山寨币本周期表现逊于比特币，但分析师认为还有追赶的空间

在这个牛市周期中，加密货币市场一直在冲破比特币的顶峰并享受看涨势头。然而，投资者希望发生地震性爆炸，将山寨币推向新高。

Investors in the crypto market have been riding high on Bitcoin's wave during this bull cycle, hoping for a surge that will propel altcoins to new peaks.

在本次牛市周期中，加密货币市场的投资者一直在比特币的浪潮中乘势而上，希望比特币的飙升将山寨币推向新的峰值。

However, recent data reveals that only a handful of altcoins have managed to hit a new all-time high (ATH) against Bitcoin since FTX's fall. According to a crypto analyst, this is due to several factors, including changing asset selection dynamics and the market's focus on specific sectors.

然而，最近的数据显示，自 FTX 下跌以来，只有少数山寨币兑比特币创下了历史新高 (ATH)。一位加密货币分析师表示，这是由于多种因素造成的，包括资产选择动态的变化以及市场对特定行业的关注。

Only Eight Altcoins Hit New ATHs vs. Bitcoin This Cycle

本周期只有八种山寨币与比特币相比达到新的 ATH

On Friday, March 17, a crypto analyst named Miles Deutscher shared a curious observation about the crypto market. Since November 2022, only eight altcoins have broken their previous ATH against the flagship cryptocurrency.

3 月 17 日星期五，一位名叫 Miles Deutscher 的加密货币分析师分享了对加密货币市场的好奇观察。自 2022 年 11 月以来，只有 8 种山寨币相对于旗舰加密货币突破了之前的 ATH。

To put this in perspective, here are the tokens that achieved this feat: Render (RNDR), Tellor (TRB), Injective (INJ), Astar (ASTR), SSV Network (SSV), SingularityNET (AGIX), True Wallet Token (TWT), and Binance Coin (BNB).

为了正确看待这一点，以下是实现这一壮举的代币：Render (RNDR)、Tellor (TRB)、Injective (INJ)、Astar (ASTR)、SSV Network (SSV)、SingularityNET (AGIX)、True Wallet Token ( TWT）和币安币（BNB）。

notably, RNDR was the last to accomplish this on March 11, and the list only includes altcoins that were launched before FTX's collapse.

值得注意的是，RNDR 是最后一个在 3 月 11 日实现这一目标的，并且该列表仅包括 FTX 崩溃之前推出的山寨币。

Deutscher initially found the news shocking, but it made sense to him upon further analysis. He highlighted some takeaways based on the singularities of this run.

多伊彻最初觉得这个消息令人震惊，但经过进一步分析，他觉得这是有道理的。他根据这次运行的奇点强调了一些要点。

First, the analyst considers that asset selection dynamics have changed from previous cycles. Investors have been “punished” for being overexposed to certain sectors like L2 and gaming and “rewarded” for participating in others like Memecoins and AI.

首先，分析师认为资产选择动态与之前的周期相比已经发生了变化。投资者因过度投资 L2 和游戏等某些行业而受到“惩罚”，但因参与 Memecoins 和人工智能等其他行业而受到“奖励”。

In contrast, in the last cycle, “you could basically bet on anything and beat $BTC.” According to the analyst, the market will likely continue experiencing specific sector outperformance despite the retail liquidity injection.

相比之下，在上一个周期中，“你基本上可以押注任何东西并击败 BTC。”该分析师表示，尽管零售流动性注入，但市场可能会继续经历特定行业的优异表现。

He also explained that “crypto is an attention economy,” and money will flow where attention is. As a Result, even the projects with the best technology won't perform if there isn't an exciting reason to buy.

他还解释说，“加密货币是一种注意力经济”，资金会流向注意力所在的地方。因此，如果没有令人兴奋的购买理由，即使是拥有最好技术的项目也不会发挥作用。

Deutscher's second takeaway highlights the market's current ATH dilution. As he points out, thousands of new products are being launched daily, and “low float/high FDV VC coins are launching in the billions.” These launches are outpacing the new liquidity, causing altcoins to struggle with performance.

多伊彻的第二个要点凸显了市场当前的 ATH 稀释。正如他指出的那样，每天都有数以千计的新产品推出，“低流通量/高 FDV 的 VC 币正在推出数十亿种。”这些发行的速度超过了新的流动性，导致山寨币的表现陷入困境。

More Room For Altcoins To Catch Up

山寨币还有更多追赶的空间

The analyst's third point explains that the bull run has been led by Bitcoin and spot BTC exchange-traded funds (ETFs). Based on this, he considers it unsurprising that altcoins have “hardly pumped” so far.

分析师的第三点解释说，牛市是由比特币和现货比特币交易所交易基金（ETF）引领的。基于此，他认为山寨币到目前为止“几乎没有上涨”并不奇怪。

Various crypto analysts and experts share this opinion. Alex Krüger previously stated that the cycle has been “almost entirely” driven by the Bitcoin ETFs' momentum.

许多加密货币分析师和专家都同意这一观点。 Alex Krüger 此前曾表示，这一周期“几乎完全”是由比特币 ETF 的势头推动的。

Deutscher sees Altcoins' underperformance as a bullish signal since Bitcoin's dominance has been instrumental in previous cycles. To him, this performance allows “more room to play catch up” and could drive altcoins to unseen highs.

多伊彻认为山寨币的表现不佳是一个看涨信号，因为比特币的主导地位在之前的周期中发挥了重要作用。对他来说，这种表现让“有更多的追赶空间”，并可能推动山寨币达到前所未见的高点。

The analyst believes the market needs another catalyst for a true Altcoins season. Despite this, he highlights that many investors have had a record Q1 “even in mildly bullish conditions for most alts.”

这位分析师认为，市场需要另一种催化剂来推动真正的山寨币季节。尽管如此，他强调，“即使在大多数另类投资温和看涨的情况下”，许多投资者的第一季度业绩仍创历史新高。

Ultimately, Deutscher considers there is still room to make big profits this cycle “even without the face-melting altseason we all crave.”

最终，多伊彻认为，“即使没有我们都渴望的令人心碎的山寨季”，这个周期仍有赚取巨额利润的空间。