AAVE (AAVE) 價格分析與預測：漲勢會持續嗎？

加密貨幣市場繼續下行，延續了自 7 月 22 日開始的跌勢。

The cryptocurrency market faced a downturn on Aug. 1, extending losses that began on July 22. The market shed about 3% of its value as most cryptocurrencies traded in the red.

加密貨幣市場在 8 月 1 日遭遇低迷，延續了 7 月 22 日開始的跌勢。

However, AAVE stood out with a significant gain of nearly 9% over the past 24 hours. As the broader market encountered difficulties, AAVE’s contrarian performance raised questions about its potential drivers.

然而，AAVE 脫穎而出，在過去 24 小時內大幅上漲近 9%。隨著大盤遇到困難，AAVE 的逆勢表現引發了對其潛在驅動力的質疑。

A closer look at the derivatives market could help uncover some key factors. Data from CoinGlass for July 31 and Aug. 1 showed a substantial imbalance in liquidations, with short positions accounting for a hefty $1.165 million compared to $597,000 in long positions.

仔細研究衍生性商品市場可能有助於發現一些關鍵因素。 CoinGlass 7 月 31 日和 8 月 1 日的數據顯示，清算情況嚴重失衡，空頭部位高達 1,165,000 美元，而多頭部位為 597,000 美元。

Moreover, a dramatic spike in open interest was evident, rising to $124.59 million on July 31 from a low of $80 million. This surge, which represents the total number of outstanding derivative contracts yet to be settled, indicated a significant amount of leverage currently at play in the market.

此外，未平倉合約大幅飆升，7 月 31 日從 8,000 萬美元的低點增至 1.2459 億美元。這一激增代表了尚未結算的未償還衍生性合約總數，顯示目前市場上存在大量槓桿作用。

The current open interest levels are also notably higher than those observed in March 2023, when AAVE’s price was trading at about $90. This historical context could present interesting implications for AAVE’s price trajectory in the current market environment.

目前的未平倉合約水準也明顯高於 2023 年 3 月觀察到的水平，當時 AAVE 的交易價格約為 90 美元。這段歷史背景可能會對當前市場環境下 AAVE 的價格軌跡產生有趣的影響。

AAVE hit a yearly peak of $155 on March 12, following an uptrend that began in mid-June from a support level of around $50. This uptrend formed a five-wave pattern, signaling a new bullish phase.

繼 6 月中旬從 50 美元左右的支撐位開始上升趨勢後，AAVE 於 3 月 12 日觸及 155 美元的年度高峰。這一上升趨勢形成了五浪模式，標誌著新的看漲階段。

Subsequently, the price entered a corrective stage, dropping to $72 by April 13. This level was retested on July 5, completing a five-wave ABCDE correction within a descending triangle. The following rise suggests the beginning of a new bullish phase, as we saw a breakout above its descending flat triangle.

隨後，價格進入修正階段，到4月13日跌至72美元。接下來的上漲表明新的看漲階段的開始，因為我們看到突破了下降的扁平三角形。

Today, AAVE reached a higher high than its July 14 one and slightly surpassed its May 27 one, which is labeled as the D wave from the ABCDE correction. This rise started on July 25, as the price retraced to 0.618 Fibonacci level after its initial breakout uptrend.

今天，AAVE 達到了高於 7 月 14 日高點的高度，並略高於 5 月 27 日的高點，這被標記為 ABCDE 修正的 D 浪。這次上漲始於 7 月 25 日，當時價格在最初突破上升趨勢後回升至 0.618 斐波那契水平。

A closer examination of AAVE’s hourly chart reveals a period of consolidation, characterized by a zig-zag pattern, before the price surged upward today. This price action suggests that AAVE is gearing up for its next move.

仔細觀察 AAVE 的小時圖，可以發現在今天價格飆升之前，存在著一段以鋸齒形形態為特徵的盤整期。這一價格走勢表明 AAVE 正在為下一步行動做準備。

The daily chart, however, presents a more nuanced picture. The RSI is approaching overbought territory, which could indicate a potential reversal on the horizon. Nevertheless, the overall structure of the chart remains bullish, suggesting that AAVE's uptrend is still intact.

然而，日線圖呈現出更為微妙的情況。 RSI 正在接近超買區域，這可能表明即將出現潛在的逆轉。儘管如此，圖表的整體結構仍然看漲，顯示 AAVE 的上升趨勢仍然完好無損。

There are two possibilities ahead. The first scenario suggests that AAVE has marked a third wave of a developing five-wave impulse, which began on July 25. If this scenario plays out, AAVE is likely to break above $120 and continue its ascent toward the $140 area, coinciding with the 1.618 Fibonacci extension.

前面有兩種可能性。第一種情況表明，AAVE 已標誌著 7 月 25 日開始的五波衝擊中的第三波。那契擴展。

The alternative scenario presents a more cautious view. According to this possibility, the rise from July 25 represents a lower-degree B wave within a still-developing ABC pattern.

另一種情況則呈現出較為謹慎的觀點。根據這種可能性，7月25日以來的上漲代表了仍在發展的ABC形態中的較低程度的B浪。

This would imply that the price action from July 15 to July 25 was the first wave of a larger corrective pattern. If this scenario unfolds, AAVE may experience another decline to $100 or slightly below before resuming its upward trajectory.

這意味著 7 月 15 日至 7 月 25 日的價格走勢是較大調整模式的第一波。如果這種情況發生，AAVE 可能會再次下跌至 100 美元或略低於 100 美元，然後再恢復上升軌跡。