山寨幣：更深層加密貨幣危機的前兆？

過去幾個月，BNB、Cardano、Avalanche 等二級加密市場一直在下滑，且沒有明顯的復甦前景。

Altcoin investors are facing a bleak reality as the market has been unkind to them for the past few months. Secondary crypto markets like BNB, Cardano, and Avalanche have been on a continuous decline with no clear prospect of recovery. This situation has led some analysts to believe that it could be a precursor to a deeper crypto crisis. We will delve deeper into the matter by examining concrete data and exploring the broader implications, to understand why this asset class seems to be teetering on its foundations.

山寨幣投資者面臨著慘淡的現實，因為過去幾個月市場對他們並不友善。 BNB、Cardano 和 Avalanche 等二級加密市場一直在持續下滑，且沒有明顯的復甦前景。這種情況使一些分析師認為這可能是更深層的加密貨幣危機的前兆。我們將透過檢查具體數據並探索更廣泛的影響來更深入地研究這個問題，以了解為什麼該資產類別的基礎似乎搖搖欲墜。

Altcoins: A Worrying Dependence on Bitcoin

山寨幣：對比特幣的令人擔憂的依賴

The survival and performance of altcoins appear closely linked to those of Bitcoin. Without a significant rise in the price of Bitcoin, a bull market for altcoins seems improbable. For example, BNB (Binance Coin) recently broke a major support, a level theoretically meant to trigger buying. However, the expected rebound did not materialize, exposing the fragility of this market once seen as supported by solid fundamentals. This dynamic is not limited to BNB but also includes other cryptos like Cardano and Avalanche.

山寨幣的生存和表現似乎與比特幣密切相關。如果比特幣價格沒有大幅上漲，山寨幣的牛市似乎不太可能出現。例如，BNB（幣安幣）最近突破了主要支撐位，理論上該水平意味著觸發買盤。然而，預期的反彈並未實現，暴露了這個曾經被視為有堅實基本面支撐的市場的脆弱性。這種動態不僅限於 BNB，還包括 Cardano 和 Avalanche 等其他加密貨幣。

Recent data illustrates a striking contrast between the popularity of certain altcoins and their actual market performance. Cardano, present for nearly seven years with a market capitalization of $12.5 billion, shows a Total Value Locked (TVL) in stablecoins of only $13 million, a sign of a lack of confidence and liquidity. The Avalanche crypto, once propelled by the 2021 GameFi hype, saw its market capitalization drop from $24 billion to $7 billion, while the liquidity of its stablecoins collapsed. These figures reveal a reality: despite their visibility and promises, many altcoins struggle to convince investors of their enduring value.

最近的數據表明，某些山寨幣的受歡迎程度與其實際市場表現之間存在鮮明對比。卡爾達諾成立近七年，市值達到 125 億美元，穩定幣的總鎖定價值（TVL）僅為 1,300 萬美元，這是缺乏信心和流動性的跡象。曾受 2021 年 GameFi 炒作推動的 Avalanche 加密貨幣市值從 240 億美元跌至 70 億美元，而其穩定幣的流動性也崩潰了。這些數字揭示了一個現實：儘管它們具有知名度和前景，但許多山寨幣仍難以讓投資者相信其持久價值。

Weak Signals in the Crypto Market

加密貨幣市場的疲軟訊號

Current technical analysis paints an equally worrisome picture for altcoins. A key indicator, the TradingView “Others” chart, which measures the market cap of cryptos outside the top 10, shows significant resistance at the levels of the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. If the market fails to break through these critical levels, another decline may occur. These resistances indicate a deep lack of confidence and the inability of altcoins to attract significant capital flows without a Bitcoin recovery.

目前的技術分析為山寨幣描繪了同樣令人擔憂的景象。 TradingView「其他」圖表是一個關鍵指標，用於衡量前 10 名之外的加密貨幣的市值，該圖表顯示 100 日和 200 日移動平均線水平存在顯著阻力。如果市場未能突破這些關鍵水平，可能會出現另一次下跌。這些阻力顯示人們嚴重缺乏信心，在比特幣不復甦的情況下，山寨幣無法吸引大量資本流動。

Moreover, investor interest is increasingly turning towards projects with solid foundations and robust liquidity, sidelining altcoins that struggle to justify their value. The risk of prolonged stagnation is real: the continued decline in stablecoin liquidity on Avalanche is a striking example, illustrating a flight of capital to assets perceived as safer. For altcoins, the challenge is twofold: overcoming technical resistances and restoring investor confidence.

此外，投資者的興趣越來越轉向具有堅實基礎和強勁流動性的項目，而那些難以證明其價值的山寨幣則被邊緣化。長期停滯的風險是真實存在的：Avalanche 上穩定幣流動性的持續下降就是一個引人注目的例子，說明資本正在逃往被認為更安全的資產。對於山寨幣來說，挑戰是雙重的：克服技術阻力和恢復投資者信心。

The current situation of altcoins highlights a structural fragility, largely due to their dependence on Bitcoin and a lack of solid fundamentals. While technical data and market indicators point to difficult resistances to overcome, investor confidence also remains shaky. The decline in liquidity, the collapse of market caps, and the poor performance of some flagship cryptos underscore a credibility crisis for this asset class. To hope for a recovery, altcoins will need to overcome technical barriers and restore lasting investor confidence by demonstrating their real value and utility in the long term. Without this, the risk of a prolonged decline remains ever-present.

山寨幣的現狀凸顯了結構性脆弱性，很大程度上是由於它們對比特幣的依賴以及缺乏堅實的基本面。儘管技術數據和市場指標表明存在難以克服的阻力，但投資者信心仍然不穩定。流動性下降、市值崩潰以及一些旗艦加密貨幣的糟糕表現凸顯了該資產類別的可信度危機。為了實現復甦，山寨幣需要克服技術障礙，並透過展示其真正的價值和長期效用來恢復投資者的持久信心。如果沒有這一點，長期衰退的風險仍然存在。

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Holder of a Sciences Po Toulouse degree and a blockchain consultant certification from Alyra, I joined the Cointribune team in 2019. Believing in blockchain's potential to revolutionize multiple sectors of the economy, I am committed to educating and informing the general public about this evolving ecosystem. My goal is to help everyone better understand blockchain and its applications, enabling them to participate in this technological revolution. I strive to provide an objective analysis of current events, decipher market trends, highlight the latest technological innovations, and put into perspective the economic and societal stakes of this unfolding revolution.

我擁有圖盧茲政治學院學位和Alyra 的區塊鏈顧問認證，於2019 年加入Cointribune 團隊。 。我的目標是幫助大家更了解區塊鏈及其應用，讓他們參與這場科技革命。我努力對時事進行客觀分析，解讀市場趨勢，突顯最新的技術創新，並透視這場正在展開的革命的經濟和社會利益。