山寨币后来会赶上比特币吗？

几个月来，分析师一直认为山寨币季节已经结束。但在那个时代，这些预测未能成为现实。

Several analysts have predicted the arrival of altcoin season for months. However, these predictions have yet to materialize. Now, with Bitcoin’s [BTC] price dropping to its lowest in two months, the speculation is once again circulating.

数月来，几位分析师一直预测山寨币季节即将到来。然而，这些预测尚未实现。现在，随着比特币的价格跌至两个月来的最低点，这种猜测再次流传。

Altcoin season, also known as alt season, is a cycle in which other cryptocurrencies outperform BTC. To confirm this market phase, at least 75% of the top 50 alts by market cap must out-perform the number one cryptocurrency.

山寨币季节，也称为山寨币季节，是其他加密货币表现优于比特币的周期。为了确认这个市场阶段，市值排名前 50 名的替代品中至少有 75% 的表现必须优于排名第一的加密货币。

But throughout this cycle, many of these cryptocurrencies have struggled to match Bitcoin’s dominance. In most cases, Bitcoin has been leading the rise and fall of the broader crypto market.

但在整个周期中，许多加密货币一直难以匹敌比特币的主导地位。在大多数情况下，比特币一直引领着更广泛的加密货币市场的兴衰。

Will alts later catch Bitcoin?

替代品后来会赶上比特币吗？

One technical indicator that can provide insight into the possibility of an alt season is the TOTAL2 chart. This chart measures the total market cap of all other cryptocurrencies in the market, excluding BTC.

TOTAL2 图表是一项可以洞察替代季节可能性的技术指标。该图表衡量了市场上所有其他加密货币的总市值，不包括 BTC。

When this indicator surges, it lends credence to the prospect of a nearing alt season. However, a substantial decline suggests otherwise.

当这一指标飙升时，就预示着山寨币季节即将到来。然而，大幅下降表明事实并非如此。

According to AMBCrypto’s analysis, the TOTAL2 market cap stood at $960.23 billion at press time. Over the last six months, this indicated a 25.63% increase. However, the last 30 days up until the last 24 hours have been torrid for it.

根据 AMBCrypto 的分析，截至发稿时 TOTAL2 市值为 9602.3 亿美元。在过去六个月中，这表明增长了 25.63%。然而，过去 30 天直到最后 24 小时都非常炎热。

Source: TradingView

来源：TradingView

Specifically, the value dropped 15.08% within the last month and 4.13% in the last seven days. Considering the current state, it might be reasonable to say that altcoins may not experience respite soon.

具体而言，上月下跌15.08%，近7日下跌4.13%。考虑到目前的状况，可以合理地说，山寨币可能不会很快得到喘息。

However, if the value begins to rise and gets closer to a $1 trillion market cap, then the possibility of all-inclusive price increase might heighten.

然而，如果价值开始上涨并接近1万亿美元的市值，那么全包价格上涨的可能性可能会增加。

Memes are the ones to lead, some analysts say

一些分析师表示，模因才是主导

Several analysts have commented on the possible performance of these coins. For example, Murad, an analyst on X, opined that memecoins are going to lead the surge whether altcoin season comes or not.

几位分析师对这些代币的可能表现发表了评论。例如，X 分析师 Murad 认为，无论山寨币季节是否到来，模因币都将引领潮流。

In his post, Murad noted that,

穆拉德在他的帖子中指出，

“If an Alt Season happens, Memes will outperform the Alts. If an Alt Season doesn’t happen, Memes will outperform the Alts.”

“如果发生 Alt 赛季，Memes 将胜过 Alts。如果 Alt 赛季没有发生，Memes 将超越 Alts。”

From the performance of cryptos this year, one cannot deny that his opinion could be valid. This is because the meme coins like Pepe [PEPE], Bonk [BONK], Floki [FLOKI], and a host of others have outperformed many other altcoins.

从今年加密货币的表现来看，不能否认他的观点是有道理的。这是因为 Pepe [PEPE]、Bonk [BONK]、Floki [FLOKI] 等模因币的表现优于许多其他山寨币。

If this remains the case when the market rebounds, then Murad’s stance would be validated. Another pseudonymous trader Mister Crypto did not state his preference.

如果市场反弹时情况仍然如此，那么穆拉德的立场将得到验证。另一位匿名交易员 Crypto 先生没有表明他的偏好。

However, on the 1st of July, he mentioned that the plunge in prices have offered a rare buying opportunity. He wrote,

然而，7月1日，他提到价格暴跌提供了难得的买入机会。他写了，

“To be honest, so many Altcoin charts are looking like great buys right now. Most of them will easily 30x.”

“说实话，现在很多山寨币图表看起来都非常值得买入。他们中的大多数人很容易就会增长 30 倍。”

ETH’s role has not come into play

ETH的作用还没有发挥出来

While these predictions are subject to market conditions, there were others looking at the ETH/BTC chart to confirm their bias. The ETH/BTC chart shows if Bitcoin is outperforming Ethereum [ETH] or it is the other way around.

虽然这些预测受到市场条件的影响，但也有其他人通过查看 ETH/BTC 图表来确认他们的偏见。 ETH/BTC 图表显示比特币的表现是否优于以太坊 [ETH]，或者反之亦然。

Historically, when ETH beats BTC to its game, it offers altcoins the chance to perform better than the king coin. But if BTC leads, altcoin season becomes hard to come by.

从历史上看，当 ETH 在游戏中击败 BTC 时，它为山寨币提供了比王币表现更好的机会。但如果比特币领先，山寨币季节就很难到来。

At press time, AMBCrypto observed that the ETH/BTC chart was down to 0.054. This was a 1.62% decrease in the last seven days. Some days ago, the price was 0.056.

截至发稿时，AMBCrypto 观察到 ETH/BTC 图表已跌至 0.054。过去 7 天下降了 1.62%。前几天，价格是0.056。

Source: TradingView

来源：TradingView

But the recent value means 1 ETH can only buy 0.054 BTC. If this gets better, altcoin season improves. If not, the market phase could be delayed.

但最近的价值意味着1 ETH只能购买0.054 BTC。如果情况好转，山寨币季节就会改善。如果没有，市场阶段可能会被推迟。

In the meantime, the broader market could be waiting for the spot Ethereum ETFs to start trading before they get confirmation of an altcoin season.

与此同时，更广泛的市场可能正在等待现货以太坊 ETF 在山寨币季节得到确认之前开始交易。

Realistic or not, here’s ETH’s market cap in BTC terms

不管现实与否，这是以 BTC 计算的 ETH 市值

Though the event was initially predicted to start on the 2nd of July, expectations have now shifted toward the 8th.

尽管该活动最初预计将于 7 月 2 日开始，但现在预期已转向 8 日。

If ETH mirrors Bitcoin’s performance after its own approval in January, it would be great for altcoins. But if it does not, then altcoin season might be far away.

如果 ETH 在 1 月份获得批准后能够模仿比特币的表现，那么对于山寨币来说将是一件好事。但如果没有，那么山寨币季节可能还很遥远。