山寨币：更深层次加密货币危机的前兆？

过去几个月，BNB、Cardano、Avalanche 等二级加密市场一直在下滑，且没有明显的复苏前景。

Altcoin investors are facing a bleak reality as the market has been unkind to them for the past few months. Secondary crypto markets like BNB, Cardano, and Avalanche have been on a continuous decline with no clear prospect of recovery. This situation has led some analysts to believe that it could be a precursor to a deeper crypto crisis. We will delve deeper into the matter by examining concrete data and exploring the broader implications, to understand why this asset class seems to be teetering on its foundations.

山寨币投资者面临着惨淡的现实，因为过去几个月市场对他们并不友善。 BNB、Cardano 和 Avalanche 等二级加密市场一直在持续下滑，且没有明显的复苏前景。这种情况使一些分析师认为这可能是更深层次的加密货币危机的前兆。我们将通过检查具体数据并探索更广泛的影响来更深入地研究这个问题，以了解为什么该资产类别的基础似乎摇摇欲坠。

Altcoins: A Worrying Dependence on Bitcoin

山寨币：对比特币的令人担忧的依赖

The survival and performance of altcoins appear closely linked to those of Bitcoin. Without a significant rise in the price of Bitcoin, a bull market for altcoins seems improbable. For example, BNB (Binance Coin) recently broke a major support, a level theoretically meant to trigger buying. However, the expected rebound did not materialize, exposing the fragility of this market once seen as supported by solid fundamentals. This dynamic is not limited to BNB but also includes other cryptos like Cardano and Avalanche.

山寨币的生存和表现似乎与比特币密切相关。如果比特币价格没有大幅上涨，山寨币的牛市似乎不太可能出现。例如，BNB（币安币）最近突破了主要支撑位，理论上该水平意味着触发买盘。然而，预期的反弹并未实现，暴露了这个曾经被视为有坚实基本面支撑的市场的脆弱性。这种动态不仅限于 BNB，还包括 Cardano 和 Avalanche 等其他加密货币。

Recent data illustrates a striking contrast between the popularity of certain altcoins and their actual market performance. Cardano, present for nearly seven years with a market capitalization of $12.5 billion, shows a Total Value Locked (TVL) in stablecoins of only $13 million, a sign of a lack of confidence and liquidity. The Avalanche crypto, once propelled by the 2021 GameFi hype, saw its market capitalization drop from $24 billion to $7 billion, while the liquidity of its stablecoins collapsed. These figures reveal a reality: despite their visibility and promises, many altcoins struggle to convince investors of their enduring value.

最近的数据表明，某些山寨币的受欢迎程度与其实际市场表现之间存在鲜明对比。卡尔达诺成立近七年，市值达到 125 亿美元，稳定币的总锁定价值（TVL）仅为 1300 万美元，这是缺乏信心和流动性的迹象。曾受 2021 年 GameFi 炒作推动的 Avalanche 加密货币市值从 240 亿美元跌至 70 亿美元，而其稳定币的流动性也崩溃了。这些数字揭示了一个现实：尽管它们具有知名度和前景，但许多山寨币仍难以让投资者相信其持久价值。

Weak Signals in the Crypto Market

加密货币市场的疲弱信号

Current technical analysis paints an equally worrisome picture for altcoins. A key indicator, the TradingView “Others” chart, which measures the market cap of cryptos outside the top 10, shows significant resistance at the levels of the 100-day and 200-day moving averages. If the market fails to break through these critical levels, another decline may occur. These resistances indicate a deep lack of confidence and the inability of altcoins to attract significant capital flows without a Bitcoin recovery.

当前的技术分析为山寨币描绘了同样令人担忧的景象。 TradingView“其他”图表是一个关键指标，用于衡量前 10 名之外的加密货币的市值，该图表显示 100 日和 200 日移动平均线水平存在显着阻力。如果市场未能突破这些关键水平，可能会出现另一次下跌。这些阻力表明人们严重缺乏信心，并且在比特币不复苏的情况下，山寨币无法吸引大量资本流动。

Moreover, investor interest is increasingly turning towards projects with solid foundations and robust liquidity, sidelining altcoins that struggle to justify their value. The risk of prolonged stagnation is real: the continued decline in stablecoin liquidity on Avalanche is a striking example, illustrating a flight of capital to assets perceived as safer. For altcoins, the challenge is twofold: overcoming technical resistances and restoring investor confidence.

此外，投资者的兴趣越来越转向具有坚实基础和强劲流动性的项目，而那些难以证明其价值的山寨币则被边缘化。长期停滞的风险是真实存在的：Avalanche 上稳定币流动性的持续下降就是一个引人注目的例子，说明资本正在逃往被认为更安全的资产。对于山寨币来说，挑战是双重的：克服技术阻力和恢复投资者信心。

The current situation of altcoins highlights a structural fragility, largely due to their dependence on Bitcoin and a lack of solid fundamentals. While technical data and market indicators point to difficult resistances to overcome, investor confidence also remains shaky. The decline in liquidity, the collapse of market caps, and the poor performance of some flagship cryptos underscore a credibility crisis for this asset class. To hope for a recovery, altcoins will need to overcome technical barriers and restore lasting investor confidence by demonstrating their real value and utility in the long term. Without this, the risk of a prolonged decline remains ever-present.

山寨币的现状凸显了结构性脆弱性，很大程度上是由于它们对比特币的依赖以及缺乏坚实的基本面。尽管技术数据和市场指标表明存在难以克服的阻力，但投资者信心仍然不稳定。流动性下降、市值崩溃以及一些旗舰加密货币的糟糕表现凸显了该资产类别的可信度危机。为了实现复苏，山寨币需要克服技术障碍，并通过展示其真正的价值和长期效用来恢复投资者的持久信心。如果没有这一点，长期衰退的风险仍然存在。

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Holder of a Sciences Po Toulouse degree and a blockchain consultant certification from Alyra, I joined the Cointribune team in 2019. Believing in blockchain's potential to revolutionize multiple sectors of the economy, I am committed to educating and informing the general public about this evolving ecosystem. My goal is to help everyone better understand blockchain and its applications, enabling them to participate in this technological revolution. I strive to provide an objective analysis of current events, decipher market trends, highlight the latest technological innovations, and put into perspective the economic and societal stakes of this unfolding revolution.

我拥有图卢兹政治学院学位和 Alyra 的区块链顾问认证，于 2019 年加入 Cointribune 团队。我相信区块链有可能彻底改变多个经济领域，因此致力于向公众宣传和介绍这个不断发展的生态系统。我的目标是帮助大家更好地了解区块链及其应用，让他们参与到这场技术革命中。我努力对时事进行客观分析，解读市场趋势，突出最新的技术创新，并透视这场正在展开的革命的经济和社会利益。