山寨幣本週期表現遜於比特幣，但分析師認為還有追趕的空間

在這個牛市週期中，加密貨幣市場一直在衝破比特幣的頂峰並享受看漲勢頭。然而，投資者希望發生地震性爆炸，將山寨幣推向新高。

Investors in the crypto market have been riding high on Bitcoin's wave during this bull cycle, hoping for a surge that will propel altcoins to new peaks.

在這次牛市週期中，加密貨幣市場的投資者一直在比特幣的浪潮中乘勢而上，希望比特幣的飆升將山寨幣推向新的高峰。

However, recent data reveals that only a handful of altcoins have managed to hit a new all-time high (ATH) against Bitcoin since FTX's fall. According to a crypto analyst, this is due to several factors, including changing asset selection dynamics and the market's focus on specific sectors.

然而，最近的數據顯示，自 FTX 下跌以來，只有少數山寨幣兌比特幣創下了歷史新高 (ATH)。一位加密貨幣分析師表示，這是由於多種因素造成的，包括資產選擇動態的變化以及市場對特定行業的關注。

Only Eight Altcoins Hit New ATHs vs. Bitcoin This Cycle

本週期只有八種山寨幣與比特幣相比達到新的 ATH

On Friday, March 17, a crypto analyst named Miles Deutscher shared a curious observation about the crypto market. Since November 2022, only eight altcoins have broken their previous ATH against the flagship cryptocurrency.

3 月 17 日星期五，一位名叫 Miles Deutscher 的加密貨幣分析師分享了對加密貨幣市場的好奇觀察。自 2022 年 11 月以來，只有 8 種山寨幣相對於旗艦加密貨幣突破了先前的 ATH。

To put this in perspective, here are the tokens that achieved this feat: Render (RNDR), Tellor (TRB), Injective (INJ), Astar (ASTR), SSV Network (SSV), SingularityNET (AGIX), True Wallet Token (TWT), and Binance Coin (BNB).

為了正確看待這一點，以下是實現這一壯舉的代幣：Render (RNDR)、Tellor (TRB)、Injective (INJ)、Astar (ASTR)、SSV Network (SSV)、SingularityNET (AGIX)、True Wallet Token ( TWT）和幣安幣（BNB）。

notably, RNDR was the last to accomplish this on March 11, and the list only includes altcoins that were launched before FTX's collapse.

值得注意的是，RNDR 是最後一個在 3 月 11 日實現這一目標的，而該清單僅包括 FTX 崩潰之前推出的山寨幣。

Deutscher initially found the news shocking, but it made sense to him upon further analysis. He highlighted some takeaways based on the singularities of this run.

多伊徹最初覺得這個消息令人震驚，但經過進一步分析，他覺得這是有道理的。他根據這次運行的奇點強調了一些要點。

First, the analyst considers that asset selection dynamics have changed from previous cycles. Investors have been “punished” for being overexposed to certain sectors like L2 and gaming and “rewarded” for participating in others like Memecoins and AI.

首先，分析師認為資產選擇動態與先前的周期相比已經改變了。投資者因過度投資 L2 和遊戲等某些行業而受到“懲罰”，但因參與 Memecoins 和人工智慧等其他行業而受到“獎勵”。

In contrast, in the last cycle, “you could basically bet on anything and beat $BTC.” According to the analyst, the market will likely continue experiencing specific sector outperformance despite the retail liquidity injection.

相比之下，在上一個週期中，“你基本上可以押注任何東西並擊敗 BTC。”該分析師表示，儘管零售流動性注入，但市場可能會繼續經歷特定行業的優異表現。

He also explained that “crypto is an attention economy,” and money will flow where attention is. As a Result, even the projects with the best technology won't perform if there isn't an exciting reason to buy.

他還解釋說，“加密貨幣是一種注意力經濟”，資金會流向注意力所在的地方。因此，如果沒有令人興奮的購買理由，即使是擁有最好技術的項目也不會發揮作用。

Deutscher's second takeaway highlights the market's current ATH dilution. As he points out, thousands of new products are being launched daily, and “low float/high FDV VC coins are launching in the billions.” These launches are outpacing the new liquidity, causing altcoins to struggle with performance.

多伊徹的第二個要點凸顯了市場目前的 ATH 稀釋。正如他指出的那樣，每天都有數以千計的新產品推出，“低流通量/高 FDV 的 VC 幣正在推出數十億種。”這些發行的速度超過了新的流動性，導致山寨幣的表現陷入困境。

More Room For Altcoins To Catch Up

山寨幣還有更多追趕的空間

The analyst's third point explains that the bull run has been led by Bitcoin and spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Based on this, he considers it unsurprising that altcoins have “hardly pumped” so far.

分析師的第三點解釋說，牛市是由比特幣和現貨比特幣交易所交易基金（ETF）引領的。基於此，他認為山寨幣到目前為止「幾乎沒有上漲」並不奇怪。

Various crypto analysts and experts share this opinion. Alex Krüger previously stated that the cycle has been “almost entirely” driven by the Bitcoin ETFs' momentum.

許多加密貨幣分析師和專家都同意這一點。 Alex Krüger 先前曾表示，這一週期「幾乎完全」是由比特幣 ETF 的勢頭推動的。

Deutscher sees Altcoins' underperformance as a bullish signal since Bitcoin's dominance has been instrumental in previous cycles. To him, this performance allows “more room to play catch up” and could drive altcoins to unseen highs.

多伊徹認為山寨幣的表現不佳是一個看漲訊號，因為比特幣的主導地位在先前的周期中發揮了重要作用。對他來說，這種表現讓“有更多的追趕空間”，並可能推動山寨幣達到前所未見的高點。

The analyst believes the market needs another catalyst for a true Altcoins season. Despite this, he highlights that many investors have had a record Q1 “even in mildly bullish conditions for most alts.”

這位分析師認為，市場需要另一個催化劑來推動真正的山寨幣季節。儘管如此，他強調，“即使在大多數另類投資溫和看漲的情況下”，許多投資者的第一季業績仍創歷史新高。

Ultimately, Deutscher considers there is still room to make big profits this cycle “even without the face-melting altseason we all crave.”

最終，多伊徹認為，“即使沒有我們都渴望的令人心碎的山寨季”，這個週期仍有賺取巨額利潤的空間。