山寨幣後來會追上比特幣嗎？

幾個月來，分析師一直認為山寨幣季節已經結束。但在那個時期，這些預測未能成為現實。

Several analysts have predicted the arrival of altcoin season for months. However, these predictions have yet to materialize. Now, with Bitcoin’s [BTC] price dropping to its lowest in two months, the speculation is once again circulating.

數月來，幾位分析師一直預測山寨幣季節即將到來。然而，這些預測尚未實現。現在，隨著比特幣的價格跌至兩個月來的最低點，這種猜測再次流傳。

Altcoin season, also known as alt season, is a cycle in which other cryptocurrencies outperform BTC. To confirm this market phase, at least 75% of the top 50 alts by market cap must out-perform the number one cryptocurrency.

山寨幣季節，也稱為山寨幣季節，是其他加密貨幣表現優於比特幣的週期。為了確認這個市場階段，市值前 50 名的替代品中至少有 75% 的表現必須優於第一名的加密貨幣。

But throughout this cycle, many of these cryptocurrencies have struggled to match Bitcoin’s dominance. In most cases, Bitcoin has been leading the rise and fall of the broader crypto market.

但在整個週期中，許多加密貨幣一直難以匹敵比特幣的主導地位。在大多數情況下，比特幣一直引領著更廣泛的加密貨幣市場的興衰。

Will alts later catch Bitcoin?

替代品後來會追上比特幣嗎？

One technical indicator that can provide insight into the possibility of an alt season is the TOTAL2 chart. This chart measures the total market cap of all other cryptocurrencies in the market, excluding BTC.

TOTAL2 圖表是一項可以洞察替代季節可能性的技術指標。這張圖表衡量了市場上所有其他加密貨幣的總市值，不包括 BTC。

When this indicator surges, it lends credence to the prospect of a nearing alt season. However, a substantial decline suggests otherwise.

當這項指標飆升時，預示著山寨幣季節即將到來。然而，大幅下降表明事實並非如此。

According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, the TOTAL2 market cap stood at $960.23 billion at press time. Over the last six months, this indicated a 25.63% increase. However, the last 30 days up until the last 24 hours have been torrid for it.

根據 AMBCrypto 的分析，截至發稿時 TOTAL2 市值為 9,602.3 億美元。在過去六個月中，這表明增長了 25.63%。然而，過去 30 天直到最後 24 小時都非常炎熱。

Source: TradingView

來源：TradingView

Specifically, the value dropped 15.08% within the last month and 4.13% in the last seven days. Considering the current state, it might be reasonable to say that altcoins may not experience respite soon.

具體而言，上月下跌15.08%，近7日下跌4.13%。考慮到目前的狀況，可以合理地說，山寨幣可能不會很快得到喘息。

However, if the value begins to rise and gets closer to a $1 trillion market cap, then the possibility of all-inclusive price increase might heighten.

然而，如果價值開始上漲並接近1兆美元的市值，那麼全包價格上漲的可能性可能會增加。

Memes are the ones to lead, some analysts say

一些分析師表示，迷因才是主導

Several analysts have commented on the possible performance of these coins. For example, Murad, an analyst on X, opined that memecoins are going to lead the surge whether altcoin season comes or not.

幾位分析師對這些代幣的可能表現發表了評論。例如，X 分析師 Murad 認為，無論山寨幣季節是否到來，迷因幣都將引領潮流。

In his post, Murad noted that,

穆拉德在他的貼文中指出，

“If an Alt Season happens, Memes will outperform the Alts. If an Alt Season doesn’t happen, Memes will outperform the Alts.”

「如果發生 Alt 賽季，Memes 將勝過 Alts。如果 Alt 賽季沒有發生，Memes 將超越 Alts。

From the performance of cryptos this year, one cannot deny that his opinion could be valid. This is because the meme coins like Pepe [PEPE], Bonk [BONK], Floki [FLOKI], and a host of others have outperformed many other altcoins.

從今年加密貨幣的表現來看，不能否認他的觀點是有道理的。這是因為 Pepe [PEPE]、Bonk [BONK]、Floki [FLOKI] 等迷因幣的表現優於許多其他山寨幣。

If this remains the case when the market rebounds, then Murad’s stance would be validated. Another pseudonymous trader Mister Crypto did not state his preference.

如果市場反彈時情況仍然如此，那麼穆拉德的立場將會得到驗證。另一位匿名交易員 Crypto 先生並沒有表明他的偏好。

However, on the 1st of July, he mentioned that the plunge in prices have offered a rare buying opportunity. He wrote,

然而，7月1日，他提到價格暴跌提供了一個難得的買入機會。他寫了，

“To be honest, so many Altcoin charts are looking like great buys right now. Most of them will easily 30x.”

「說實話，現在很多山寨幣圖表看起來都非常值得買。他們中的大多數人很容易就會增長 30 倍。

ETH’s role has not come into play

ETH的作用還沒有發揮出來

While these predictions are subject to market conditions, there were others looking at the ETH/BTC chart to confirm their bias. The ETH/BTC chart shows if Bitcoin is outperforming Ethereum [ETH] or it is the other way around.

雖然這些預測受到市場條件的影響，但也有其他人透過查看 ETH/BTC 圖表來確認他們的偏見。 ETH/BTC 圖表顯示比特幣的表現是否優於以太幣 [ETH]，或反之亦然。

Historically, when ETH beats BTC to its game, it offers altcoins the chance to perform better than the king coin. But if BTC leads, altcoin season becomes hard to come by.

從歷史上看，當 ETH 在遊戲中擊敗 BTC 時，它為山寨幣提供了比王幣表現更好的機會。但如果比特幣領先，山寨幣季節就很難到來。

At press time, AMBCrypto observed that the ETH/BTC chart was down to 0.054. This was a 1.62% decrease in the last seven days. Some days ago, the price was 0.056.

截至發稿時，AMBCrypto 觀察到 ETH/BTC 圖表已跌至 0.054。過去 7 天下降了 1.62%。前幾天，價格是0.056。

Source: TradingView

來源：TradingView

But the recent value means 1 ETH can only buy 0.054 BTC. If this gets better, altcoin season improves. If not, the market phase could be delayed.

但最近的價值意味著1 ETH只能購買0.054 BTC。如果情況好轉，山寨幣季節就會改善。如果沒有，市場階段可能會被延後。

In the meantime, the broader market could be waiting for the spot Ethereum ETFs to start trading before they get confirmation of an altcoin season.

與此同時，更廣泛的市場可能正在等待現貨以太坊 ETF 在山寨幣季節得到確認之前開始交易。

Realistic or not, here’s ETH’s market cap in BTC terms

不管現實與否，這是以 BTC 計算的 ETH 市值

Though the event was initially predicted to start on the 2nd of July, expectations have now shifted toward the 8th.

儘管該活動最初預計將於 7​​ 月 2 日開始，但現在預期已轉向 8 日。

If ETH mirrors Bitcoin’s performance after its own approval in January, it would be great for altcoins. But if it does not, then altcoin season might be far away.

如果 ETH 在 1 月獲得批准後能夠模仿比特幣的表現，那麼對於山寨幣來說將是一件好事。但如果沒有，那麼山寨幣季節可能還很遙遠。