持续下跌。从这个假设的高点开始，比特币已经下跌了约 41%——这一数字与熊市早期阶段 40-50% 崩盘的历史警告惊人地吻合。

Currently, the chatter is that Bitcoin has wrapped up its Primary Wave 4 near $97,900 and is now knee-deep in Primary Wave 5, which is inherently a downward move. And within that larger descent, we're reportedly navigating Intermediate Wave 3. For those unfamiliar, Wave 3 is notoriously the most aggressive, damaging, and lengthy leg of an Elliott Wave impulse. So, while your portfolio might feel a momentary lift, the underlying currents are signaling deeper waters.

目前，有传言称，比特币已经在 97,900 美元附近结束了其主波 4，现在已经深入到了主波 5，这本质上是一个下行走势。据报道，在更大的下降过程中，我们正在航行中波 3。对于那些不熟悉的人来说，波 3 众所周知是艾略特波浪冲动中最具攻击性、破坏性和最长的一段。因此，虽然你的投资组合可能会感到短暂的提升，但潜在的潮流正在预示着更深的水域。

Bitcoin's Dual Nature: Risk Asset vs. Safe Haven Dreams

比特币的双重性质：风险资产与避险资产梦想

Adding another layer to this complex picture is Bitcoin's evolving identity. As strategists like Steve Sosnick from Interactive Brokers point out, Bitcoin has increasingly transitioned into a

比特币不断演变的身份为这张复杂的图景增添了另一层。正如盈透证券 (Interactive Brokers) 的史蒂夫·索斯尼克 (Steve Sosnick) 等策略师指出的那样，比特币已日益转变为一种