山寨幣季節暫停？數據分析中指數暴跌

山寨幣季節真的來了嗎？數據分析顯示，山寨幣季節指數暴跌，比特幣可能需要首先創下新高。

Altcoin Season on Hold? Index Tumbles Amidst Data Analysis

山寨幣季節暫停？數據分析中指數暴跌

The crypto world's been buzzing about Altcoin Season, but recent data throws a wrench into the party. The Altcoin Season Index is tumbling, leaving many wondering if it's delayed or if Bitcoin needs to lead the charge first. Let's dive into the details.

加密世界一直在熱議山寨幣季節，但最近的數據給這個聚會帶來了麻煩。山寨幣季節指數正在暴跌，讓許多人想知道它是否被推遲，或者比特幣是否需要首先引領潮流。讓我們深入了解細節。

Altcoin Season Index: A Reality Check

山寨幣季節指數：現實檢驗

The Altcoin Season Index, which measures the performance of the top 100 altcoins against Bitcoin over the past 90 days, currently sits at a measly 27/100. Anything below 25 signals a “Bitcoin Season.” Last month it was at 71, nearly in Altcoin Season territory. The recent drop indicates that Bitcoin is currently outperforming altcoins, with the overall market trend favoring the original cryptocurrency.

山寨幣季節指數衡量過去 90 天內排名前 100 的山寨幣相對於比特幣的表現，目前僅為 27/100。任何低於 25 的值都標誌著“比特幣季節”。上個月該數字為 71，幾乎處於山寨幣季節區域。最近的下跌表明比特幣目前的表現優於山寨幣，整體市場趨勢有利於原始加密貨幣。

Bitcoin's Dominance: The Key to Altseason?

比特幣的統治地位：山寨季的關鍵？

Some analysts, like Benjamin Cowen, believe Bitcoin needs to set new all-time highs to truly kick off Altseason. His argument is that Ethereum (ETH) needs to break and hold above $5,000 to fuel the altcoin rally. And for ETH to reach $5,000, Bitcoin likely needs to be soaring, driving up Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) in the process.

本傑明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）等一些分析師認為，比特幣需要創下歷史新高才能真正拉開山寨季的序幕。他的論點是，以太坊 (ETH) 需要突破並保持在 5,000 美元以上才能推動山寨幣的上漲。為了使 ETH 達到 5,000 美元，比特幣可能需要飆升，從而在此過程中推高比特幣的主導地位（BTC.D）。

Challenging the Status Quo: Ethereum's Potential

挑戰現狀：以太坊的潛力

Not everyone agrees that Bitcoin must always lead the way. CryptoBullet analysts point to historical data, noting that Ethereum surged after Bitcoin peaked in both 2017 and 2021. This suggests Ethereum could potentially trigger market momentum independently.

並非所有人都同意比特幣必須始終引領潮流。 CryptoBullet 分析師援引歷史數據，指出以太坊在比特幣於 2017 年和 2021 年見頂後飆升。這表明以太坊有可能獨立觸發市場動力。

ETH/BTC Pair: A Critical Juncture

ETH/BTC 對：關鍵時刻

Regardless of which crypto takes the lead, most analysts agree that the ETH/BTC pair is currently in a crucial zone. Analyst Ted emphasizes that the market hasn't officially entered Altseason yet, noting that altcoin market capitalization (excluding stablecoins) is still 20% below its record high. However, he also highlights the ETH/BTC pair testing a strong support zone (0.032-0.034), which has historically triggered price bounces.

無論哪種加密貨幣佔據領先地位，大多數分析師都認為 ETH/BTC 貨幣對目前處於關鍵區域。分析師 Ted 強調，市場尚未正式進入山寨幣季節，並指出山寨幣市值（不包括穩定幣）仍比歷史高點低 20%。不過，他也強調了 ETH/BTC 貨幣對正在測試強大的支撐區域（0.032-0.034），該區域在歷史上曾引發過價格反彈。

Altcoins Showing Strength

山寨幣展現實力

While the overall trend favors Bitcoin, some altcoins have shown impressive gains. MYX, ASTER, and M have surged by 3765%, 1236%, and 468%, respectively, over the past 90 days. On the other hand, Bitcoin fell by 9.69% during the same period, and major altcoins like GT, DEXE, and LINK also experienced negative returns.

雖然總體趨勢有利於比特幣，但一些山寨幣也表現出了令人印象深刻的漲幅。過去 90 天，MYX、ASTER 和 M 分別飆升 3765%、1236% 和 468%。另一方面，比特幣同期下跌9.69%，GT、DEXE、LINK等主要山寨幣也出現負收益。

A Word on $COIN

關於 $COIN 的一句話

Coinbase's stock ($COIN) is down 3% today. Insider trading activity shows a lot of selling, while institutional investors are more divided. Congress members have traded $COIN stock a few times recently. Analysts have mixed ratings, with a median price target of $400. It is worth noting this article is not financial advice.

Coinbase 的股票 ($COIN) 今天下跌 3%。內幕交易活動顯示大量拋售，而機構投資者的分歧則更大。國會議員最近多次交易 $COIN 股票。分析師的評級不一，目標價中位數為 400 美元。值得注意的是，本文不是財務建議。

The Bottom Line

底線

The debate continues over when Altcoin Season will officially arrive. Data analysis suggests that while some altcoins are thriving, Bitcoin still holds significant sway. Whether Bitcoin needs to hit new highs first or Ethereum can ignite the rally remains to be seen. One thing's for sure: keep your eyes peeled on the ETH/BTC pair, and always do your own research before diving in! It's a wild ride, but hey, that's crypto for ya!

關於山寨幣季節何時正式到來的爭論仍在繼續。數據分析表明，儘管一些山寨幣正在蓬勃發展，但比特幣仍然佔據著重要地位。比特幣是否需要首先創下新高，或者以太坊能否引發反彈還有待觀察。有一點是肯定的：請密切關注 ETH/BTC 貨幣對，並在投入之前先進行自己的研究！這是一次瘋狂的旅程，但是嘿，這對你來說是加密貨幣！