山寨币季节暂停？数据分析中指数暴跌

山寨币季节真的来了吗？数据分析显示，山寨币季节指数暴跌，比特币可能需要首先创下新高。

Altcoin Season on Hold? Index Tumbles Amidst Data Analysis

山寨币季节暂停？数据分析中指数暴跌

The crypto world's been buzzing about Altcoin Season, but recent data throws a wrench into the party. The Altcoin Season Index is tumbling, leaving many wondering if it's delayed or if Bitcoin needs to lead the charge first. Let's dive into the details.

加密世界一直在热议山寨币季节，但最近的数据给这个聚会带来了麻烦。山寨币季节指数正在暴跌，让许多人想知道它是否被推迟，或者比特币是否需要首先引领潮流。让我们深入了解细节。

Altcoin Season Index: A Reality Check

山寨币季节指数：现实检验

The Altcoin Season Index, which measures the performance of the top 100 altcoins against Bitcoin over the past 90 days, currently sits at a measly 27/100. Anything below 25 signals a “Bitcoin Season.” Last month it was at 71, nearly in Altcoin Season territory. The recent drop indicates that Bitcoin is currently outperforming altcoins, with the overall market trend favoring the original cryptocurrency.

山寨币季节指数衡量过去 90 天内排名前 100 的山寨币相对于比特币的表现，目前仅为 27/100。任何低于 25 的值都标志着“比特币季节”。上个月该数字为 71，几乎处于山寨币季节区域。最近的下跌表明比特币目前的表现优于山寨币，整体市场趋势有利于原始加密货币。

Bitcoin's Dominance: The Key to Altseason?

比特币的统治地位：山寨季的关键？

Some analysts, like Benjamin Cowen, believe Bitcoin needs to set new all-time highs to truly kick off Altseason. His argument is that Ethereum (ETH) needs to break and hold above $5,000 to fuel the altcoin rally. And for ETH to reach $5,000, Bitcoin likely needs to be soaring, driving up Bitcoin dominance (BTC.D) in the process.

本杰明·考恩（Benjamin Cowen）等一些分析师认为，比特币需要创下历史新高才能真正拉开山寨季的序幕。他的论点是，以太坊 (ETH) 需要突破并保持在 5,000 美元以上才能推动山寨币的上涨。为了使 ETH 达到 5,000 美元，比特币可能需要飙升，从而在此过程中推高比特币的主导地位（BTC.D）。

Challenging the Status Quo: Ethereum's Potential

挑战现状：以太坊的潜力

Not everyone agrees that Bitcoin must always lead the way. CryptoBullet analysts point to historical data, noting that Ethereum surged after Bitcoin peaked in both 2017 and 2021. This suggests Ethereum could potentially trigger market momentum independently.

并非所有人都同意比特币必须始终引领潮流。 CryptoBullet 分析师援引历史数据，指出以太坊在比特币于 2017 年和 2021 年见顶后飙升。这表明以太坊有可能独立触发市场动力。

ETH/BTC Pair: A Critical Juncture

ETH/BTC 对：关键时刻

Regardless of which crypto takes the lead, most analysts agree that the ETH/BTC pair is currently in a crucial zone. Analyst Ted emphasizes that the market hasn't officially entered Altseason yet, noting that altcoin market capitalization (excluding stablecoins) is still 20% below its record high. However, he also highlights the ETH/BTC pair testing a strong support zone (0.032-0.034), which has historically triggered price bounces.

无论哪种加密货币占据领先地位，大多数分析师都认为 ETH/BTC 货币对目前处于关键区域。分析师 Ted 强调，市场尚未正式进入山寨币季节，并指出山寨币市值（不包括稳定币）仍比历史高点低 20%。不过，他也强调了 ETH/BTC 货币对正在测试强大的支撑区域（0.032-0.034），该区域在历史上曾引发过价格反弹。

Altcoins Showing Strength

山寨币展现实力

While the overall trend favors Bitcoin, some altcoins have shown impressive gains. MYX, ASTER, and M have surged by 3765%, 1236%, and 468%, respectively, over the past 90 days. On the other hand, Bitcoin fell by 9.69% during the same period, and major altcoins like GT, DEXE, and LINK also experienced negative returns.

虽然总体趋势有利于比特币，但一些山寨币也表现出了令人印象深刻的涨幅。过去 90 天，MYX、ASTER 和 M 分别飙升 3765%、1236% 和 468%。另一方面，比特币同期下跌9.69%，GT、DEXE、LINK等主要山寨币也出现负收益。

A Word on $COIN

关于 $COIN 的一句话

Coinbase's stock ($COIN) is down 3% today. Insider trading activity shows a lot of selling, while institutional investors are more divided. Congress members have traded $COIN stock a few times recently. Analysts have mixed ratings, with a median price target of $400. It is worth noting this article is not financial advice.

Coinbase 的股票 ($COIN) 今天下跌 3%。内幕交易活动显示大量抛售，而机构投资者的分歧则更大。国会议员最近多次交易 $COIN 股票。分析师的评级不一，目标价中位数为 400 美元。值得注意的是，本文不是财务建议。

The Bottom Line

底线

The debate continues over when Altcoin Season will officially arrive. Data analysis suggests that while some altcoins are thriving, Bitcoin still holds significant sway. Whether Bitcoin needs to hit new highs first or Ethereum can ignite the rally remains to be seen. One thing's for sure: keep your eyes peeled on the ETH/BTC pair, and always do your own research before diving in! It's a wild ride, but hey, that's crypto for ya!

关于山寨币季节何时正式到来的争论仍在继续。数据分析表明，尽管一些山寨币正在蓬勃发展，但比特币仍然占据着重要地位。比特币是否需要首先创下新高，或者以太坊能否引发反弹还有待观察。有一点是肯定的：请密切关注 ETH/BTC 货币对，并在投入之前先进行自己的研究！这是一次疯狂的旅程，但是嘿，这对你来说是加密货币！